Syracuse

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.113rd
  Defense+0.1442nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense31.8%2nd
  Defense45.4%31st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2652nd
  Defense+1.2165th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.192nd
  Defense+0.1138th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.0610th
  Defense+0.1949th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense38.3%3rd
  Defense50.0%33rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense21.6%3rd
  Defense33.5%39th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6017th
  Defense3.0139th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.0%6th
  Defense16.6%21st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense21.9%1st
  Defense15.9%43rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Syracuse allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UNC
2. L
   PITT
3. W
   GT
4. L
   DUKE
5. L
   LIB
6. L
   CLEM
7. L
   WAKE
8. L
   BC
9. L
   LOU
10. L
    NCSU
11. L
    ND

Bars above the line: better than expected for Syracuse.

Players, 2020

1. Sean TuckerRB107 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 75th of 338 RBs
   0.35WAR0.28 to 0.44
2. Rex CulpepperQB141 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 130th of 212 QBs
   0.19WAR−0.04 to 0.44
3. Taj HarrisWR77 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 41st of 409 WRs
   0.17WAR0.06 to 0.28
4. Nolan CooneyP55 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 1st of 77 punters
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.22
5. Anthony QueeleyWR45 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 170th of 409 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
6. JaCobian MorganQB49 plays · +0.085 pts/play · 171st of 212 QBs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.15
7. Nykeim JohnsonWR26 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 227th of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.10
8. Tommy DeVitoQB135 plays · +0.025 pts/play · 185th of 212 QBs
   0.06WAR−0.21 to 0.30

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Syracuse's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  57857865th of 127Roster talent: 578, 65th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18218255th of 127Recruiting: 182, 55th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  55%55%82nd of 127Returning production: 55%, 82nd of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.8−9.8106th of 127SP+ rating: −9.8, 106th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Syracuse's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs GTQ4 14:16 4th & 2 at SYR 29, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
2. vs BCQ3 6:20 4th & 4 at BC 28, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at CLEMQ3 5:44 4th & 1 at SYR 41, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs BCQ2 11:59 4th & 2 at BC 17, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. at UNCQ2 6:37 4th & 2 at SYR 39, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. vs LIBQ4 5:20 4th & 10 at SYR 49, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs NCSUQ2 13:40 4th & 3 at NCSU 27, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs LIBQ1 15:00 4th & 1 at SYR 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

97th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Syracuse's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UNC
2. L

   PITT
3. W

   GT
4. L

   DUKE
5. L

   LIB
6. L

   CLEM
7. L

   WAKE
8. L

   BC
9. L

   LOU
10. L

    NCSU
11. L

    ND

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Syracuse's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.58
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+1.02

Game by game

• UNCL 6-31 at UNC5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −8
• PITTL 10-21 at PITT7% → 4%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −13
• GTW 37-20 vs GT24% → 98%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +52, Possession & field position +1
• DUKEL 24-38 vs DUKE44% → 4%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −48, Clock −1
• LIBL 21-38 vs LIB43% → 2%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −48, Clock −1
• CLEML 21-47 at CLEM0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
• WAKEL 14-38 vs WAKE19% → 1%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −26, Clock −1
• BCL 13-16 vs BC17% → 4%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −27, Clock −2
• LOUL 0-30 at LOU8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −10
• NCSUL 29-36 vs NCSU12% → 5%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −25, Clock −2
• NDL 21-45 at ND2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −5

Points of win probability, from Syracuse's side.

Closest call

SYR 44-41 UNLV (2024) - Syracuse dropped to a 5.7% win probability before pulling it out.