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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:44 · Markenzy Pierre run for no gain to the Syrac 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:54: Davis Allen 17 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:18: Garrett Williams 39 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:41: Nykeim Johnson 83 Yd pass from Rex Culpepper (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +3.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:26: Andrew Booth Jr. 21 Yd Fumble Return (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:38: Travis Etienne 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 11:47SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 10:41CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q1 8:46CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 7, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.191% to makePunt98.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:54SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:59SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 0:34CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 36, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q2 12:12CLEM 4th & 3 at SYR 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%52% to convertField goal98.2%−0.228% to makePunt98.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:08CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 20, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%−<0.175% to makePunt97.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:31SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 47, down 10Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:30SYR 4th & 7 at CLEM 45, down 17Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%37% to convertField goal1.6%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:20SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 34, down 13Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:30CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 45, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q3 7:33CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 22, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.5%−1.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q3 5:44SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 41, down 6Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it8.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 2:23CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 25, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.1%−2.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q4 14:48SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 4:30CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 41, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:37CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:25CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:15SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.6%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:54CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:18SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.6%97% to makeGo for two2.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:41SYR Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:26CLEM Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:38CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick98.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:45CLEM Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD6 plays · 47 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 10 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 10 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Frank Ladson Jr., broken up by Geoff Cantin-ArkuSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
99.6%
Cornell Powell 25 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
SYRDrive 4INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:101% → 1%
CLEMDrive 5FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q1 9:16
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+7
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the Syrac 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 2:451% → 1%
CLEMDrive 7TD5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q1 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
99.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Cornell Powell, broken up by Aman GreenwoodSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+20
99.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 20 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
99.4%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Rodgers, Amari for 5 yards to the SYRACUSE10, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Carman, Jackson) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.4%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Ed Hendrix for 10 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 5 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Joseph Ngata, broken up by Aman GreenwoodSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Lyn-J Dixon, broken up by Kingsley JonathanSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Will Spiers punt blocked by Drew Tuazama, Kyle Strickland return for no gain to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10TD7 plays · 20 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q2 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+15
99.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 15 yds to the Clem 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11MISSED FG14 plays · 55 yds · 5:0199% → 99%
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 8 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
98.9%
Amari Rodgers pass complete to Trevor Lawrence for 8 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q2 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
98.6%
Nolan Cooney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD12 plays · 87 yds · 4:3299% → 99%
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+14
98.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 14 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
98.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 1 yd to the Clem 36Similar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Amari Rodgers, broken up by Garrett WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
98.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 20 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+8
98.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 8 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+13
98.7%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 13 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Nykeim Johnson, broken up by Nolan TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Nolan Cooney punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16END OF HALF14 plays · 56 yds · 1:1398% → 99%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 8 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
97.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 5 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 1 yd to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 7 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 5 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
98.1%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 10 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4398% → 98%
SYRDrive 19TD4 plays · 96 yds · 1:442% → 5%
Q3 9:01
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+7
97.8%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Ed Hendrix for 7 yds to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5895% → 94%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Joseph Ngata, broken up by Garrett WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
95.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Cornell Powell, broken up by Ifeatu MelifonwuSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-2
94.8%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by McKinley Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 22Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+10
94.2%
Will Spiers punt for 56 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for 10 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:446% → 6%
CLEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1795% → 93%
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+7
93.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 7 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
94.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 15 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 23
OWN 16
+9
94.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 9 yds to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -10 yds · 0:487% → 3%
SYRDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:303% → 3%
CLEMDrive 25TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0398% → 99%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
97.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 23 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ifeatu Melifonwu) to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
98.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 12 yds to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26INT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bryan Bresee) to the Syrac 30Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
98.5%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 10 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-40
98.6%
Rex Culpepper pass intercepted Mike Jones Jr. return for 40 yds to the Syrac 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27TD3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3699% → 100%
SYRDrive 28INT6 plays · 66 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
Rex Culpepper pass intercepted Jalyn Phillips return for 5 yds to the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 11 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 16 yds · 3:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:26
Andrew Booth Jr. 21 Yd Fumble Return (B.T. Potter Kick)
+4.6
TD · Q3 8:41
Nykeim Johnson 83 Yd pass from Rex Culpepper (Andre Szmyt Kick)
-3.1
TD · Q4 13:38
Travis Etienne 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+1.2