Nevada

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1547th
  Defense+0.1546th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.7%48th
  Defense47.2%13th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1534th
  Defense+1.0791st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1362nd
  Defense+0.1335th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1944th
  Defense+0.1858th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.7%53rd
  Defense53.1%5th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.5%28th
  Defense33.6%43rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0160th
  Defense3.2215th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.0%67th
  Defense18.7%38th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%37th
  Defense1.8%38th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Nevada allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SUU
2. W
   WSU
3. L
   ARIZ
4. W
   SJSU
5. L
   BOIS
6. L
   CSU
7. W
   BYU
8. W
   HAW
9. W
   SDSU
10. L
    AF
11. L
    FRES
12. W
    UNLV
13. L
    UL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Nevada.

Players, 2014

1. Cody FajardoQB449 plays · +0.261 pts/play · 21st of 199 QBs
   2.19WAR1.45 to 2.93
2. Don JacksonRB179 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 63rd of 350 RBs
   0.31WAR0.17 to 0.45
3. James ButlerRB107 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 70th of 350 RBs
   0.29WAR0.18 to 0.39
4. Hasaan HendersonWR50 plays · +0.217 pts/play · 69th of 469 WRs
   0.20WAR0.11 to 0.28
5. Brent ZuzoPK15 plays · +0.470 pts/play · 33rd of 114 kickers
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.18
6. Richy TurnerWR79 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 171st of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.02 to 0.24
7. Alex BoyP48 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 54th of 94 punters
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.15
8. Jarred GipsonTE39 plays · +0.040 pts/play · 6th of 212 TEs
   0.03WAR−0.05 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Nevada's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Nevada's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs FRESQ3 11:08 4th & 1 at NEV 25, down 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
2. at ULQ3 4:16 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. vs CSUQ4 6:22 4th & 5 at CSU 11, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.7 pts
4. at ULQ2 2:42 4th & 3 at UL 3, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at BYUQ3 4:20 4th & 3 at BYU 49, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs SDSUQ2 4:57 4th & 1 at NEV 32, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at ULQ3 13:05 4th & 3 at NEV 47, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. vs CSUQ3 7:22 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

74th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Nevada's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 12 of 13 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   SUU
2. W

   WSU
3. L

   ARIZ
4. W

   SJSU
5. L

   BOIS
6. L

   CSU
7. W

   BYU
8. W

   HAW
9. W

   SDSU
10. L

    AF
11. L

    FRES
12. W

    UNLV
13. L

    UL

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Nevada's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.16
• Possession & field position−0.06
• Clock−0.18
• Timeouts+0.18
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.06

Game by game

• SUUW 28-19 vs SUU88% → 97%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +1
• WSUW 24-13 vs WSU37% → 96%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +44, Possession & field position −2
• ARIZL 28-35 at ARIZ12% → 3%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1
• SJSUW 21-10 at SJSU59% → 95%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• BOISL 46-51 vs BOIS44% → 7%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3
• CSUL 24-31 vs CSU44% → 6%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• BYUW 42-35 at BYU21% → 95%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +57, Clock +4
• SDSUW 30-14 vs SDSU64% → 99%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +1
• AFL 38-45 at AF58% → 9%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts +18
• FRESL 20-40 vs FRES70% → 1%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −62, Clock −3
• UNLVW 49-27 at UNLV76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• ULL 3-16 at UL53% → 1%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Nevada's side.

Closest call

USU 37-38 NEV (2016) - Nevada dropped to a 7.5% win probability before pulling it out.