Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 23 at Massachusetts 13

MASS
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:13 · Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the UMass 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Pregame prior+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:54: Kay'Ron Adams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +5.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:47: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:59: Ethan Albertson 30 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:16: Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:42: Diego Pavia pass complete to Terrell Warner for 27 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +19.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 12NMSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 15
  1. Q1 13:13NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:13NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:10MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:49MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:16NMSU 4th & 21 at NMSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 9:16NMSU 4th & 21 at NMSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:35MASS 4th & 8 at NMSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 4:45NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  9. Q1 4:36NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  10. Q1 3:11MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  11. Q1 3:11NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 14:08NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 14:08NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  14. Q2 9:19NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  15. Q2 6:37NMSU 4th & 2 at MASS 24, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%−1.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q2 4:46MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q2 4:20NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  18. Q2 2:09MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 30, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q3 12:47MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  20. Q3 9:59NMSU 4th & 8 at MASS 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−9.4
    average punt
  21. Q3 9:01MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  22. Q3 6:16NMSU 4th & 10 at MASS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−9.4
    average punt
  23. Q3 2:01MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−1.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 14:54NMSU 4th & 20 at MASS 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.6
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:14MASS 4th & 3 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−5.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−3.4
    average punt
  26. Q4 2:53MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 39, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
  27. Q4 1:23MASS 4th & 9 at NMSU 42, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    30% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:54MASS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:47NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:42NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:4148% → 47%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
52.3%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-5
52.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomaz Whitford) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
52.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
52.3%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
52.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the UMass 37Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
52.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the UMass 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2453% → 53%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
52.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
52.7%
Brady Olson pass complete to Eni Falayi for 5 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
52.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-5
52.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
52.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
52.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3347% → 47%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.8%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-11
53.1%
Gavin Frakes sacked by Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
52.9%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 21
OWN 8
+1
53.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Running Into the kicker on GOODEN, Darius ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 21
OWN 8
+1
53.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Running Into the kicker on GOODEN, Darius ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4154% → 54%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
53.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
53.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
53.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+7
53.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
53.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
54.3%
Cameron Carson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:5446% → 45%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
54.4%
Gavin Frakes run for 29 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
53.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
54.9%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-2
54.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
55.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 27 ydsSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
55.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2555% → 55%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
54.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 16 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
55.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
54.9%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offsides (Lazarus Williams) to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
55.1%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
54.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:0345% → 44%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
55.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-1
54.4%
Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
54.8%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
55.2%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
54.5%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+5
55.9%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
56.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 17Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
56.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:1455% → 61%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
55.3%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
55.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
55.7%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+66
61.1%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2837% → 35%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
62.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 13 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomaz Whitford) to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+15
63.4%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 15 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
62.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.8%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
62.3%
FRAKES, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice broken up by FERRELL, Jalon at the NMS35. PENALTY UMA Holding on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the NMS30 to the NMS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
61.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
64.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
64.5%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
65.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.7%
Brady Olson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3538% → 38%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
61.7%
Jordin Parker run for 7 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-5
61.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
61.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chris Bellamy) to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+11
62.4%
Gavin Frakes run for 11 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
62.2%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
62.0%
Ethan Albertson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5163% → 63%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
62.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2636% → 34%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
64.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
65.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
66.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1164% → 66%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
64.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 16Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
64.0%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+5
67.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
66.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 7 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
65.6%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:2235% → 53%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
65.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 30 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
47.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:3757% → 64%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
57.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 3 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
57.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
56.6%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+5
55.3%
KOLODZIEY, CJ punt 30 yards to the NMS21 downed by JOHNSON, Gerrell, clock 00:58. PENALTY NMS Running Into the kicker on MCLEAN, Malachi enforced 5 yards from the UMA49 to the NMS46 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
58.4%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
58.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+8
57.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
59.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+9
59.6%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+35
63.7%
Cameron Carson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS28 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0959% → 59%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
59.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-3
59.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
57.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 5 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-3
58.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 45 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4840% → 49%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+48
59.8%
Diego Pavia run for 48 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
54.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 14 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
53.6%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+7
54.2%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-4
55.1%
Thomaz Whitford run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 13Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
50.7%
Ethan Albertson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5855% → 52%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.4%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
55.1%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
53.5%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
50.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on YARRO, Canaan enforced (Canaan Yarro) to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+15
52.3%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Jamoni thrown to the UMA43. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on WALLACE, Josh enforced 15 yards to the NMS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:4552% → 57%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
48.5%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+15
50.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Mahoney) to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
46.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
46.8%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-7
47.7%
Diego Pavia sacked by Jalen Stewart and Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
43.3%
Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:1646% → 42%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
49.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
48.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
49.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
49.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 5 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
48.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
45.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
41.8%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice thrown to the NMS49. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the NMS35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:0060% → 57%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
40.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 38 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
35.3%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
36.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
-8
37.5%
Diego Pavia sacked by Dominic Schofield for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
42.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 5:4043% → 42%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
43.2%
Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 13Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-5
42.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the UMass 8Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+19
41.7%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 19 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
44.1%
Brady Olson run for 9 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
47.3%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.8%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
45.4%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 6 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
46.8%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 4 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
48.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
48.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
41.5%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 5:3266% → 92%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
34.2%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+33
34.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
50
+3
29.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
29.8%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
29.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
29.5%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
27.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Doro Omerhi) to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+5
27.9%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
8.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Terrell Warner for 27 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:129% → 4%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
8.7%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-8
8.5%
Brady Olson sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 18
OWN 39
0
5.1%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+18
4.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
6.4%
Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
6.4%
Brady Olson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-5
6.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Xavier Graham) to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
6.0%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
4.0%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1896% → 96%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
4.0%
[NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS39 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
4.2%
[NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS38 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
4.1%
Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:42
Diego Pavia pass complete to Terrell Warner for 27 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q2 1:47
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q2 12:54
Kay'Ron Adams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com