Syracuse

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0934th
  Defense+0.0661st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.8%36th
  Defense41.7%42nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3483rd
  Defense+1.1865th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1250th
  Defense+0.1620th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1736th
  Defense−0.0793rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.8%33rd
  Defense50.0%23rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%45th
  Defense27.0%65th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8627th
  Defense2.7860th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.8%48th
  Defense24.5%87th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.0%72nd
  Defense17.7%73rd

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Syracuse allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNH
2. L
   CAL
3. L
   PITT
4. W
   CONN
5. L
   UVA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Syracuse.

Players, 2026

1. Amari OdomQB41 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 112th of 192 QBs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.21
2. Umari HatcherWR47 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 16th of 364 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.18
3. Steve AngeliQB84 plays · +0.072 pts/play · 129th of 192 QBs
   0.11WAR0.00 to 0.22
4. Tylik HillRB50 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 65th of 320 RBs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.14
5. Ahmad MillerRB30 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 162nd of 320 RBs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08
6. Justus Ross-SimmonsWR17 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 157th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
7. Ju'Juan JohnsonRB34 plays · +0.070 pts/play · 205th of 320 RBs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.07
8. Daunte BacheyieTE12 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 27th of 164 TEs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Syracuse's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  74674635th of 138Roster talent: 746, 35th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20020050th of 138Recruiting: 200, 50th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  35%35%81st of 136Returning production: 35%, 81st of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −0.4−0.472nd of 138SP+ rating so far: −0.4, 72nd of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Syracuse's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at CONNQ3 7:58 4th & 23 at CONN 34, up 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.9 pts
2. at CONNQ4 12:26 4th & 3 at SYR 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at CONNQ2 1:45 4th & 4 at CONN 28, up 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. vs CALQ1 6:55 4th & 8 at CAL 40, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. at UVAQ3 7:28 4th & 10 at UVA 39, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

110th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Syracuse's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UNH
2. L

   CAL
3. L

   PITT
4. W

   CONN
5. L

   UVA

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Syracuse's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.63
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock−0.22
• Timeouts+0.16
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.17

Game by game

• UNHW 66-3 vs UNH98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• CALL 18-21 vs CAL60% → 6%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• PITTL 13-27 at PITT24% → 1%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −1
• CONNW 42-41 at CONN72% → 74%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +19
• UVAL 25-28 at UVA22% → 4%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Syracuse's side.

Closest call

SYR 44-41 UNLV (2024) - Syracuse dropped to a 5.7% win probability before pulling it out.