Try the model
FIU

Florida International 21 at New Mexico State 7

NMSU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:28 · Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the NMxSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+15.9Home team on offense−18.3Score differential−8.5Garbage-time factor−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:38: Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +8.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:00: Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 60 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +11.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 1:42: Josh Carlson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 13 — FIU win probability +7.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31 — NMSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:15: Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19 — FIU win probability +8.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:16FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38NMSU 4th & 9 at FIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01NMSU 4th & 4 at FIU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:07NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:00NMSU 4th & 1 at FIU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:42NMSU 4th & 8 at FIU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.5
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:50NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−4.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 8, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:15FIU 4th & 9 at NMSU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−11.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:00NMSU 4th & 9 at FIU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:13FIU 4th & 1 at NMSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−6.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:08NMSU 4th & 4 at FIU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55FIU 4th & 1 at NMSU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:01FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:58NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:38FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:00FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4414% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.1%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
86.1%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 3 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
86.1%
Grayson James sacked by Sterling Webb for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
86.1%
Grayson James sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
85.6%
Daton Montiel punt for 40 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3886% → 85%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
85.7%
Jordin Parker run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
85.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
85.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
85.7%
Jonathan Brady run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
85.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
85.6%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
84.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 4:3715% → 20%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
84.8%
Grayson James run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+12
84.8%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.7%
Jalen Bracey run for no gain to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
84.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 12 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.6%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
83.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
83.6%
Grayson James run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+9
83.5%
Grayson James run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.4%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+32
83.4%
Lexington Joseph run for 32 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
83.4%
Lexington Joseph run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:0381% → 82%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Gavin Frakes run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
80.7%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.5%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Justice Powers for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
80.9%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 25 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
81.4%
Gavin Frakes run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
81.4%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
81.3%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+10
81.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Eric Marsh for 10 yds to the FlaIn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
81.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
78.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
78.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
78.4%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+3
78.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
78.0%
FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRADY, Jonathan thrown to the FIU0. PENALTY FIU Pass Interference on HILL, Demetrius enforced 8 yards to the FIU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.8%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2021% → 31%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.2%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
78.6%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
78.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
78.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 19 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
78.1%
Grayson James run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
77.6%
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.6%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
69.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:3171% → 68%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
70.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
70.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
70.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:0732% → 44%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
68.4%
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
67.5%
Jalen Bracey run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+7
67.9%
Dean Patterson pass complete to Dean Patterson for 7 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
66.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Ross Fournet for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
67.5%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+60
56.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 60 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:1851% → 46%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
51.2%
Jonathan Brady run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
50.9%
FRAKES, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice thrown to the NMS40. PENALTY FIU Pass Interference on COLE, Adrian enforced 15 yards to the NMS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.9%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
52.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
52.9%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 3 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+4
52.6%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
53.3%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
53.2%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
53.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
45.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3756% → 58%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
43.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
44.1%
Grayson James run for no gain to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
43.8%
Daton Montiel punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
42.2%
Grayson James run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3238% → 41%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
38.2%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
38.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
38.3%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+49
40.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 49 yds , Tyrese Chambers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1049% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
50.4%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.6%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
46.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
48.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
45.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4557% → 63%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 9
OWN 30
+4
43.0%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
42.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.3%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
41.8%
Grayson James run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
41.5%
Grayson James run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 11
OWN 40
-5
43.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
37.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 64 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3738% → 34%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
37.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 7
0
37.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+1
37.3%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
34.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:1369% → 75%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
30.8%
Grayson James run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
30.3%
Lexington Joseph run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
30.6%
Lexington Joseph run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+12
30.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
30.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+13
30.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 13 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
24.9%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
24.9%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
25.1%
Grayson James sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
25.3%
Chase Gabriel 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:1517% → 12%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
16.7%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-3
16.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+26
16.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 26 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
18.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
18.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 9 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
18.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keegan Davis) to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
19.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Canaan Yarro) to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
19.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+6
19.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 6 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
18.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+47
12.3%
Carson Zilmer 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 2:4685% → 92%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.1%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
14.6%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
12.5%
JOSEPH, Lexington pass to the left incomplete intended for CHAMBERS, Tyrese thrown to the FIU32. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on OJOH, Chris enforced 15 yards to the FIU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
11.5%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 5
50
0
11.5%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
50
+4
9.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
9.7%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
7.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
8.5%
PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to BELLAMY, Chris caught at the NMS25 and advanced to the NMS31 (VOLMAR, Andrew). PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YARRO, Canaan enforced 5 yards from the NMS18 to the NMS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 4:069% → 5%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
8.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+23
8.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 23 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
9.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
9.8%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
9.9%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
9.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
4.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:1396% → 99%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
3.8%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
3.8%
Lexington Joseph run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+19
3.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 19 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
3.5%
Lexington Joseph run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+8
3.7%
Lexington Joseph run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
3.5%
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
3.5%
Lexington Joseph run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
1.1%
Lexington Joseph run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
1.1%
Lexington Joseph run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
1.2%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:00
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 60 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
-11
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:15
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19
-8.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com