View as
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:45 · Cole Murphy 43 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:05: Jarrod West pass incomplete to Adrian Flemming — SYR win probability +7.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:20: Wayne Gallman run for 21 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST down — CLEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q3 6:36: Ammon Lakip 18 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:30: Ammon Lakip 41 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:28: Stanton Seckinger 19 Yd pass from Cole Stoudt (Ammon Lakip Kick) — CLEM win probability +11.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 10SYR made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
- Q1 13:36SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q1 11:50CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 39, tiedClose callPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:38SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it15.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q1 7:37CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q1 5:54SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q1 1:45SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%71% to convertField goal18.3%−0.545% to makePunt18.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 0:45SYR 4th & 7 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snapGo for it19.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%66% to makePunt18.0%−1.3average punt
- Q2 12:02CLEM 4th & 10 at SYR 38, down 3Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snapGo for it77.9%30% to convertField goal77.8%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call77.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:14SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 4:37CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 20, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snapGo for it74.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call73.7%−0.375% to makePunt69.1%−4.9average punt
- Q2 1:22SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it24.2%−1.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00SYR 4th & 16 at CLEM 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snapGo for it25.0%−1.716% to convertField goalTheir call26.6%54% to makePunt26.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 13:46CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.3%−1.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q3 12:16CLEM 4th & 22 at SYR 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snapGo for it64.3%−2.78% to convertField goal65.8%−1.228% to makePuntTheir call66.9%average punt
- Q3 11:20SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snapGo for it30.7%−1.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q3 6:36CLEM 4th & 1 at SYR 1, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snapGo for it63.9%59% to convertField goalTheir call59.7%−4.394% to makePunt48.4%−15.6average punt
- Q3 5:09SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it27.1%−3.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q3 3:30CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 24, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call69.4%−0.668% to makePunt60.8%−9.2average punt
- Q3 1:42SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it22.5%−2.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q4 12:06SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.3%−1.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q4 10:10CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it86.5%−1.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q4 8:17SYR 4th & 8 at CLEM 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call10.0%68% to makePunt5.5%−4.4average punt
- Q4 2:25CLEM 4th & 1 at SYR 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.5%71% to convertField goal93.8%−0.754% to makePunt93.2%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 14:28CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1415% → 15%
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2585% → 85%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for no gain to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
84.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Bradley Pinion punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ritchy Desir at the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4216% → 16%
CLEMDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3784% → 83%
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1617% → 17%
CLEMDrive 6INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.1%
Cole Stoudt pass intercepted Brandon Reddish return for no gain to the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7FG13 plays · 61 yds · 4:3518% → 21%
Q1 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+8
82.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Ervin Philips for 8 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+23
81.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 23 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
80.2%
AJ Long pass complete to Adonis Ameen-Moore for 3 yds to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 42 yds · 3:1879% → 78%
Q2 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+25
79.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 25 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
80.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 1 yd to the Syrac 37Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-9
79.9%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Ron Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the Syrac 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4123% → 24%
CLEMDrive 10FG13 plays · 69 yds · 4:1876% → 79%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
75.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 13 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
75.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 13 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 6 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+10
76.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 10 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
77.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 4 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11INT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0125% → 25%
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
74.7%
AJ Long run for 8 yds to the Syrac 36 AJ Long fumbled, recovered by Syrac AJ Long for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
74.7%
AJ Long run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 33 AJ Long fumbled, recovered by Syrac AJ Long AJ Long pass intercepted Robert Smith return for no gain to the Syrac 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0780% → 80%
SYRDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 0:3826% → 26%
CLEMDrive 14FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
74.4%
Cole Stoudt run for 1 yd to the Clem 25 Cole Stoudt fumbled, recovered by Syrac Dyshawn DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0533% → 33%
Q2 0:03
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-8
67.4%
AJ Long sacked by Tavaris Barnes for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 31 AJ Long fumbled, forced by Tavaris Barnes, recovered by Syrac Micah Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1069% → 67%
SYRDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0534% → 34%
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1472% → 65%
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
71.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 4 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-16
69.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Syrac 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 22
OPP 43
0
64.9%
Bradley Pinion punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5234% → 32%
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
67.6%
Riley Dixon punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1966% → 68%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
65.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
67.1%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Offside (John Raymon) to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
67.9%
Cole Stoudt pass intercepted Darius Kelly return for 20 yds to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
61.6%
AJ Long pass intercepted Stephone Anthony return for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22FG13 plays · 49 yds · 3:4468% → 73%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
69.7%
Wayne Gallman run for 3 yds to the Syrac 26 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrone Crowder) to the Syrac 36Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+12
67.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 12 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
70.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 4 yds to the Syrac 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5132% → 30%
Q3 5:09
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
70.4%
Riley Dixon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Syrac 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24FG5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3074% → 77%
Q3 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+8
71.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 8 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1826% → 24%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
74.5%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 14 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-4
73.2%
AJ Long pass complete to Adonis Ameen-Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 40Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
76.0%
Riley Dixon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0175% → 91%
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
75.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 5 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
75.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 21 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+17
77.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 17 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
90.5%
Stanton Seckinger 19 Yd pass from Cole Stoudt (Ammon Lakip Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0411% → 9%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
88.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 14 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-7
88.9%
AJ Long sacked by Jayron Kearse for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 38Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 17
OWN 38
+3
90.6%
Riley Dixon punt for 49 yds , Adam Humphries returns for 3 yds to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3090% → 89%
SYRDrive 29MISSED FG7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2310% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:28
Stanton Seckinger 19 Yd pass from Cole Stoudt (Ammon Lakip Kick)
+11.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:05
Jarrod West pass incomplete to Adrian Flemming
-7.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:20
Wayne Gallman run for 21 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST down
+6.7