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SMU

SMU 29 at Nevada 24

NEV
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 24, 2024 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at NEV40 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:09: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +9.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:23: Savion Red 1 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick) — NEV win probability +36.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:01: Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Kristopher Ross) to the NEV 0 (L. Johnson Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — SMU win probability +34.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. SAFETY · Q4 7:19: Anthony Booker Jr. Safety — SMU win probability +10.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:18: Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SMU win probability +45.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:02NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51NEV 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:25SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38NEV 4th & 3 at SMU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:54SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:47NEV 4th & 3 at SMU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:12SMU 4th & 9 at NEV 35, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:18SMU 4th & 11 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:56SMU 4th & 14 at NEV 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:13NEV 4th & 30 at SMU 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:17SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:43NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 36, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:07NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:57SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:23NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:01SMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:18SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.0%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.1%
Kitan Crawford run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 26 Kitan Crawford fumbled, recovered by NEV return for 5 ydsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
4.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
4.3%
Guy Gillespie punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2196% → 96%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
4.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
4.4%
Preston Stone pass intercepted Chad Brown return for no gain to the NEV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:504% → 5%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
4.4%
Savion Red run for 7 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
4.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for no gain to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
4.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 6
50
0
4.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 6
50
0
5.2%
Guy Gillespie punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:0895% → 94%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
5.2%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
5.2%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+23
5.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 23 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.1%
PENALTY SMU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HUDSON, Jordan NEV Unsportsmanlike Conduct on ROSS, Kristopher NEV Unsportsmanlike Conduct on IKAHIHIFO, Henry , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
5.1%
STONE, Preston pass to the left complete for -1 yard to MARYLAND, RJ caught at the SMU41 and advanced to the SMU44 (MATEIALONA, Tongiaki;BROWN, Chad). PENALTY SMU Holding on OSBORNE, Justin enforced 10 yards from the SMU45 to the SMU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 20
OWN 35
+9
5.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 44 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 9 yds to the NEV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:016% → 7%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
5.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+2
5.8%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-5
5.7%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 23Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+15
5.7%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Roberts) to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
5.9%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
5.9%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
5.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
5.9%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
5.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
7.2%
Guy Gillespie punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:1793% → 92%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
7.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+7
7.1%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
7.1%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
7.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+4
7.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-17
8.0%
run for a loss of 17 yards to the SMU 9 fumbled, recovered by SMU Isaac Pearson I. Pearson return for 0 yds , return for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:189% → 11%
Q1 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
8.8%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
8.8%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jace Henry for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:0090% → 91%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
9.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 19 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
9.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-5
10.4%
SMU Penalty, False Start (PJ Williams) to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+1
10.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+18
11.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 18 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
10.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-5
10.1%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRINSON, Romello broken up by CRAWFORD, Kitan at the NEV0. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PARR, Logan enforced 5 yards from the NEV13 to the NEV18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+9
10.1%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete dropped by HUDSON, Jordan thrown to the NEV0. PENALTY NEV Face mask on BROWN, Chad enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the NEV18 to the NEV9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
11.2%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the NEV 1Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
JOHNSON JR., LJ rush up the middle for no gain to the NEV1 (IKAHIHIFO, Henry). PENALTY NEV Unnecessary Roughness on BROWN, Chad enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the NEV1 to the NEV0 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
JOHNSON JR., LJ rush up the middle for no gain to the NEV1 (IKAHIHIFO, Henry). PENALTY NEV Unnecessary Roughness on BROWN, Chad enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the NEV1 to the NEV0 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:1910% → 14%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
10.4%
RED, Savion rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV23 (ROBERTSON, Cameron). PENALTY SMU Personal Foul on ROBERSON JR., Kori enforced 15 yards from the NEV25 to the NEV40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
10.6%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
10.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
11.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 21 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
11.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-1
11.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
10.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
11.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 21 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
11.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-1
11.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
14.4%
Matthew Killam 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3987% → 85%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
13.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
13.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
14.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+22
15.2%
Isaac Pearson punt for 43 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 22 yds to the NEV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0716% → 18%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
16.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
50
+4
17.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+1
17.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+1
17.8%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3585% → 86%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
15.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 20 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
14.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 38Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
14.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+3
15.4%
Preston Stone run for 3 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
14.1%
Collin Rogers 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:5717% → 30%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
16.6%
Savion Red run for 8 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
17.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+48
16.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 48 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
20.2%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
20.2%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-10
19.2%
Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
19.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
20.2%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
20.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
20.2%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
20.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
29.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
27.9%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4272% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
28.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
27.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
25.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 24 yds to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
24.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
24.6%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-6
25.5%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 26Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
26.5%
Collin Rogers 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
23 plays · 83 yds · 8:5027% → 67%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
26.5%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 18Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
26.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
25.2%
LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BRAHAM, Cortez thrown to the SMU45. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on DAVIS-ROBINSON, Jaelyn enforced 15 yards to the NEV33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
26.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-15
26.8%
LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BELLON, Marcus broken up by MCGILL, Jonathan at the SMU34. PENALTY NEV Personal Foul on WORLD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the NEV34 to the NEV19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 24
OWN 19
+14
26.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 14 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
25.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
25.9%
Nevada Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 10
OWN 33
-5
25.1%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Jace Henry) to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+15
24.8%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Crossley) to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
27.8%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+11
27.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
29.4%
Sean Dollars run for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
30.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+14
28.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 14 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
30.1%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+2
30.0%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
28.9%
LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRAHAM, Cortez thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on SANDERS JR., Cale enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the SMU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
30.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
28.9%
LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRAHAM, Cortez thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on SANDERS JR., Cale enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the SMU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
30.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.7%
Savion Red 1 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:2737% → 30%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.5%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+17
63.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Brashard Smith for 17 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
63.0%
Preston Stone run for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
59.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
58.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
58.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 8 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
56.9%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (PJ Williams) to the NEV 37Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 17
OPP 37
0
59.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 17
OPP 37
-3
60.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+6
68.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+51
70.5%
Collin Rogers 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 17 yds · 4:4371% → 86%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
71.4%
run for 1 yd to the NEV 35Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
71.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Patrick Garwo III for 8 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
71.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
73.3%
Patrick Garwo III run for 6 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+18
73.6%
Jaden Smith pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 18 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
73.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-15
72.8%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right incomplete thrown to the SMU20; QB hurried by HARVEY, Jahfari. PENALTY NEV Tripping on DOLLARS, Sean enforced 15 yards from the SMU29 to the SMU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 25
OPP 44
0
71.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 25
OPP 44
0
71.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 25
OPP 44
-5
80.0%
GILLESPIE, Guy punt 36 yards to the SMU8 out of bounds, clock 10:22. PENALTY Before the snap, NEV Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SMU44 to the SMU49. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 30
OPP 49
0
86.0%
Guy Gillespie punt for 47 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 2:1213% → 49%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
87.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 2
OWN 10
0
87.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+49
87.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 49 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
83.5%
Preston Stone run for 9 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
84.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+20
86.3%
Brashard Smith run for 20 yds to the NEV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
85.0%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the NEV 4Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
50.9%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Kristopher Ross) to the NEV 0 (L. Johnson Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20SF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4165% → 54%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
64.5%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
54.0%
Anthony Booker Jr. SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5456% → 44%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
50
+4
44.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
44.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-15
45.1%
STONE, Preston pass short to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Jordan broken up by COATS JR., Michael at the NEV40. PENALTY SMU Face mask on ANDERSON, Nate enforced 15 yards from the NEV44 to the SMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+8
51.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
56.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4659% → 58%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.6%
run for 2 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
58.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 23Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
56.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
58.0%
Guy Gillespie punt for 60 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:1343% → 96%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
57.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 20 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
55.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
53.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
55.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 13 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
53.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
52.5%
Preston Stone run for 7 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
51.1%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
4.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3514% → 10%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
14.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 11 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
15.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
13.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+7
13.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 7 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
10.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4397% → 97%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
2.7%
[NH] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at NEV38 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-2
2.8%
[NH] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at NEV40 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:18
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-45
TD · Q3 3:23
Savion Red 1 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)
+36.6
TD · Q4 8:01
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Kristopher Ross) to the NEV 0 (L. Johnson Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
-34.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com