Try the model
NEV

Nevada 28 at Arizona 35

ARIZ
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:17 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +5.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:03: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Don Jackson GOOD) — NEV win probability +19.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:34: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 22 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:01: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +9.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at ARIZ 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34NEV 4th & 5 at ARIZ 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27ARIZ 4th & 1 at NEV 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42NEV 4th & 3 at ARIZ 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:32NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 39, down 1
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:04NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:53ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:34NEV 4th & 25 at NEV 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:21ARIZ 4th & 10 at NEV 35, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:15ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:04NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 1:50ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:04ARIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08NEV Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:03NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:34ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:01NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 9:2612% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
87.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 15 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
87.6%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
87.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 10 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
87.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+2
87.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
87.6%
James Butler run for no gain to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+1
87.6%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
87.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 8 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+5
87.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.6%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
87.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
84.0%
Brent Zuzo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 3:3784% → 85%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.9%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
83.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+27
83.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 27 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
84.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 5 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+13
84.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 13 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
84.8%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+17
84.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 17 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
84.8%
Anu Solomon run for 6 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
84.8%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
84.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
84.3%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 6:0816% → 19%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.3%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
84.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
83.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 15 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
83.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
83.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+8
83.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+11
82.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 11 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
82.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
82.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-9
83.0%
FAJARDO, Cody pass complete to BUTLER, James for 9 yards to the ARIZ20 (Jones, Tel.), PENALTY NEV holding 9 yards to the ARIZ38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+27
83.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 27 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
82.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
82.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
83.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
81.5%
Brent Zuzo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
82.6%
Nick Wilson run for 17 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
83.6%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+15
83.7%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Grant, S., PENALTY NEV pass interference 15 yards to the NEV29, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
84.0%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Teré Calloway return for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
81.3%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
81.1%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
81.0%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
81.3%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:4082% → 87%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
82.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 5 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
82.4%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+8
81.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 8 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
82.7%
Solomon, A. pass complete to Richards, D. for 16 yards to the NEV46 (JOHNSON, K.), PENALTY ARIZ ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ARIZ33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+13
82.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 13 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+17
83.3%
Anu Solomon run for 17 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
83.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+28
86.9%
Nick Wilson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.0%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Jake Matthews for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
86.5%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+9
86.8%
Alex Boy punt for 55 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 9 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1286% → 92%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.1%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
86.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
87.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
87.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 5 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
92.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 35 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:009% → 17%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
90.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.4%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+25
89.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 25 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
89.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 7 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+6
88.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
88.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 13 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.1%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
86.3%
Anu Solomon run for 9 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
86.8%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
86.5%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
87.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
86.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+3
86.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 44 yds , Richy Turner returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 7:1315% → 37%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
85.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 10 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
85.0%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
84.1%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
84.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.3%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-6
84.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
85.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+29
85.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 29 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
83.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
82.2%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
82.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 3 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
83.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 5 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
82.2%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
62.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Don Jackson GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2471% → 87%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
71.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 27 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
74.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
74.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 12
50
0
72.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 12
50
+10
71.8%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Phillips, N., PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the NEV40, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
74.7%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
75.6%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
74.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+14
74.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
86.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 22 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.0%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
81.4%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.0%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Derrick Turituri for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-5
83.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 10Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+5
83.8%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3587% → 95%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 9
50
+10
87.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
87.3%
Anu Solomon run for 13 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
87.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
95.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
92.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.2%
Alex Boy punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
95.0%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.3%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+20
95.2%
Nick Wilson run for 20 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
95.4%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
95.4%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-11
95.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-11 Yards) to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+7
95.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+9
94.6%
Anu Solomon run for 9 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:106% → 17%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
93.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 20 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
93.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 15 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
92.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 15 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
91.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 4 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+11
91.9%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
91.9%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:3791% → 95%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
90.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 9Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+17
90.6%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
91.0%
Nick Wilson run for 13 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
91.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+3
90.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+4
93.6%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+10
94.0%
Nick Wilson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
94.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
93.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 24 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
92.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
92.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Jonathan McKnightSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
93.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0696% → 97%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
95.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
95.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
96.8%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
97.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:03
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Don Jackson GOOD)
-19.3
TD · Q3 3:34
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 22 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q4 6:01
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com