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SDSU

San Diego State 21 at Nevada 26

NEV
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+7.1NEV 67.8%Brandon Talton 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 26 · Q3 2:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:17 · Brandon Talton 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialPregame priorBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+8.3Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.7Pregame prior−0.4Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:57: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kobe Smith for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:15: Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +10.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:15: Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:42: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 50 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +18.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:17: Brandon Talton 27 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +7.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 11SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36NEV 4th & 5 at SDSU 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:55NEV 4th & 5 at SDSU 5, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:34NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.9
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:39NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.7%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:43NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 34, up 2
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 13, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:17NEV 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−12.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:17SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−3.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−5.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:12SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−4.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:39NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 35, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:28SDSU 4th & 19 at SDSU 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:02NEV 4th & 3 at SDSU 34, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%−3.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−5.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:02SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 35, down 5
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:29SDSU 4th & 5 at NEV 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−19.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−20.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:33SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57SDSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15NEV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15SDSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:42NEV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
48.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
48.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
48.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 42 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Vai Kaho) to the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
48.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+20
48.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 20 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
48.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-1
48.6%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 43 Greg Bell fumbled, recovered by Nevad Kameron ToomerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2350% → 51%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
49.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
49.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
49.5%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
49.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 9 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+6
49.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
49.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
49.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
49.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Trenton ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
50.6%
Brandon Talton 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0450% → 52%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.5%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
50.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+35
50.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 35 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
47.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 35 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:5749% → 50%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
49.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
49.2%
Melquan Stovall run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
49.4%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
49.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
49.5%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo (HALL, Darren), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (HALL, Darren) 15 yards to the SDSU21, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
49.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 1 yd to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
49.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
49.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jacob Gardner) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
49.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jacob Gardner) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+6
49.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 6 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
50.3%
Brandon Talton 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3950% → 58%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
49.7%
Chance Bell run for 12 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
49.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 19 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
48.4%
Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+25
48.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 25 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
47.9%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kobe Smith for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0243% → 48%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
43.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
43.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 11 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
43.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 6 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.9%
Toa Taua pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
43.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+14
44.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 14 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
45.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 12 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
45.8%
Devonte Lee run for 24 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
45.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Patrick McMorrisSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
48.0%
Brandon Talton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
46.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 12 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
46.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
45.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.2%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
45.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
46.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
47.5%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 43 yds, downed at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:1946% → 60%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
45.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
45.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+15
44.5%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo, PENALTY SDSU roughing passer (MCDONALD, Caden) 15 yards to the NEV29, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
45.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
47.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+59
46.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 59 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
49.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Nate Brown) to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
49.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Caden McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
49.6%
LEE, Devonte rush for 1 yard to the SDSU9 (MITCHELL, C.), PENALTY SDSU face mask (MITCHELL, C.) 5 yards to the SDSU5, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.6%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.6%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to LOCKHART, J., PENALTY SDSU pass interference (HAWKINS, Tayler) 3 yards to the SDSU2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5446% → 62%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
54.3%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+14
52.9%
Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
52.4%
JOHNSON, Lucas pass incomplete to KOTHE, Elijah, PENALTY NEV pass interference (BRADFORD, M.) 12 yards to the NEV32, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
51.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
51.2%
Greg Bell run for 10 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
51.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 17 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4144% → 43%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
43.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
44.3%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
43.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
42.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.8%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
40.5%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah Kothe, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.8%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:5742% → 61%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
42.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+6
43.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
44.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
44.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
42.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Charles Ross for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
43.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
50
+50
61.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 50 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
56.4%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
57.3%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
59.5%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 49 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
58.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+8
56.9%
Carson Strong run for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+5
57.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 56 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
58.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe Smith, broken up by Mikael BradfordSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
58.4%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-2
59.7%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+25
60.9%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 33 , Romeo Doubs returns for 25 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:4664% → 68%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
64.4%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
64.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+16
62.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
64.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jacob Gardner) to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
64.3%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
63.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q3 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
60.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 6 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
67.8%
Brandon Talton 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 33%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.1%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
64.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
66.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Chance Bell for 3 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
66.7%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5268% → 65%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
67.3%
STRONG, Carson pass complete to HORTON, Tory for 5 yards to the NEV25 (HAWKINS, Tayler), PENALTY NEV illegal block (STOVALL, M.) 10 yards to the NEV10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-2
66.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+9
65.3%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
64.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds, downed at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 32%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
64.0%
BELL, Greg rush for loss of 1 yard to the SDSU31 (HENLEY, Daiyan), PENALTY SDSU holding (BELLINGER, D.) 10 yards to the SDSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+4
65.5%
Carson Baker run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+4
65.8%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-1
66.9%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+4
68.2%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 61 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 4 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1074% → 74%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
73.5%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
74.0%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
75.5%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
73.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 63 yds, downed at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
67.0%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+13
67.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kobe Smith for 13 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.0%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
66.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-11
68.4%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 19
OWN 7
+29
70.1%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 41 , Romeo Doubs returns for 29 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1886% → 85%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
86.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
86.2%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
85.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Darren HallSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+51
84.7%
Brandon Talton 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 26%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.1%
Carson Baker run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.7%
Carson Baker run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
73.0%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
74.4%
Isaiah Richardson punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0786% → 87%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
85.8%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
87.1%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Darren Hall return for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:5427% → 18%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
73.3%
Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+7
72.8%
Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
72.8%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
72.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
73.1%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.5%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
71.5%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:42
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 50 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q2 1:15
Greg Bell run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 4:15
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com