2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:07 · Riley Dixon punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:29: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds for a TD, (John Armstrong KICK), (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +6.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:50: AJ Long run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +4.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:05: Robert Welsh 42 Yd Interception Return (Cole Murphy Kick) — SYR win probability +10.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:07: Cole Murphy 41 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +7.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- SACK · Q3 9:27: Tyler Cameron sacked by Brandon Reddish for a loss of 17 yards Tyler Cameron fumbled, recovered by Syrac Micah Robinson , return for 0 yards , return for 51 yds, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +12.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it41.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.1%average punt
- Q1 14:07SYR 4th & 2 at WAKE 49, tiedClose callPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:36WAKE 4th & 1 at SYR 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.4%71% to convertField goal42.2%−0.247% to makePunt42.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:09SYR 4th & 8 at WAKE 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call50.3%83% to makePunt47.1%−3.2average punt
- Q2 15:00WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snapGo for it46.3%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q2 3:13WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it29.6%−1.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.0%average punt
- Q2 3:03SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 39, up 10Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snapGo for it67.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 11:07SYR 4th & 16 at WAKE 24, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snapGo for it67.4%−2.515% to convertField goalTheir call69.9%68% to makePunt62.7%−7.2average punt
- Q3 9:27WAKE 4th & 10 at midfield, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q3 5:15SYR 4th & 10 at WAKE 10, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it92.8%−1.224% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%88% to makePunt87.0%−6.9average punt
- Q3 5:07WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 40, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q3 3:14SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 34, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 1:42WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 38, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.7%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 22, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 12:58WAKE 4th & 9 at SYR 28, down 23Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−0.231% to convertField goal3.1%60% to makePunt1.6%−1.5average punt
- Q4 11:09SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 40, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q4 7:53WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 29, down 23Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:45SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 21, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 3:44WAKE 4th & 3 at SYR 43, down 23Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%52% to convertField goal0.9%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call0.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:29WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.1%97% to makeGo for two47.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:50SYR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.4%97% to makeGo for two56.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:05SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.0%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
33.4%
AJ Long pass complete to Ervin Philips for 6 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD14 plays · 91 yds · 6:0735% → 42%
Q1 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+28
34.3%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 13 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, roughing passer (Robert Welsh) to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
34.7%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 16 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
35.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for no gain to the Syrac 35Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+7
34.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 7 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
35.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 13 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
41.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds for a TD, (John Armstrong KICK), (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4FG15 plays · 69 yds · 4:1460% → 60%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
40.5%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 11 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
40.0%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
40.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 12 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+29
40.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 14 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, roughing passer (NA) to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0941% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD17 plays · 92 yds · 6:2658% → 65%
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+10
42.2%
AJ Long pass complete to Devante McFarlane for 10 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+11
41.7%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 11 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+23
40.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 23 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+9
39.7%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7INT TD7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3838% → 29%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
37.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 4 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+6
37.2%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 6 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
39.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Jaboree Williams, broken up by Ron ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 1:5229% → 29%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
29.5%
Tyler Cameron sacked by Donnie Simmons for a loss of 15 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+5
28.7%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to Jared Crump for 5 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+3
28.5%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to Dezmond Wortham for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+7
28.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 48 yds , Prince-Tyson Gulley returns for 7 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
28.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Adrian Flemming for 3 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10END OF HALF4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0128% → 27%
SYRDrive 11FG13 plays · 51 yds · 3:5373% → 81%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
27.5%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 4 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
26.7%
AJ Long pass complete to Adrian Flemming for 5 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
26.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 11 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+33
27.5%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 33 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
25.8%
AJ Long run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 21 AJ Long fumbled,Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-8
26.0%
AJ Long sacked by Josh Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 29
+5
27.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12FUMBLE TD6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3523% → 13%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
23.4%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to Cam Serigne for 5 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
23.6%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to E.J. Scott for 10 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+51
12.8%
Tyler Cameron sacked by Brandon Reddish for a loss of 17 yards Tyler Cameron fumbled, recovered by Syrac Micah Robinson , return for 0 yards , return for 51 yds, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
11.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+4
11.3%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 10
50
0
11.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Prince-Tyson Gulley at the Syrac 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14FG6 plays · 81 yds · 2:0191% → 96%
Q3 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
6.2%
Long, AJ left pass complete to Ishmael, S. for 5 yards to the WF0, clock 06:37, PENALTY SU pass interference (Ishmael, S.) 15 yards to the WF20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
6.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Ervin Philips for 5 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
5.2%
Tyler Cameron pass complete to Devin Pike for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+24
5.2%
Alexander Kinal punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Prince-Tyson Gulley at the WAKEFOREST 21 WAKE FOREST Penalty, kick catching interference (NA) to the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
3.0%
Long, AJ right pass complete to Philips, E. for 3 yards to the SU39 (Janvion, R), PENALTY SU holding 10 yards to the SU26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
SYRDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:1497% → 97%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
2.5%
AJ Long pass complete to Jeremiah Kobena for 3 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-4
2.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Josh Parris for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+32
2.8%
Riley Dixon punt for 39 yds , Jared Crump returns for 32 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-4
1.7%
AJ Long pass complete to Ervin Philips for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:45
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+15
1.0%
Riley Dixon punt for 44 yds , Jared Crump returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
SACK · Q3 9:27
Tyler Cameron sacked by Brandon Reddish for a loss of 17 yards Tyler Cameron fumbled, recovered by Syrac Micah Robinson , return for 0 yards , return for 51 yds, (Cole Murphy KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q2 5:05
Robert Welsh 42 Yd Interception Return (Cole Murphy Kick)
-10.5
FG · Q3 11:07
Cole Murphy 41 yd FG GOOD
-7.5