Syracuse

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.017th
  Defense+0.0783rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.4%10th
  Defense42.3%52nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1224th
  Defense+1.0594th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0428th
  Defense−0.0697th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.015th
  Defense+0.2437th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense41.1%9th
  Defense46.5%55th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.8%24th
  Defense33.1%48th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.439th
  Defense2.6576th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense24.5%10th
  Defense19.8%49th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.8%12th
  Defense1.8%38th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Syracuse allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   VILL
2. W
   CMU
3. L
   MD
4. L
   ND
5. L
   LOU
6. L
   FSU
7. W
   WAKE
8. L
   CLEM
9. L
   NCSU
10. L
    DUKE
11. L
    PITT
12. L
    BC

Bars above the line: better than expected for Syracuse.

Players, 2014

1. Terrel HuntQB138 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 137th of 199 QBs
   0.57WAR0.36 to 0.81
2. AJ LongQB175 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 140th of 199 QBs
   0.53WAR0.22 to 0.80
3. Jarrod WestWR58 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 73rd of 469 WRs
   0.20WAR0.13 to 0.26
4. Riley DixonP57 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 12th of 94 punters
   0.16WAR0.07 to 0.25
5. Prince-Tyson GulleyRB126 plays · +0.060 pts/play · 166th of 350 RBs
   0.14WAR0.05 to 0.23
6. Steve IshmaelWR29 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 160th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.17
7. Cole MurphyPK14 plays · +0.464 pts/play · 40th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
8. Ben Lewis?35 plays · +0.108 pts/play
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Syracuse's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Syracuse's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NCSUQ4 9:59 4th & 3 at SYR 37, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. vs MDQ3 5:39 4th & 2 at MD 46, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. vs DUKEQ3 10:29 4th & 1 at SYR 21, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. vs NCSUQ3 7:38 4th & 5 at NCSU 37, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at BCQ4 14:43 4th & 1 at SYR 34, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at WAKEQ2 3:03 4th & 1 at SYR 39, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. at BCQ3 12:14 4th & 11 at BC 30, down 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
8. vs NCSUQ2 8:06 4th & 4 at NCSU 44, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

127th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Syracuse's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   VILL
2. W

   CMU
3. L

   MD
4. L

   ND
5. L

   LOU
6. L

   FSU
7. W

   WAKE
8. L

   CLEM
9. L

   NCSU
10. L

    DUKE
11. L

    PITT
12. L

    BC

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Syracuse's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.66
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts−0.21
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04

Game by game

• VILLW 27-26 vs VILL87% → 39%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −48: Timeouts −20, Clock +12
• CMUW 40-3 at CMU72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +34
• MDL 20-34 vs MD54% → 2%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• NDL 15-31 vs ND19% → 1%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −29, Clock −1
• LOUL 6-28 vs LOU44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3
• FSUL 20-38 vs FSU9% → 1%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −17, Clock −1
• WAKEW 30-7 at WAKE67% → 99%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +40, Clock +1
• CLEML 6-16 at CLEM15% → 3%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts −1
• NCSUL 17-24 vs NCSU67% → 6%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• DUKEL 10-27 vs DUKE41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −47, Clock −2
• PITTL 7-30 at PITT31% → 0%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts +1
• BCL 7-28 at BC30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Syracuse's side.

Closest call

SYR 44-41 UNLV (2024) - Syracuse dropped to a 5.7% win probability before pulling it out.