MTSU
Middle Tennessee 14 at Nevada 13
NEV2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
MTSU · Drive 1PUNT · 12 plays · 30 yds
Q1 15:00
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.4%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27
67.8%
-4.6
Q1 14:29
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 8 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST down
67.2%
-0.6
Q1 13:56
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep right to Middlebrook,Jekail thrown to NEV40 PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Kenion III,Murvin) 15 yards from MTN35 to MTN50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
67.2%
0.0
Q1 13:48
Jekail Middlebrook run for 10 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down
65.9%
-1.3
Q1 13:09
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the NEV 36
65.7%
-0.3
Q1 12:35
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 12 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down
65.7%
0.0
Q1 11:55
Cam'ron Lacy run for 5 yds to the NEV 19
65.7%
0.0
Q1 11:17
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the NEV 34
65.7%
0.0
Q1 10:34
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40
65.6%
-0.1
Q1 9:52
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Logan,Ashton) 5 yards from NEV40 to NEV45. NO PLAY.
66.0%
+0.4
Q1 9:41
Ashton Logan punt for 38 yds
66.1%
+0.1
NEV · Drive 2PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q1 9:26
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jace Henry for 2 yds to the NEV 9
72.0%
+5.8
Q1 8:59
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 8
71.9%
0.0
Q1 8:23
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST down
71.8%
-0.2
Q1 7:48
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
71.8%
0.0
Q1 7:32
AJ Bianco run for 8 yds to the NEV 25
71.8%
0.0
Q1 6:58
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 25
71.7%
-0.1
Q1 6:11
Bailey Ettridge punt for 43 yds
71.2%
-0.5
MTSU · Drive 3PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q1 5:54
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 28
66.3%
-4.9
Q1 5:29
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 28
66.3%
0.0
Q1 4:55
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 34
66.3%
0.0
Q1 4:15
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 17
66.6%
+0.2
NEV · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q1 3:59
AJ Bianco run for 2 yds to the NEV 19
71.2%
+4.6
Q1 3:14
AJ Bianco pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 10 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST down
71.2%
0.0
Q1 2:58
Herschel Turner run for 6 yds to the NEV 35
71.2%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Herschel Turner run for 10 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down
70.9%
-0.3
Q1 2:08
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
70.8%
-0.1
Q1 2:02
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the NEV 47
70.8%
0.0
Q1 1:23
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Nate Burleson II
70.8%
0.0
Q1 1:13
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 yds
70.8%
0.0
MTSU · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q1 1:06
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 3
65.9%
-4.9
Q1 0:26
(00:29) PENALTY MTN Encroachment (Walker,Amorion) 1 yard from MTN03 to MTN02. NO PLAY.
65.9%
-0.1
Q1 0:04
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ Jones
65.7%
-0.1
Q1 0:00
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 1 yd to the MTSU 3
65.7%
0.0
Q2 14:50
Ashton Logan punt for 44 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the MTSU 47
66.0%
+0.2
NEV · Drive 6TD · 1 play · 47 yds
Q2 14:42
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ky Woods for 47 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
82.0%
+16.0
MTSU · Drive 7MISSED FG · 10 plays · 49 yds
Q2 14:42
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
81.9%
-0.1
Q2 14:23
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 2 yds to the MTSU 23
78.3%
-3.6
Q2 13:40
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 42 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST down
78.3%
0.0
Q2 13:18
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the NEV 35
76.7%
-1.6
Q2 12:42
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep left to Walker,Amorion thrown to NEV01 PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Rhambo,Edward) 15 yards from NEV35 to NEV20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
76.7%
0.0
Q2 12:36
Jekail Middlebrook run for 8 yds to the NEV 12
76.7%
0.0
Q2 12:00
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
76.7%
0.0
Q2 11:53
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the NEV 11 Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brendon Harris) declined
76.5%
-0.2
Q2 11:42
PENALTY MTN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Guevara,Mateo) 15 yards from NEV11 to NEV26. NO PLAY.
76.6%
+0.2
Q2 11:35
Jacob Hathaway 36 yd FG MISSED
76.6%
0.0
NEV · Drive 8FG · 6 plays · 46 yds
Q2 11:27
Ky Woods run for 15 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST down
81.9%
+5.2
Q2 11:01
Ky Woods run for 28 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST down
82.0%
+0.1
Q2 10:22
Marcus Bellon pass incomplete to Jace Henry
82.0%
0.0
Q2 10:10
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 32
82.0%
0.0
Q2 9:30
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 4 yds to the MTSU 28
82.0%
0.0
Q2 8:59
Joe McFadden 38 yd FG GOOD
84.8%
+2.8
MTSU · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q2 8:59
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.9%
0.0
Q2 8:56
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron Lacy
81.0%
-3.8
Q2 8:45
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26
81.0%
0.0
Q2 8:08
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae Cox
81.3%
+0.3
Q2 8:01
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 25
81.3%
0.0
NEV · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 33 yds
Q2 7:46
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 7 yds to the NEV 32
84.8%
+3.4
Q2 7:15
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Juwon Gaston) to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST down
84.8%
0.0
Q2 6:53
(06:53) Shotgun Turner,Herschel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTN42 (Harris,Brendon) PENALTY NEV Holding (Scott,Trenton) 10 yards from MTN47 to NEV43. NO PLAY.
84.9%
+0.1
Q2 6:38
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
84.9%
0.0
Q2 6:15
AJ Bianco pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 15 yds to the MTSU 42
84.9%
0.0
Q2 6:01
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marshaun Brown
85.9%
+1.1
Q2 5:18
Bailey Ettridge punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jekail Middlebrook at the MTSU 4
86.4%
+0.5
MTSU · Drive 11INT · 6 plays · 36 yds
Q2 5:01
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MTSU 5
81.5%
-4.9
Q2 4:33
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 6 yds to the MTSU 11
81.4%
-0.1
Q2 4:19
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 14 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Labarbera) to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST down
81.4%
0.0
Q2 4:01
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
82.4%
+1.0
Q2 3:57
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook
82.4%
0.0
Q2 3:46
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted EJ Smith return for 14 yds to the MTSU 41
82.4%
0.0
NEV · Drive 12FG · 8 plays · 18 yds
Q2 3:12
AJ Bianco pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds to the MTSU 37
87.2%
+4.8
Q2 2:54
AJ Bianco sacked by John Howse IV for a loss of 7 yards to the MTSU 44
87.2%
0.0
Q2 2:35
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 21 yds to the MTSU 23 for a 1ST down
87.2%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Ky Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 26
87.5%
+0.3
Q2 1:52
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the MTSU 19
87.5%
0.0
Q2 1:07
AJ Bianco sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 23
87.9%
+0.4
Q2 1:07
Timeout Nevada, clock 01:07
87.2%
-0.6
Q2 1:02
Joe McFadden 33 yd FG GOOD
90.0%
+2.8
MTSU · Drive 13PUNT · 7 plays · 5 yds
Q2 1:02
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
90.0%
0.0
Q2 0:58
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook
86.5%
-3.5
Q2 0:50
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 5 yds to the MTSU 30
86.5%
0.0
Q2 0:50
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:50
86.5%
0.0
Q2 0:44
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion Walker
86.5%
0.0
Q2 0:44
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:44
86.5%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Ashton Logan punt for 41 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 1 yd to the NEV 30
86.5%
0.0
NEV · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 0:30
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
93.9%
+7.4
Q2 0:27
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
93.9%
0.0
Q2 0:19
Caleb Ramseur run for 8 yds to the NEV 38
93.2%
-0.7
Q2 0:19
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:19
95.0%
+1.8
Q2 0:12
Bailey Ettridge punt for 62 yds for a touchback
94.8%
-0.1
MTSU · Drive 15END OF HALF · 2 plays · 16 yds
Q2 0:06
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 6 yds to the MTSU 26
85.6%
-9.3
Q2 0:00
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST down
85.6%
0.0
NEV · Drive 16INT · 4 plays · 66 yds
Q3 15:00
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.3%
-0.3
Q3 14:49
Herschel Turner run for 64 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST down
90.1%
+4.8
Q3 14:41
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the MTSU 9
90.2%
+0.1
Q3 14:00
AJ Bianco pass intercepted Juwon Gaston return for no gain to the MTSU 29
90.3%
+0.1
MTSU · Drive 17DOWNS · 8 plays · 62 yds
Q3 13:47
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 33
85.3%
-5.0
Q3 13:13
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 35
85.3%
0.0
Q3 12:31
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST down
86.8%
+1.5
Q3 11:58
Jekail Middlebrook run for 42 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST down
86.8%
0.0
Q3 11:31
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 5 yds to the NEV 11
86.3%
-0.5
Q3 10:57
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 10
88.0%
+1.8
Q3 10:12
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 9
88.0%
0.0
Q3 9:26
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
88.2%
+0.2
NEV · Drive 18PUNT · 8 plays · 26 yds
Q3 9:19
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 9
92.8%
+4.6
Q3 8:40
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 9
92.8%
0.0
Q3 8:03
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 6 yds to the NEV 15
92.8%
0.0
Q3 7:16
Bailey Ettridge run for 12 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
92.8%
0.0
Q3 6:50
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NEV 27
92.8%
0.0
Q3 6:14
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NEV 27
92.8%
0.0
Q3 5:31
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 8 yds to the NEV 35
93.2%
+0.4
Q3 4:47
Bailey Ettridge punt for 50 yds
93.6%
+0.4
MTSU · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q3 4:33
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Sam Cook for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 13
88.1%
-5.5
Q3 4:02
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 7 yds to the MTSU 20
88.2%
0.0
Q3 3:12
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook
88.2%
0.0
Q3 3:12
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Logan,Ashton) 5 yards from MTN20 to MTN15. NO PLAY.
88.2%
0.0
Q3 3:04
Ashton Logan punt for 46 yds
88.2%
+0.1
NEV · Drive 20PUNT · 7 plays · -5 yds
Q3 2:56
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 46
93.5%
+5.3
Q3 2:19
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 47
93.8%
+0.2
Q3 1:25
Ashton Hayes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
93.8%
0.0
Q3 0:59
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 46
93.9%
+0.1
Q3 0:00
Chubba Purdy sacked by Zeion Simpson-Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the NEV 34
94.6%
+0.7
Q4 14:54
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marshaun Brown
94.6%
0.0
Q4 14:44
Bailey Ettridge punt for 58 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 1 yd to the MTSU 5
94.6%
0.0
MTSU · Drive 21PUNT · 10 plays · 32 yds
Q4 14:31
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
89.6%
-5.0
Q4 14:15
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 15 for a 1ST down
89.6%
0.0
Q4 13:36
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 8 yds to the MTSU 23
89.6%
0.0
Q4 13:16
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion Walker
89.8%
+0.3
Q4 13:00
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST down
91.0%
+1.2
Q4 12:23
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST down
91.0%
0.0
Q4 11:47
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the MTSU 42
91.0%
0.0
Q4 11:24
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae Cox
91.2%
+0.3
Q4 11:18
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Thomas Witte for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 37
91.2%
0.0
Q4 10:39
Ashton Logan punt for 59 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 38 yds to the NEV 42
91.2%
0.0
NEV · Drive 22INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 10:29
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Juwon Gaston return for no gain to the MTSU 40
94.6%
+3.3
MTSU · Drive 23TD · 10 plays · 60 yds
Q4 10:15
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the MTSU 49
91.2%
-3.4
Q4 9:50
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down
91.2%
0.0
Q4 8:56
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 10 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST down
91.3%
+0.1
Q4 8:44
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 5 yds to the NEV 34
91.3%
0.0
Q4 8:18
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Tayvion Galloway
91.3%
0.0
Q4 8:05
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
91.3%
0.0
Q4 7:39
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 14 yds to the NEV 13 for a 1ST down
91.3%
0.0
Q4 7:13
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the NEV 13
91.3%
0.0
Q4 6:40
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion Walker
91.3%
0.0
Q4 6:30
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
76.6%
-14.7
NEV · Drive 24MISSED FG · 10 plays · 51 yds
Q4 6:30
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
78.4%
+1.7
Q4 6:24
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the NEV 29
86.4%
+8.0
Q4 5:41
Herschel Turner run for 7 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
86.8%
+0.4
Q4 4:54
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 37
87.8%
+1.0
Q4 4:54
Timeout Nevada, clock 04:54
87.5%
-0.3
Q4 4:47
Chubba Purdy run for 30 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST down
87.5%
0.0
Q4 4:04
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 34
88.0%
+0.5
Q4 3:43
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the MTSU 30
88.0%
0.0
Q4 2:55
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds to the MTSU 24
89.5%
+1.4
Q4 2:15
Joe McFadden 41 Yard Field Goal Missed
89.5%
0.0
MTSU · Drive 25TD · 14 plays · 76 yds
Q4 2:00
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 6 yds to the MTSU 30
81.3%
-8.2
Q4 1:50
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 9 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST down
81.3%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST down
81.1%
-0.2
Q4 1:04
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the NEV 45
80.5%
-0.6
Q4 0:58
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 9 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
80.5%
0.0
Q4 0:58
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:58
79.9%
-0.6
Q4 0:50
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae Cox
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:45
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 7 yds to the NEV 29
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 23 yds to the NEV 6 for a 1ST down
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:26
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the NEV 5
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:26
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:26
79.9%
0.0
Q4 0:21
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
31.0%
-48.9
Q4 0:21
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Hathaway,Jacob) 5 yards from NEV03 to NEV08. NO PLAY.
79.9%
+48.9
NEV · Drive 26MISSED FG · 7 plays · 36 yds
Q4 0:21
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
32.5%
-47.4
Q4 0:15
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:15
39.3%
+6.7
Q4 0:14
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 18 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down
39.3%
0.0
Q4 0:11
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 9 yds to the MTSU 48
38.5%
-0.7
Q4 0:04
Chubba Purdy run for 9 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST down
36.0%
-2.5
Q4 0:04
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:04
36.7%
+0.6
Q4 0:00
Joe McFadden 56 Yard Field Goal Missed
33.6%
-3.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
-48.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:21
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Hathaway,Jacob) 5 yards from NEV03 to NEV08. NO PLAY.
+48.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:21
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-47.4