View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreVILL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Timeout VILLANOVA, clock 00:00
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q4 7:14: Chris Gough 25 yd FG GOOD — VILL win probability +16.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Chris Gough 24 yd FG GOOD — VILL win probability +16.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Ryan Norton 22 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +23.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- FG · OT2 0:00: Kendall Moore 1 Yd pass from Riley Dixon (Ryan Norton Kick) — SYR win probability +9.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Timeout VILLANOVA, clock 00:00 — VILL win probability +47.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:03VILL 4th & 14 at SYR 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.119% to convertField goal18.9%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q1 1:32VILL 4th & 9 at SYR 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call18.7%80% to makePunt16.8%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:32SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snapGo for it80.5%−1.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%average punt
- Q2 13:36VILL 4th & 1 at SYR 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.2%70% to convertField goal18.0%−1.334% to makePunt18.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 6:49SYR 4th & 16 at VILL 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snapGo for it72.9%−1.414% to convertField goalTheir call74.3%74% to makePunt70.4%−3.9average punt
- Q2 6:49VILL 4th & 7 at VILL 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.3%average punt
- Q2 5:54SYR 4th & 11 at VILL 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.4%−0.127% to convertField goal76.3%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call76.5%average punt
- Q3 10:04VILL 4th & 22 at VILL 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it12.3%−3.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q3 2:34SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it83.0%−2.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%average punt
- Q3 2:34SYR 4th & 8 at VILL 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q4 7:14VILL 4th & 8 at SYR 8, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snapGo for it32.2%−2.126% to convertField goalTheir call34.3%90% to makePunt18.7%−15.5average punt
- Q4 7:14SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it50.8%−7.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:24SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:17VILL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.0%97% to makeGo for two23.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:04SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVILLDrive 1PUNT15 plays · 50 yds · 5:5713% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
86.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Poppy Livers for 13 yds to the Villa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+8
86.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Poppy Livers for 8 yds to the Villa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
86.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Mike Burke for 11 yds to the Villa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+15
86.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Poppy Livers for 15 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-3
86.8%
John Robertson sacked by Cameron Lynch for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2TD7 plays · 96 yds · 2:3285% → 86%
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
85.1%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 4 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 10
+5
84.9%
Dixon, R. punt 52 yards to the VU38, downed, PENALTY VU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the SU15, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+20
85.1%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 20 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 3MISSED FG14 plays · 66 yds · 4:5214% → 15%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
85.9%
John Robertson pass complete to Aaron Wells for no gain to the Villa 17Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
85.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Poppy Livers for 7 yds to the Villa 40Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+34
85.5%
John Robertson pass complete to Mike Burke for 34 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-2
85.2%
John Robertson sacked by Julian Whigham for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
85.7%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Brisly Estime for 1 yd to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-8
85.6%
Brisly Estime run for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 13 Brisly Estime fumbled, recovered by Syrac Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
85.2%
Riley Dixon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Joe Sarnese at the Villa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 5TD14 plays · 60 yds · 4:4915% → 22%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.7%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Aaron Wells, broken up by Robert WelshSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
85.1%
John Robertson sacked by Marqez Hodge for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 11
50
+10
85.2%
John Robertson pass complete to Lincoln Collins for 10 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+15
84.6%
John Robertson pass complete to Poppy Livers for 15 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6FG17 plays · 48 yds · 3:2881% → 82%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
81.2%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 2 yds to the Syrac 33 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 18
OWN 23
+8
80.9%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 8 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+17
80.6%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 17 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
82.1%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 12 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Terrel Hunt pass incomplete to Jarrod West, broken up by Matt McCannSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
82.1%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 13 yds to the Villa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
82.8%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Ben Lewis for 11 yds to the Villa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
82.2%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Kevin Gulyas, broken up by Cameron LynchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT13 plays · 44 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 5:54
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+15
81.8%
VILLANOVA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
83.2%
VILLANOVA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Villa 46Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
83.4%
Terrel Hunt pass complete to Jarrod West for 6 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
83.3%
Terrel Hunt run for 6 yds to the Villa 34 SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Villa 49Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+9
82.6%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 9 yds to the Villa 40Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
82.8%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 4 yds to the Villa 36Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
81.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Joe Sarnese at the Villa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
SYRDrive 10TD15 plays · 83 yds · 4:5678% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
78.0%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Jarrod West for 6 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
78.2%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ashton Broyld for 6 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
77.9%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+9
79.5%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the Villa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
80.2%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ben Lewis for 4 yds to the Villa 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+13
79.8%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ben Lewis for 13 yds to the Villa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+17
79.9%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Jarrod West for 17 yds to the Villa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11PUNT12 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
SYRDrive 12PUNT RETURN TD8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4387% → 72%
SYRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
74.8%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
76.2%
Austin Wilson pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Jerry MilesSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
73.8%
Riley Dixon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Joe Sarnese at the Villa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 14FG23 plays · 80 yds · 9:0826% → 44%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+11
73.4%
John Robertson pass complete to Earnest Pettway for 11 yds to the Villa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
73.7%
John Robertson pass complete to Aaron Wells for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
70.7%
VILLANOVA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 42Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+27
72.7%
John Robertson pass complete to Gary Underwood for 27 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
VILLDrive 16MISSED FG17 plays · 59 yds · 5:4044% → 57%
VILLDrive 17END OF HALF9 plays · 0 yds · 15:1244% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18FG9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19FG8 plays · 20 yds · 15:0065% → 72%
VILLDrive 20TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 14%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+61.4
TD · OT 0:00
Timeout VILLANOVA, clock 00:00
-47.3
FG · OT 0:00
Ryan Norton 22 yd FG GOOD
+23.7