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BOIS

Boise State 51 at Nevada 46

NEV
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:22: Cody Fajardo pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Gray return for 32 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:38: Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:03: Jay Ajayi run for 26 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +13.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:18: Grant Hedrick pass intercepted for a TD Ian Seau return for 32 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +12.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:04: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +11.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:09BOIS 4th & 9 at NEV 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:59BOIS 4th & 9 at NEV 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:03BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:23NEV 4th & 6 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:03NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 42, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  6. Q4 7:56NEV 4th & 22 at BOIS 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−5.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−9.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:56BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 33, up 5
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:58NEV 4th & 15 at BOIS 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:15BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:34NEV 4th & 8 at BOIS 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−3.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:54BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:36NEV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:08NEV Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:22BOIS Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:32BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:38BOIS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:53NEV Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:03BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:18NEV Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:22BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:04NEV Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:5157% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
43.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
43.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+14
43.5%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matthew Lyons) to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
43.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
43.5%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+26
43.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 26 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
43.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+9
43.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 9 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
43.5%
AJAYI, Jay rush for 18 yards to the NEV9 (HAIKINS, Nigel;JOHNSON, K.), PENALTY BSU illegal block (BAGGETT, Steven) 15 yards to the NEV42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+3
43.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 39
+13
43.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 13 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
43.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
44.7%
Dan Goodale 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.0%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
44.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+15
44.7%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for 15 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2756% → 58%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
44.3%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
44.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+12
44.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 12 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
44.3%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
44.3%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 9 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4143% → 47%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.6%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
42.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 28 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
43.5%
James Butler run for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+30
43.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 30 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
47.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:5854% → 59%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
45.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 11 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
45.8%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
45.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+19
46.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+9
44.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+28
44.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 28 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
44.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
41.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale BLOCKED), (Dan Goodale BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3543% → 51%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
44.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
44.4%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
44.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
44.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
44.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+12
44.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
45.9%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+22
45.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 22 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
51.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:3251% → 55%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
49.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 21 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
47.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
47.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
47.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 7 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
47.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 17 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
46.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 5 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-3
46.5%
Grant Hedrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+8
47.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 8 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.3%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
46.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
47.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
44.7%
Dan Goodale 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5147% → 59%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to James Butler for 1 yd James Butler fumbled, forced by Kamalei Correa, recovered by Nevad Kyle RobertsSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
46.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Cleshawn PageSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+30
45.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 30 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
49.4%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
49.7%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+34
49.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 34 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
50.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
59.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
53.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+13
53.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 13 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
53.2%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
53.8%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Bryan Lane Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
54.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+9
55.4%
Sean Wale punt for 55 yds , Richy Turner returns for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1458% → 46%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+32
45.8%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Gray return for 32 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.0%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
46.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.4%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Donte Deayon return for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:4558% → 70%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+55
42.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 55 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
40.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.3%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:2733% → 35%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive offside (N/A) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
33.8%
Don Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
35.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 27 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-16
37.9%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Tanner Vallejo for a loss of 16 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 26
OPP 46
+1
35.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.1%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
34.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
32.8%
FAJARDO, Cody pass incomplete to GIPSON, Jarred, PENALTY BSU pass interference (SUMNER-GARDNER) 13 yards to the NEV33, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.5%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Dylan Sumner-Gardner return for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:0370% → 83%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
30.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Holden Huff for 23 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
30.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 5 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:4022% → 34%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
21.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 15 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
22.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-1
24.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+56
34.2%
Cody Fajardo 56 Yd Run (Cody Fajardo Pass to Richy Turner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0069% → 72%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
30.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
30.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 6 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
28.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 19 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
28.4%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 46 Jay Ajayi fumbled, recovered by Nevad Rykeem Yates , return for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4134% → 30%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
34.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 6
50
0
34.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 6
50
0
32.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 6
50
0
29.6%
Alex Boy punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0672% → 89%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
28.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
29.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
27.0%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Brock Hekking for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+9
28.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 9 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
26.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
25.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
50
+20
25.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 20 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
25.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
11.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 26 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.4%
FAJARDO, Cody pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H., PENALTY BSU pass interference (PAGE, Cleshawn) 15 yards to the NEV40, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.6%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.0%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
16.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+16
15.9%
Alex Boy punt for 51 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 16 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21INT TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5888% → 79%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
12.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
12.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+19
12.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 19 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
11.3%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+3
9.0%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+32
21.3%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted for a TD Ian Seau return for 32 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:5278% → 93%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+74
21.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 74 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
17.6%
DEMAS, Devan rush for loss of 2 yards to the NEV7 (YATES, Rykeem), PENALTY NEV face mask (YATES, Rykeem) 3 yards to the NEV2, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1813% → 27%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
12.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+51
13.4%
James Butler run for 51 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
15.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
26.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 84%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
18.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 18 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
16.1%
Grant Hedrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 42 Grant Hedrick fumbled, forced by Rykeem Yates, recovered by Nevad Jonathan McNealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:3425% → 28%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
25.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
26.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to James Butler for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
24.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
26.7%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+12
26.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
26.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
26.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-12
24.6%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Kamalei Correa and Gabe Perez for a loss of 12 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 22
OPP 28
+45
27.9%
Brent Zuzo 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
24.5%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the BoiSt 33 Grant Hedrick fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Grant HedrickSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
26.1%
Sean Wale punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
27.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 11 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
29.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 9 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-2
31.7%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
30.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
32.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Cleshawn PageSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
30.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
26.9%
BOY, Alex pass complete to BERTRANDO, Alex for 11 yards to the BSU29 (VALLEJO, Tanner;GRAY, Tyler), PENALTY NEV illegal touching (BERTRANDO, Alex) 5 yards to the BSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
25.2%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3083% → 85%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
17.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
16.4%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-2
17.7%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+9
14.9%
Sean Wale punt for 39 yds , Richy Turner returns for 9 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:2925% → 16%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
25.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
27.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-4
30.1%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Beau Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
18.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Tanner VallejoSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
15.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-1
7.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:03
Jay Ajayi run for 26 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 12:38
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 3:22
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Gray return for 32 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com