2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:10 · Nolan Cooney punt for 50 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 13 yds to the NDame 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:18: Ian Book 28 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +2.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:30: Javon McKinley 21 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:06: Javon McKinley 28 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:20: Sean Tucker 40 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +3.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:32: Ian Book 17 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:32ND 4th & 5 at SYR 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%91% to makePunt96.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:28SYR 4th & 6 at ND 41, down 3Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%40% to convertField goal3.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call3.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:44ND 4th & 2 at ND 36, up 3Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it96.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:45SYR 4th & 17 at ND 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.115% to convertField goal4.6%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 14:02ND 4th & 8 at ND 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q2 6:35ND 4th & 3 at SYR 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.1%53% to convertField goal89.6%−0.645% to makePunt89.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:36SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 34, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 0:38SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q3 11:30SYR 4th & 3 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:30ND 4th & 5 at SYR 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.7%42% to convertField goal92.6%−0.151% to makePunt92.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:44ND 4th & 9 at SYR 32, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%51% to makePunt96.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 2:10SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q4 14:02SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 37, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 9:58ND 4th & 8 at SYR 44, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 7:17SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 33, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 1:09ND 4th & 9 at ND 40, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 9:55SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.4%97% to makeGo for two8.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:18ND Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:30ND Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:06ND Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:20SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.3%97% to makeGo for two6.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:32ND Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:07ND Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:25ND Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:33SYR Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1FG13 plays · 73 yds · 5:1898% → 98%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+14
97.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 14 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+29
97.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 29 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+10
97.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 10 yds to the Syrac 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 1:573% → 3%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.5%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 14 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
97.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 6 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+9
97.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Sean Tucker for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
97.2%
Nolan Cooney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2697% → 97%
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+20
97.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for no gain to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:523% → 4%
Q1 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+37
96.7%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Sean Tucker for 37 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-15
96.3%
Culpepper, Rex pass complete to Harris, Taj for 7 yards to the NOTREDAME29, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Hackett, Aaron) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 26
OWN 49
+9
96.2%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 9 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
96.2%
Nolan Cooney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2396% → 95%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
96.0%
Ian Book sacked by Geoff Cantin-Arku for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 7Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+11
95.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD10 plays · 62 yds · 4:035% → 8%
Q2 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
95.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 15 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
94.7%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
94.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 7 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.1%
Anthony Queeley 18 Yd pass from Rex Culpepper (Andre Szmyt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5593% → 91%
Q2 9:05
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+8
92.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 8 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+14
92.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 14 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
92.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 6 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4910% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD6 plays · 72 yds · 1:5790% → 93%
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-7
90.5%
Ian Book sacked by Geoff Cantin-Arku for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.1%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Williams, Kyren, PENALTY SYRACUSE roughing passer (Jonathan, Kingsley) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
90.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 18 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
90.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 11 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 8 yds · 1:408% → 9%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
92.3%
SYRACUSE Penalty, False Start (Carlos Vettorello) to the Syrac 15Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
91.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
91.2%
Rex Culpepper sacked by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 21 Rex Culpepper fumbled, forced by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, recovered by NDame Marist Liufau , return for 0 yards , return for 12 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD1 play · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:376% → 6%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 7 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.2%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 2 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+34
94.5%
Nolan Cooney punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NOTREDAME 17 SYRACUSE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Cooper Lutz) to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD9 plays · 68 yds · 0:2795% → 97%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
94.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+14
94.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 14 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+21
94.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 21 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · 17 yds · 1:023% → 3%
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
96.7%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 10 yds Aaron Hackett fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, recovered by NDame Myron Tagovailoa-AmosaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FUMBLE1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
96.8%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 43 Ian Book fumbled, recovered by Syrac Marlowe WaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17TD5 plays · 57 yds · 2:104% → 7%
Q3 12:05
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+12
97.0%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 3
50
+10
96.7%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 10 yds Taj Harris fumbled, forced by Clarence Lewis, recovered by Syrac Taj Harris for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18INT4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1594% → 94%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
94.3%
Ian Book pass intercepted Ja'Had Carter return for 11 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
93.3%
Rex Culpepper run for 7 yds to the NDame 47 Rex Culpepper fumbled, forced by Adetokunbo Ogundeji, recovered by NDame Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Shaun Crawford) to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0894% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-13
96.8%
Rex Culpepper pass intercepted Daelin Hayes return for 13 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1698% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q3 2:10
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+13
97.2%
Nolan Cooney punt for 50 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 13 yds to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5898% → 99%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
97.5%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to McKinley, Javon, PENALTY SYRACUSE roughing passer (Cantin-Arku, Geoff) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q3 0:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
99.2%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 13 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.1%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 1 yd to the Syrac 36Similar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+35
99.3%
Nolan Cooney punt for 50 yds , Matt Salerno returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 36 SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Markenzy Pierre) to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5799% → 99%
SYRDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:331% → 1%
Q4 8:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
99.4%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Taj Harris for 6 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.4%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Chris Elmore for 5 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+54
99.5%
Nolan Cooney punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NOTREDAME 23 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ramon Henderson) to the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD2 plays · 87 yds · 0:3599% → 100%
SYRDrive 29TD3 plays · 81 yds · 0:420% → 1%
NDDrive 30PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
99.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the NDame 29 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kevin Bauman) to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 31Uncategorized4 plays · 19 yds · 1:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Javon McKinley 21 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
+4
TD · Q3 11:20
Sean Tucker 40 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
-3.6
TD · Q3 6:32
Ian Book 17 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
+3.4