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NMSU

New Mexico State 24 at Bowling Green 19

BGSU
2022 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 26, 2022 · Ford Field
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3BGSU 25.1%Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 0 · Q3 11:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:15 · Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−23.2Pregame prior+7.4Score differential−10.7Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:36: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:02: George Eberle kickoff for 40 yds , Ta'ron Keith return for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:26: Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TD — NMSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:38: Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5 — NMSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:27: Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +26.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 4:07BGSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:59NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:47BGSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:19BGSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 23, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:22NMSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 40, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%
    34% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:15NMSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−9.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:41NMSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 46, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−4.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:11BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55BGSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:02NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:10NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:39NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:36NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:26NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:27BGSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4667% → 67%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
66.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 17 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
66.9%
Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
67.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
66.9%
Matt McDonald pass intercepted Trevor Brohard return for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:0033% → 36%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
66.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
66.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
66.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+42
66.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 42 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
66.3%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+4
66.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+10
66.2%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
65.8%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
64.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0864% → 62%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
64.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 13 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
64.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-2
64.3%
Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+11
63.5%
Matt McDonald run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
64.2%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
63.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+10
63.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
64.0%
Camden Orth sacked by Lama Lavea for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+5
63.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-1
63.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
62.0%
Mason Lawler 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5539% → 40%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
61.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+17
61.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
59.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 7
50
-5
58.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
59.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
59.7%
George Eberle punt for 40 yds, downed at the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:0460% → 58%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
59.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
59.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
59.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
59.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+16
58.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.7%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
59.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
59.7%
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-4
58.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Kameren Stewart) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
57.9%
Sami Sir punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0443% → 57%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
56.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
56.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+29
56.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 29 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
54.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+22
53.8%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chris Bacon) to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
53.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
53.2%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+9
53.3%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
51.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0544% → 43%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
44.3%
Jamal Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
44.9%
Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
44.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 28 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
45.1%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
44.8%
Camden Orth run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
44.2%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
43.1%
Mason Lawler 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8INT
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:4960% → 70%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
40.2%
Star Thomas run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.9%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
37.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+17
35.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
31.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
30.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
30.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
31.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomaz Whitford) to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-17
30.5%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Chris Bacon return for 17 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:1237% → 39%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
36.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
39.0%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
38.0%
Camden Orth run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.1%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:3066% → 75%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
33.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
31.6%
Jonathan Brady run for 37 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.4%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
28.4%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
28.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
25.1%
Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:4961% → 67%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.1%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
38.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+9
39.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
37.6%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-5
36.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
36.5%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
37.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
33.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
33.0%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
31.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
32.9%
George Eberle punt for 41 yds, downed at the BwGrn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2534% → 30%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
33.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 11
-7
32.9%
Ta'ron Keith run for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 11
OWN 4
0
30.8%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
30.0%
Sami Sir punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3872% → 87%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
28.2%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+45
12.6%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:2619% → 19%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.9%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
18.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 14 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
19.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 17 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
20.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
19.0%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+21
18.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 21 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.7%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
19.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-15
18.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 22
OPP 35
+4
15.7%
Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 18
OPP 31
+49
18.7%
Mason Lawler 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 2:2890% → 91%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.5%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
10.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-10
9.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-5
10.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Diego Pavia) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 22
OWN 30
-3
9.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 25
OWN 27
0
9.5%
George Eberle punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:5718% → 19%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
18.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 24 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
18.9%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+13
18.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 13 yds Odieu Hiliare fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Syrus DumasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18SF
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2892% → 91%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
7.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
7.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+9
7.6%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
6.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+3
6.0%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-7
5.8%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
8.6%
George Eberle punt blocked by Davion Daniels for a SAFETY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:3313% → 43%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
13.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
16.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Linwood Crump) to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
42.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
19 plays · 43 yds · 6:1375% → 98%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
24.3%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Diego Pavia for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
21.3%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+7
21.6%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
18.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Bellamy) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
21.0%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
15.1%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
14.2%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 5
50
+6
13.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
4.6%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
4.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
2.8%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:27
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)
+26.8
TD · Q3 3:26
Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TD
-15.6
TD · Q3 11:02
George Eberle kickoff for 40 yds , Ta'ron Keith return for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com