2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:10 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:11: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +3.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:47: Chad Voytik pass complete to Dontez Ford for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:04: Ron Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +9.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:34: Chris Blewitt 31 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +6.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:52: Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 49 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:57PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 36, tiedClose callPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it70.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:30SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.9%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q1 7:03PITT 4th & 8 at SYR 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snapGo for it70.2%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call70.3%68% to makePunt69.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:20PITT 4th & 4 at SYR 26, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%−0.364% to makePunt70.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 10:34SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q2 5:10PITT 4th & 14 at SYR 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snapGo for it72.9%−1.118% to convertField goalTheir call74.0%60% to makePunt70.6%−3.4average punt
- Q2 1:38SYR 4th & 10 at PITT 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snapGo for it20.9%−0.927% to convertField goalTheir call21.8%80% to makePunt17.0%−4.8average punt
- Q3 8:16PITT 4th & 1 at SYR 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.8%70% to convertField goal78.7%−3.132% to makePunt79.2%−2.6average punt
- Q3 4:34PITT 4th & 13 at SYR 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snapGo for it80.7%−2.017% to convertField goalTheir call82.7%85% to makePunt75.3%−7.4average punt
- Q3 1:39SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 37, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q4 13:41SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 23, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 9:42PITT 4th & 3 at SYR 28, up 20Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%−0.260% to makePunt97.1%−1.5average punt
- Q4 7:01SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 47, down 23Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:11PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.3%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:47PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:04SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.3%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:52PITT Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4969% → 68%
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5832% → 32%
Q1 9:30
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+29
68.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 43 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for 29 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3MISSED FG7 plays · 2 yds · 2:2769% → 68%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-11
68.3%
Chad Voytik sacked by Marcus Coleman for a loss of 11 yards to the Syrac 42Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 26
OPP 42
+5
67.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ron Thompson) to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 21
OPP 37
+13
68.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Dontez Ford for 13 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+5
67.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 5 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
67.1%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 6 yds to the Syrac 28 Prince-Tyson Gulley fumbled, forced by Ray Vinopal, recovered by Pitt Todd Thomas , return for 2 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD4 plays · 28 yds · 1:1968% → 71%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
68.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 12 yds to the Syrac 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6INT10 plays · 58 yds · 3:2130% → 31%
PITTDrive 7MISSED FG11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1071% → 72%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
71.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
71.3%
Conner, James rush for 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH39, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Rotheram, Matt) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+15
71.1%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete to Boyd, Tyler, PENALTY SYRACUSE face mask (Whigham, Julian) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
71.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 7 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2829% → 28%
Q2 10:34
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
72.5%
Riley Dixon punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG11 plays · 46 yds · 4:5972% → 74%
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-5
74.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Jaryd Jones-Smith) to the Syrac 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 58 yds · 3:2225% → 24%
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
74.5%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD7 plays · 80 yds · 0:4477% → 87%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.1%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete to Boyd, Tyler, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Reddish, Brandon) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
77.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 28 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
79.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 7 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+19
78.8%
Isaac Bennett run for 9 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Dyshawn Davis) to the Syrac 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Dontez Ford for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1015% → 15%
PITTDrive 13INT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1988% → 84%
SYRDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4614% → 23%
PITTDrive 16FG17 plays · 49 yds · 6:1181% → 89%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
82.9%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Zaire Franklin) to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
83.1%
James, Chris rush for 1 yard to the SYRACUSE5, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Officer, Alex) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE16, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3514% → 12%
PITTDrive 18TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3190% → 98%
Q4 14:52
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+49
98.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 49 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 15 yds to the Syrac 40 SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Steve Ishmael) to the Syrac 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG8 plays · 34 yds · 3:4899% → 99%
SYRDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:291% → 1%
Q4 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+8
98.8%
AJ Long pass complete to Sean Avant for 8 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+50
99.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 47 yds, downed at the PITTSBURGH 6 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nicholas Grigsby) to the Pitt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22END OF GAME12 plays · 61 yds · 6:2099% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:04
Ron Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 0:47
Chad Voytik pass complete to Dontez Ford for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+8.6
FG · Q3 4:34
Chris Blewitt 31 yd FG GOOD
+6.5