New Mexico State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1352nd
  Defense+0.0952nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.4%16th
  Defense42.2%49th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4398th
  Defense+1.1192nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0845th
  Defense+0.1036th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2660th
  Defense+0.1761st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.1%12th
  Defense47.8%45th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.6%37th
  Defense29.4%60th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8614th
  Defense3.0844th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.0%16th
  Defense16.5%45th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.2%33rd
  Defense15.6%42nd

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what New Mexico State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NEV
2. L
   MINN
3. L
   UTEP
4. L
   WIS
5. W
   HAW
6. L
   FIU
7. W
   UNM
8. W
   MASS
9. W
   LAM
10. L
    MIZ
11. W
    LIB
12. W
    VAL
13. W
    BGSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for New Mexico State.

Players, 2022

1. Diego PaviaQB165 plays · +0.316 pts/play · 76th of 234 QBs
   0.98WAR0.60 to 1.36
2. Gavin FrakesQB83 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 157th of 234 QBs
   0.27WAR0.11 to 0.48
3. Star ThomasRB71 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 172nd of 384 RBs
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.23
4. Jamoni JonesRB75 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 217th of 384 RBs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.19
5. Josh CarlsonP32 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 45th of 102 punters
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
6. Ethan AlbertsonPK7 plays · +0.230 pts/play · 95th of 110 kickers
   0.03WAR0.00 to 0.06
7. Thomaz WhitfordTE8 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 169th of 214 TEs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
8. Jonathan BradyWR8 plays · +0.053 pts/play · 434th of 455 WRs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares New Mexico State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  189189126th of 129Roster talent: 189, 126th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  119119117th of 129Recruiting: 119, 117th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  26%26%113th of 128Returning production: 26%, 113th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −15.4−15.4114th of 129SP+ rating: −15.4, 114th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than New Mexico State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BGSUQ3 5:41 4th & 2 at BGSU 46, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. vs NEVQ4 8:21 4th & 3 at NEV 28, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. at MASSQ2 6:37 4th & 2 at MASS 24, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. at BGSUQ3 11:15 4th & 3 at BGSU 18, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. at MASSQ4 14:54 4th & 20 at MASS 37, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs FIUQ3 8:28 4th & 3 at NMSU 8, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs FIUQ2 1:42 4th & 8 at FIU 42, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at BGSUQ2 0:22 4th & 6 at BGSU 40, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

13th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up New Mexico State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NEV
2. L

   MINN
3. L

   UTEP
4. L

   WIS
5. W

   HAW
6. L

   FIU
7. W

   UNM
8. W

   MASS
9. W

   LAM
10. L

    MIZ
11. W

    LIB
12. W

    VAL
13. W

    BGSU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at New Mexico State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.31
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.20

Game by game

• NEVL 12-23 vs NEV34% → 4%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −42, Clock −3
• MINNL 0-38 at MINN1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• UTEPL 13-20 at UTEP12% → 9%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts +2
• WISL 7-66 at WIS1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• HAWW 45-26 vs HAW65% → 99%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2
• FIUL 7-21 vs FIU86% → 1%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −85: Scoreboard −62, Clock −3
• UNMW 21-9 vs UNM32% → 96%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +44, Clock +1
• MASSW 23-13 at MASS48% → 96%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• LAMW 51-14 vs LAM93% → 67%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −26: Scoreboard +2, Possession & field position +2
• MIZL 14-45 at MIZ3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• LIBW 49-14 at LIB7% → 100%Before kickoff −43 · On the field +93: Scoreboard +70, Clock +2
• VALW 65-3 vs VAL97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• BGSUW 24-19 at BGSU33% → 97%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from New Mexico State's side.

Closest call

USA 17-22 NMSU (2017) - New Mexico State dropped to a 3.5% win probability before pulling it out.