2022 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 26, 2022 · Ford Field
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreNMSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:36: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:02: George Eberle kickoff for 40 yds , Ta'ron Keith return for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:26: Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TD — NMSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:38: Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5 — NMSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:27: Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +26.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 4:07BGSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.5%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call56.6%54% to makePunt56.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:59NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q2 11:47BGSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 48, down 7Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it53.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 4:19BGSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 23, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call38.4%−0.170% to makePunt34.8%−3.8average punt
- Q2 0:22NMSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 40, up 14Close callWent for it · 69.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.1%−0.340% to convertField goal69.4%34% to makePunt68.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 11:15NMSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 18, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snapGo for it72.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call71.8%−0.879% to makePunt63.2%−9.4average punt
- Q3 5:41NMSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 46, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snapGo for it69.5%57% to convertField goal65.0%−4.523% to makePuntTheir call67.4%−2.1average punt
- Q3 4:11BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 4, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it24.3%−3.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.4%average punt
- Q4 14:55BGSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snapGo for it11.8%−2.613% to convertField goalTheir call14.5%54% to makePunt12.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 12:02NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snapGo for it84.9%−4.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q4 7:10NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.2%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:39NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:36NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.0%97% to makeGo for two56.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:26NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:27BGSU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.5%97% to makeGo for two24.1%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1INT5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4667% → 67%
NMSUDrive 2TD9 plays · 70 yds · 4:0033% → 36%
Q1 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
66.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+42
66.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 42 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+4
66.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
64.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3MISSED FG12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0864% → 62%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
64.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 13 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
63.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+10
63.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
64.0%
Camden Orth sacked by Lama Lavea for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-1
63.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5539% → 40%
BGSUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 37 yds · 4:0460% → 58%
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
59.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+16
58.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-4
58.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Kameren Stewart) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
57.9%
Sami Sir punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0443% → 57%
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+29
56.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 29 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
54.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+22
53.8%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chris Bacon) to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0544% → 43%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
44.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 28 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8INT12 plays · 37 yds · 3:4960% → 70%
Q2 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+17
35.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
31.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
30.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
31.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomaz Whitford) to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-17
30.5%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Chris Bacon return for 17 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 17 yds · 0:1237% → 39%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
36.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FG8 plays · 57 yds · 3:3066% → 75%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT13 plays · 35 yds · 4:4961% → 67%
Q3 9:03
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-5
36.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
37.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
33.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2534% → 30%
NMSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3872% → 87%
BGSUDrive 15FG12 plays · 34 yds · 3:2619% → 19%
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
18.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 14 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
19.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 17 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
20.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+21
18.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 21 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-15
18.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · -15 yds · 2:2890% → 91%
Q4 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-10
9.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-5
10.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Diego Pavia) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 22
OWN 30
-3
9.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · 38 yds · 0:5718% → 19%
NMSUDrive 18SF7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2892% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD4 plays · 48 yds · 0:3313% → 43%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
13.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
16.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Linwood Crump) to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
42.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER19 plays · 43 yds · 6:1375% → 98%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
24.3%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Diego Pavia for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
18.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Bellamy) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 5
50
+6
13.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:27
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)
+26.8
TD · Q3 3:26
Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TD
-15.6
TD · Q3 11:02
George Eberle kickoff for 40 yds , Ta'ron Keith return for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)
+15.1