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UNM

New Mexico 9 at New Mexico State 21

NMSU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:37 · Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior−11.7Home team on offense+1.3Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:00: Gavin Frakes pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for 22 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:41: FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UNM34. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on WILSON, Ronald NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CHAKOLIS, RJ , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — NMSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 31 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:55: Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:49: Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 00:49 — NMSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 9:27UNM 4th & 11 at NMSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11UNM 4th & 4 at NMSU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:54NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:00UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56NMSU 4th & 9 at UNM 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:04NMSU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 1
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:22UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:40UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 2 at NMSU 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−3.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:53UNM 4th & 11 at NMSU 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:09NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:06UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:11NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:11UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:00NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:16NMSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:55NMSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:2668% → 65%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
32.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+18
32.5%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 18 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Miles Kendrick run for no gain to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
32.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
32.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on THOMAS, Tyriece enforced (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
32.5%
Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
32.5%
Miles Kendrick run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-6
32.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+3
32.5%
Miles Kendrick run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
34.6%
Luke Drzewiecki 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4434% → 35%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
34.3%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Sol Rascon for 13 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
34.7%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.5%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
34.5%
Gavin Frakes run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
34.6%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
34.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jer'Marius Lewis at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3665% → 64%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
34.9%
Sherod White run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
35.7%
Miles Kendrick run for no gain to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
35.9%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
36.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5836% → 41%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
36.0%
QB Keeper FRAKES, Gavin rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the NMS37 (HARRIS, Justin). PENALTY UNM Offsides on HANNAH, Reco enforced 5 yards from the NMS41 to the NMS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-10
36.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomaz Whitford) to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
36.3%
Star Thomas run for 37 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
36.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 12Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-10
36.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Stephens) to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
41.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for 22 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4260% → 60%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
40.0%
Nathaniel Jones run for 7 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
39.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 5 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
39.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 33 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
38.5%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
39.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-5
40.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Isaak Gutierrez) to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+3
40.4%
Miles Kendrick run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
39.8%
Luke Drzewiecki 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1741% → 41%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
41.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+18
40.9%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 18 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
40.8%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
41.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds , Luke Wysong returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.2%
PENALTY UNM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HANNAH, Reco NMS Unsportsmanlike Conduct on ELLIOT, Keyshaun , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5459% → 56%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.2%
Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+16
41.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 16 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
40.1%
KENDRICK, Miles pass to the right complete for 5 yards to ERICKSON, Andrew caught at the UNM44 and advanced to the UNM44 (MILLER, Mehki). PENALTY UNM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JAMES, CJ enforced 5 yards from the UNM39 to the UNM34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
41.2%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-2
41.3%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Trevor Brohard for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+6
41.9%
Nathaniel Jones run for 6 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
43.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2344% → 43%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
43.5%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+7
43.2%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-3
42.9%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
42.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 31Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
42.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Illegal Snap on GUTIERREZ, Isaac enforced (Isaak Gutierrez) to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5657% → 58%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
43.2%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+5
43.5%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+15
43.9%
KENDRICK, Miles pass to the left incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke broken up by MILLER, Mehki at the UNM34; QB hurried by WILLIAMS, Lazarus. PENALTY NMS Roughing the Passer on WILLIAMS, Lazarus enforced 15 yards from the UNM31 to the UNM46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
41.2%
Jaden Hullaby run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
50
+1
40.9%
Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
42.5%
Miles Kendrick pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:4549% → 50%
Q2 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
48.8%
FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UNM34. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on WILSON, Ronald NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CHAKOLIS, RJ , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
48.8%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 9 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
48.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
49.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
49.7%
Gavin Frakes run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
49.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-1
48.6%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
48.7%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for 3 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
49.5%
Brett Money 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4853% → 51%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
47.1%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
46.2%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
46.8%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+6
48.9%
punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
50.0%
[NH] Kneel down by FRAKES, Gavin at NMS21 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4952% → 50%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
51.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
51.9%
run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
50
0
51.2%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 5
50
0
50.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4251% → 47%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
49.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
49.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the NMex 7Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 14
OWN 7
-2
49.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 16
OWN 5
+3
51.0%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 13
OWN 8
+9
53.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 32 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 9 yds to the NMex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
68.5%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 31 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3136% → 33%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
63.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
64.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
64.9%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+10
67.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 34 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 10 yds to the NMex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:4570% → 88%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
69.7%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
69.6%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
68.5%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for no gain to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+15
67.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Justin Harris) to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
70.1%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 2
OPP 21
-2
70.1%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+6
68.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 6 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
70.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+13
70.1%
Gavin Frakes run for 13 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
70.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMex 2Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.4%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18FG
24 plays · 74 yds · 10:5616% → 11%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
83.9%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+7
84.2%
Miles Kendrick run for 7 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
83.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 12 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.0%
Miles Kendrick run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
83.3%
Christian Washington run for 10 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.9%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
81.8%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
85.7%
JONES, Nate rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the NMS50 (OJOH, Chris;BROHARD, Trevor). PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNM46 to the UNM41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+4
87.1%
Miles Kendrick run for 4 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-5
86.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Isaak Gutierrez) to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+1
88.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+13
88.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for 13 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+3
86.8%
Jaden Hullaby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
86.2%
Christian Washington run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
84.2%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
85.3%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
84.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
84.2%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
84.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
85.0%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+5
85.0%
Miles Kendrick run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-1
86.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
88.6%
Luke Drzewiecki 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4492% → 91%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.3%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.8%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-4
93.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds , Luke Wysong returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Luke Wysong) to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:039% → 7%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-3
91.5%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 18
OWN 19
+2
92.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 56 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5595% → 97%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
94.5%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
94.5%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
94.8%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
96.7%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
96.7%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jer'Marius Lewis at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22END OF GAME
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:114% → 4%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
96.5%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
96.6%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+10
96.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Christian Washington for 10 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+7
96.2%
Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chris Ojoh) to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
95.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Sherod White for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
95.6%
Miles Kendrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
95.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Elijah Queen for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
95.6%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+9
96.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-6
96.3%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:55
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q3 11:16
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 31 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)
+15.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:41
FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UNM34. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on WILSON, Ronald NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CHAKOLIS, RJ , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com