Nevada

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2180th
  Defense+0.0764th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.9%53rd
  Defense40.9%63rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4094th
  Defense+1.2260th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0544th
  Defense+0.0360th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3279th
  Defense+0.1171st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.7%48th
  Defense46.4%60th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.3%66th
  Defense29.1%80th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6220th
  Defense2.8656th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.8%2nd
  Defense19.6%46th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.8%71st
  Defense13.2%14th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Nevada allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WYO
2. W
   UNLV
3. W
   USU
4. W
   UNM
5. W
   SDSU
6. L
   HAW
7. W
   FRES
8. L
   SJSU
9. W
   TULN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Nevada.

Players, 2020

1. Carson StrongQB357 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 38th of 212 QBs
   0.78WAR0.10 to 1.42
2. Devonte LeeRB91 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 79th of 338 RBs
   0.34WAR0.27 to 0.41
3. Toa TauaRB140 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 87th of 338 RBs
   0.33WAR0.23 to 0.42
4. Romeo DoubsWR86 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 9th of 409 WRs
   0.24WAR0.10 to 0.36
5. Cole TurnerTE67 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 3rd of 191 TEs
   0.12WAR0.00 to 0.23
6. Brandon TaltonPK15 plays · +0.212 pts/play · 16th of 97 kickers
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
7. Justin LockhartWR27 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 271st of 409 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.08
8. Melquan StovallWR40 plays · +0.064 pts/play · 285th of 409 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Nevada's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  40140192nd of 127Roster talent: 401, 92nd of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14014090th of 127Recruiting: 140, 90th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  75%75%42nd of 127Returning production: 75%, 42nd of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.9+1.957th of 127SP+ rating: +1.9, 57th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Nevada's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SDSUQ4 9:39 4th & 1 at NEV 35, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.1 pts
2. vs WYOQ4 3:26 4th & 4 at WYO 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
3. vs SDSUQ4 5:02 4th & 3 at SDSU 34, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
4. vs TULNQ3 7:46 4th & 2 at NEV 39, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at SJSUQ4 1:28 4th & 24 at NEV 48, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
6. vs FRESQ4 0:37 4th & 1 at FRES 36, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs SDSUQ3 8:43 4th & 2 at NEV 34, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs TULNQ2 0:00 4th & 6 at TULN 41, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

24th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Nevada's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WYO
2. W

   UNLV
3. W

   USU
4. W

   UNM
5. W

   SDSU
6. L

   HAW
7. W

   FRES
8. L

   SJSU
9. W

   TULN

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Nevada's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.59
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock+0.23
• Timeouts−0.16
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.40

Game by game

• WYOW 37-34 vs WYO41% → 28%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −21
• UNLVW 37-19 at UNLV79% → 99%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• USUW 34-9 vs USU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• UNMW 27-20 at UNM88% → 95%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• SDSUW 26-21 vs SDSU48% → 95%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +1
• HAWL 21-24 at HAW71% → 11%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts +1
• FRESW 37-26 vs FRES70% → 97%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• SJSUL 20-30 at SJSU59% → 3%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• TULNW 38-27 vs TULN50% → 97%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Nevada's side.

Closest call

USU 37-38 NEV (2016) - Nevada dropped to a 7.5% win probability before pulling it out.