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FRES

Fresno State 26 at Nevada 37

NEV
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:03 · Julian Diaz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense+7.0Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:03: Jake Haener run for 3 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena KICK) — FRES win probability +4.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:14: Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +10.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 1:32: Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 19 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena PAT MISSED) — FRES win probability +9.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:42: Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 85 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Brandon Talton PAT MISSED) — NEV win probability +12.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:32: Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 32 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:34NEV 4th & 6 at FRES 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03NEV 4th & 19 at NEV 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16FRES 4th & 7 at NEV 48, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:57NEV 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.2%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:13FRES 4th & 10 at NEV 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:00NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:10NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:06FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.3%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:40FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.0%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at NEV 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−11.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:42FRES 4th & 13 at NEV 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:32FRES 4th & 11 at NEV 49, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:05FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:12NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:30NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:03FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:14NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:32FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:42NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:32NEV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:39FRES Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:2670% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
69.6%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+27
69.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 27 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
69.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
69.6%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
69.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
69.6%
Brandon Talton 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:2331% → 33%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
69.5%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+9
69.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+27
69.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 27 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
69.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
69.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+17
69.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 17 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
66.7%
Josh Kelly run for 9 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 0:5768% → 66%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
67.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-5
67.4%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
67.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
66.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 14
OWN 17
-5
66.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Aaron Frost) to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
66.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3634% → 34%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
66.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
66.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 7
OPP 48
-12
66.5%
Team run for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 40 Team fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Carson KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:0067% → 70%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
67.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
67.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 35 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Sam HammondSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Carson King punt blocked by Trevor Price blocked by Trevor PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1970% → 73%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
70.1%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.1%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
70.1%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to TURNER, Cole, PENALTY FS pass interference (GASTON, Chris) 3 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:2728% → 33%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
71.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
71.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Matt Smith) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+7
72.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
71.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
70.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
70.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+12
71.1%
Jake Haener run for 12 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
70.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 4 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
70.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
70.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
70.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Raymond Pauwels Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.6%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:4369% → 81%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
69.3%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+3
68.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+8
68.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 1
50
+33
68.5%
Devonte Lee run for 33 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
71.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
81.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
74.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
74.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper FRESNO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+13
74.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
73.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
73.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
73.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
73.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 17 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
72.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+4
73.6%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
73.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
74.1%
Jake Haener punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by LJ EarlySimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
81.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
81.0%
Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 10 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Carson Strong , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+6
81.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+16
80.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 16 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:0025% → 38%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+33
75.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 33 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
72.4%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
62.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 19 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:2468% → 68%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-12
68.1%
STRONG, Carson pass complete to TURNER, Cole for 13 yards to the NEV37, out-of-bounds (FREE, Wylan), PENALTY NEV pass interference (TURNER, Cole) 12 yards to the NEV12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+9
68.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
68.6%
Carson Strong run for no gain to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+24
68.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 39 yds, downed at the NEVADA 40 NEVADA Penalty, kick catching interference (Jamaal Bell) to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:1032% → 30%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
68.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
69.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
68.1%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
69.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
68.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
68.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
68.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.7%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
67.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for no gain to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
68.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
69.6%
Jake Haener punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
68.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
67.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+5
66.6%
Julian Diaz punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 26 , Ronnie Rivers returns for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
67.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 49 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (Jake Haener) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+32
67.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 32 yds Keric Wheatfall fumbled, forced by Tyson Williams, recovered by Nevad Berdale RobinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0072% → 75%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
71.6%
Carson Strong sacked by Leevel Tatum III for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 19
OWN 21
0
71.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+29
69.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
50
+3
73.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
74.1%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
73.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
74.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+4
74.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds Melquan Stovall fumbled, forced by Levelle Bailey, recovered by FrsSt Malachi LangleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
69.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
67.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
68.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
66.7%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
66.9%
Saevion Johnson run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
68.0%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
75.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 11
50
0
73.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 11
50
+17
72.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
76.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-24
76.2%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Bralyn Lux return for 24 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:4032% → 33%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
68.8%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
66.2%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
67.8%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
65.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+32
65.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 32 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
63.3%
Josh Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
65.4%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
67.0%
Jake Haener sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 15 FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:5372% → 85%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
72.3%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
72.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+85
84.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 85 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Brandon Talton PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
87.3%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
87.3%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-8
86.6%
Carson Strong run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jermaine Ledbetter) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-12
86.4%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Wylan Free return for 12 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:0514% → 9%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
86.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 16 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
85.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
84.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 12 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
83.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
81.7%
Jalen Cropper run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
81.3%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-9
88.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Sam Hammond for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
91.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:4091% → 98%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
91.3%
Toa Taua run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
91.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
92.2%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+32
98.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 32 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:533% → 6%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
97.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
97.1%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.1%
Jake Haener run for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
97.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
97.0%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+5
97.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+19
97.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 19 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
96.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 19 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-10
97.4%
HAENER, Jake pass complete to WHEATFALL, K. for 11 yards to the NEV0, clock 01:42, PENALTY FS holding (WOODLEY, Quireo) 10 yards to the NEV21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+21
94.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 21 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0297% → 98%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.0%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
97.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
97.4%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
97.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 31 yds, downed at the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29Uncategorized
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
97.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+28
97.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 28 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
97.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 22 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:42
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 85 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Brandon Talton PAT MISSED)
+12.6
TD · Q2 9:14
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 1:32
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 19 yds for a TD (Mac Dalena PAT MISSED)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com