2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · MetLife Stadium
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View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreND score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:52 · Cole Murphy 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:56: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +5.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:31: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 72 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +5.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:39: Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +9.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Terrel Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy BLOCKED) — SYR win probability +10.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:19: Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:34SYR 4th & 8 at ND 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal23.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q1 7:25ND 4th & 14 at ND 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.7%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%average punt
- Q1 5:44SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.4%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q1 4:17ND 4th & 1 at ND 41, tiedClose callPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it74.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:54SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it26.3%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00SYR 4th & 8 at ND 36, tiedClose callPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it29.3%34% to convertField goal29.2%−0.142% to makePuntTheir call29.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:50SYR 4th & 8 at ND 36, tiedClose callPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it29.3%34% to convertField goal29.2%−0.142% to makePuntTheir call29.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:43SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.0%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q2 3:07SYR 4th & 11 at ND 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call18.3%75% to makePunt16.0%−2.3average punt
- Q3 8:20SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 28, down 18Close callWent for it · 10.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.4%average punt
- Q3 5:59SYR 4th & 1 at ND 21, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%71% to convertField goal9.4%−2.074% to makePunt3.2%−8.3average punt
- Q4 7:52SYR 4th & 9 at ND 19, down 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.930% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%77% to makePunt1.6%−2.8average punt
- Q4 1:57ND 4th & 16 at SYR 20, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.814% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%75% to makePunt94.8%−2.1average punt
- Q4 0:55SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 33, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:17SYR 4th & 10 at ND 45, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%30% to convertField goal2.2%−0.325% to makePunt2.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 10:56ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.6%97% to makeGo for two74.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31ND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:39ND Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:19ND Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%−0.297% to makeGo for two96.6%45% to convert
- Q4 5:09SYR Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick6.4%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1FUMBLE9 plays · 66 yds · 3:1180% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
19.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 6 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
20.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 14 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
20.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for 12 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+5
20.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 5 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+27
21.0%
Everett Golson run for 27 yds to the Syrac 16 Everett Golson fumbled, forced by Dyshawn Davis, recovered by Syrac Brandon ReddishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 40 yds · 0:4321% → 22%
NDDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0478% → 76%
Q1 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-7
22.9%
Everett Golson sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 24 Everett Golson fumbled, forced by Isaiah Johnson, recovered by NDame Steve Elmer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
23.6%
Kyle Brindza punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3424% → 24%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
23.6%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 3 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
24.1%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 5 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+16
24.0%
Riley Dixon punt for 42 yds , Cody Riggs returns for 16 yds to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2076% → 75%
SYRDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1525% → 25%
Q1 2:54
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
25.0%
Riley Dixon punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.3%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Brandon Reddish return for no gain to the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5126% → 28%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
26.2%
Gulley, Prince-Tyson rush for no gain to the SYRACUSE36, PENALTY NOTREDAME face mask (Blankenship, Grant) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.9%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD14 plays · 95 yds · 3:4573% → 79%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
27.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
27.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris Brown, broken up by Cameron LynchSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+7
28.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 7 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
27.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 10 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
27.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 9 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
26.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (William Fuller) to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+6
28.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
27.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 10 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
26.9%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Whigham, Julian) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
21.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0723% → 22%
Q2 10:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
23.0%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 1 yd to the Syrac 22Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
22.3%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Adrian Flemming for 8 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
22.3%
Riley Dixon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD1 play · 72 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
16.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 72 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12FG15 plays · 55 yds · 5:1317% → 20%
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+14
16.8%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Kendall Moore for 14 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
17.8%
Hunt, Terrel pass incomplete to West, Jarrod, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Okwara, Romeo) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
18.2%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ben Lewis for 3 yds to the NDame 29 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Steve Ishmael) to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+14
17.4%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 14 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-14
18.1%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 1 yd to the NDame 18 SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Lasker) to the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE17 plays · 54 yds · 2:4080% → 84%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
19.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
17.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+13
17.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 13 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
16.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 9 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-5
16.1%
Golson, Everett pass complete to Fuller, William for 6 yards to the SYRACUSE27, PENALTY NOTREDAME false start (Prosise, C.J.) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+23
16.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 23 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
16.0%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 25 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by Syrac Julian WhighamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15INT6 plays · 50 yds · 1:1520% → 21%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
19.5%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 33 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
21.4%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 15 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+15
21.3%
Terrel Hunt pass intercepted Matthias Farley return for 15 yds to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2682% → 92%
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
18.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 7 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
18.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 7 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
18.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 12 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
17.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 18 yds to the Syrac 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
8.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 3:3411% → 11%
Q3 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
10.8%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 1 yd to the Syrac 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FUMBLE9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2393% → 95%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
7.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 22 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
7.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 4 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
6.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Christian Lombard) to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
4.8%
Greg Bryant run for 4 yds to the Syrac 28 Greg Bryant fumbled, forced by Ritchy Desir, recovered by Syrac Durell EskridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:268% → 19%
NDDrive 20TD11 plays · 50 yds · 4:1689% → 98%
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
11.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+8
11.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for 8 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
8.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 9 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+1
8.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for 1 yd to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
2.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21MISSED FG11 plays · 71 yds · 2:184% → 4%
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+46
4.0%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ben Lewis for 46 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+19
4.5%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 19 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+6
4.2%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 6 yds to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22INT TD7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2498% → 95%
NDDrive 23FG11 plays · 24 yds · 2:4796% → 99%
Q4 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+10
4.4%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Whigham, Julian) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-15
3.0%
Golson, Everett pass complete to Bryant, Greg for no gain to the SYRACUSE12, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul 15 yards to the SYRACUSE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 23
OPP 27
+7
3.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 7 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 1:352% → 3%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.4%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 5 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
2.4%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 3 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
2.4%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 6 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
2.5%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Adrian Flemming for 16 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Terrel Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy BLOCKED)
+10.1
TD · Q3 9:39
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q4 10:19
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
-6