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NMSU

New Mexico State 49 at Liberty 14

LIB
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:02 · Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+42.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:11: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 34 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:16: Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:29: Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:43: Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 42 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +20.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:03: Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +22.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:02NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40LIB 4th & 8 at NMSU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at LIB 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:36NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:30LIB 4th & 14 at LIB 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−3.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:14LIB 4th & 4 at NMSU 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:32NMSU 4th & 15 at LIB 49, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:17LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 40, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:17NMSU 4th & 8 at LIB 33, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:16LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 40, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:11NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:03LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:16NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:29NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:03NMSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:28NMSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:23NMSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:15LIB Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:587% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.3%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
93.3%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
93.3%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2293% → 92%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
92.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Demario Douglas for 1 yd to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-1
92.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mehki Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 60 yds, downed at the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:298% → 11%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
92.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+4
92.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+12
92.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
92.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Terrell Warner for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
92.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
92.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
92.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 7 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+12
92.3%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
89.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 34 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2390% → 88%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
89.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
89.7%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+15
89.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Demario Douglas for 15 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
89.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Caleb Snead for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-5
89.8%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Caleb Snead) to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
89.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Shedro Louis for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
89.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
88.1%
Nick Brown 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 2:0412% → 14%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
87.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
87.5%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
86.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 6 yds Bryce Childress fumbled, recovered by Liber TreShaun ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3387% → 90%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.9%
T.J. Green run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
86.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+31
86.9%
T.J. Green run for 31 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
87.2%
T.J. Green run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.7%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:4412% → 24%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
88.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+24
88.4%
Diego Pavia run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
87.5%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 5 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-5
87.5%
QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the LIB31 (JONES, A'Khori). PENALTY Before the snap, NMS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LIB45 to the NMS50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+1
87.7%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
87.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
87.9%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
87.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
87.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
87.2%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+15
87.6%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITFORD, Thomaz thrown to the LIB9. PENALTY LIB Illegal use of the hands on CLARK, TreShaun enforced 15 yards from the LIB29 to the LIB14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
87.2%
JONES, Jamoni rush to the right for no gain to the LIB7 (SCRUGGS, Javon). PENALTY NMS Holding on VAIPULU, AJ enforced 10 yards from the LIB7 to the LIB17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+3
87.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
87.4%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice thrown to the LIB0. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on ANTHONY, Daijahn enforced 12 yards to the LIB2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.7%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3779% → 78%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.6%
Demario Douglas run for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
78.2%
Charlie Brewer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
63.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0862% → 62%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
62.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 6 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+9
63.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 9 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
64.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
61.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Keyshaun ElliottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3838% → 40%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
62.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+6
62.7%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 3
OWN 48
-5
63.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chris Ojoh) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
60.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5158% → 53%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
57.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 19 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
57.2%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Justin Stinson for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
55.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+9
55.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Caleb Snead for 9 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
52.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:5947% → 71%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
53.4%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+14
53.5%
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
51.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
50.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+16
49.6%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
28.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 42 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:4147% → 40%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
46.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 6 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
44.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
48.3%
Johnathan Bennett run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
40.4%
Johnathan Bennett run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
39.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3046% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.7%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.7%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
46.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 8 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-12
48.3%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+24
39.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 24 yds to the Liber 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:2370% → 93%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
29.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
29.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 6 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
29.3%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
29.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
29.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 1 yd to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+22
29.8%
Diego Pavia run for 22 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
28.9%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+11
29.4%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice broken up by WILLIAMS, Amarian at the LIB0. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Amarian enforced 11 yards to the LIB2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.0%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4910% → 8%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
9.8%
T.J. Green run for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
9.7%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
10.4%
T.J. Green run for 2 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
10.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-1
10.6%
T.J. Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
8.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4694% → 96%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
6.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+49
3.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 49 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19FUMBLE
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:493% → 1%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
3.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 8 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+7
2.9%
Shedro Louis run for 7 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
3.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Noah Frith for 11 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
3.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
1.9%
Johnathan Bennett run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+12
1.9%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
2.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
2.1%
Johnathan Bennett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
1.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Chris Ojoh) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
1.4%
Johnathan Bennett run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 18 Johnathan Bennett fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Syrus DumasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 6:0398% → 99%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
2.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+8
2.0%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+15
2.0%
QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the NMS23 (CLARK, TreShaun;BAZILE, JR., CJ). PENALTY LIB Face mask on BAZILE, JR., CJ enforced 15 yards from the NMS25 to the NMS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
1.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
1.5%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+16
1.5%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
1.4%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-1
1.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
1.4%
Diego Pavia sacked by Kendy Charles for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
1.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chris Ojoh) to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+32
0.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 39 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 32 yds to the Liber 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Shedro Louis for 4 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-6
0.3%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
0.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 12
OWN 40
-5
0.2%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Lazarus Williams and Izaiah Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:5499% → 100%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
0.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+1
0.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+25
0.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 25 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
0.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Liber 7Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23TD
19 plays · 76 yds · 6:010% → 0%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
0.1%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+6
0.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.1%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
0.1%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-3
0.1%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+10
0.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.1%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
0.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
0.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
0.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
0.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
0.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Shedro Louis for 11 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.0%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
0.0%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jaivian Lofton for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Stricker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by EGET, Weston at NMS23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:03
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q2 0:43
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 42 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q2 6:29
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com