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USU

Utah State 9 at Nevada 34

NEV
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2020 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:41 · Matt Freem punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+37.7Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:32: Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +1.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:54: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +3.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:30: Toa Taua run for 15 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:03: Brandon Talton 36 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:45: Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 10 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:46NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41USU 4th & 7 at NEV 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:12USU 4th & 3 at NEV 48, up 2
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:41NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 11 at USU 17, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54NEV 4th & 2 at USU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:06NEV 4th & 3 at USU 3, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:20USU 4th & 12 at USU 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54USU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 12
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:38NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 42, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:30USU 4th & 6 at USU 42, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:16NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:18USU 4th & 5 at USU 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:03NEV 4th & 9 at USU 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:03USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 2 at USU 21, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:45NEV 4th & 9 at USU 9, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:36USU 4th & 13 at USU 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:40NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 39, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:08USU 4th & 7 at NEV 24, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:32USU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38NEV Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:06NEV Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:54NEV Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:30NEV Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1490% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
90.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+12
90.2%
Devonte Lee run for 12 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-3
89.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
89.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
89.5%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+1
89.5%
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
89.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 32 yds , AJ King returns for no gain to the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3SF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-5
88.9%
Carson Strong sacked by AJ Vongphachanh for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
88.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 10 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
50
+2
88.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
88.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
88.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+6
88.4%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
88.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+1
88.3%
Matt Freem punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:5312% → 15%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
87.8%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
87.7%
Jason Shelley run for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
87.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+20
87.6%
Jason Shelley run for 20 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
87.5%
Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+7
87.5%
SHELLEY, Jason pass incomplete to NATHAN, Jordan, PENALTY NEV pass interference (ROBINS, Berdale) 7 yards to the NEV4, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
86.5%
THOMPKINS, D. rush for 4 yards to the NEV0, clock 06:17, PENALTY USU holding (MCGRIFF, Justin) 6 yards to the NEV10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
86.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Andy Koch) to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
86.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriff, broken up by AJ KingSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
86.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
86.7%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside (Zak Mahannah) to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:4886% → 86%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
85.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
85.7%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+9
85.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
86.0%
TAUA, Toa rush for 2 yards to the USU45 (VONGPHACHANH, A), PENALTY NEV holding (FROST, Aaron) 10 yards to the NEV43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 20
OWN 43
-10
85.6%
TAUA, Toa rush for 5 yards to the NEV48 (LAMPKIN, Cam), PENALTY NEV personal foul (IKAHIHIFO, H.) 10 yards to the NEV33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 30
OWN 33
+17
85.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 13
50
+8
85.7%
Devonte Lee run for 8 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+42
86.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 42 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3215% → 15%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
84.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-11
84.8%
HENRY-COLE, D. rush for 2 yards to the USU24 (WILLIAMS, Tyson), PENALTY USU illegal block (THOMPKINS, D.) 11 yards to the USU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+6
85.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 6 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
85.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Devonta'e Henry-ColeSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
84.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4885% → 86%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
84.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
85.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
85.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 4 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+4
85.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+22
84.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 22 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
85.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 20 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:4015% → 15%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
84.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
84.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
84.0%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
84.5%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:2086% → 90%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
85.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+7
85.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 7 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
86.0%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
86.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
89.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 20 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
88.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
88.2%
Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 5
50
0
88.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 5
50
0
88.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nevad 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13END OF HALF
18 plays · 57 yds · 4:5589% → 91%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
88.9%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 8
-1
88.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+15
88.4%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to ROSS, Charles, PENALTY USU illegal use of hands (HANSEN, James) 15 yards to the NEV22, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-1
89.0%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+12
88.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
89.2%
STRONG, Carson pass complete to ROSS, Charles for 8 yards to the NEV41, PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the NEV23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+5
89.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+14
88.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
89.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+4
88.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
89.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
89.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-11
89.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 45 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Aaron Frost , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 22
OWN 45
+15
90.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 15 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
89.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
89.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
89.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 23 , Romeo Doubs returns for 2 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:3391% → 96%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
90.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 11 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
90.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 36 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
91.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
91.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 4 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
90.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 9 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.4%
Toa Taua run for 15 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
94.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
94.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 5 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
94.2%
KOTSANLEE, S. punt 37 yards to the NEV30, DOUBS, Romeo return to the NEV30, fumble by DOUBS, Romeo recovered by NEV DOUBS, Romeo at NEV33, PENALTY NEV illegal shift 5 yards to the USU38, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
94.1%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
94.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
94.1%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Charles Ross at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
96.3%
Matt Freem punt for 41 yds, downed at the UthSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.0%
Andrew Peasley run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
94.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
94.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.6%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
94.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
94.7%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
94.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:5497% → 99%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+60
96.8%
Toa Taua run for 60 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 7 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
97.0%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
97.0%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
97.0%
Carson Strong sacked by Marcus Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+10
97.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 10 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
97.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
98.5%
Brandon Talton 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Devonta'e Henry-ColeSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds, downed at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:2399% → 100%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
98.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 14 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
98.7%
Avery Morrow run for 17 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-7
98.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Jared Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 0
+15
98.7%
PENALTY NEV delay of game 5 yards to the USU44, PENALTY USU personal foul (TE'I, Justus) 15 yards to the USU29, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
98.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
98.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
98.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
98.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+12
98.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 12 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
98.9%
Romeo Doubs run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
99.6%
Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
99.5%
Jason Shelley sacked by Amir Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+7
99.3%
Deven Thompkins run for 7 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+2
99.4%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Charles Ross at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Charles Ross for 10 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.7%
Wesley Kommer run for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Nate Cox run for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-5
99.7%
NEVADA Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-4
99.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Charles Ross) to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell, broken up by Troy Lefeged Jr.Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+28
99.7%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the NEVADA 19 NEVADA Penalty, kick catching interference (-14 Yards) to the UthSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+10
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Carson Terrell for 10 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Pailate Makakona for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 9 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
99.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Pailate Makakona for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriff, broken up by AJ KingSimilar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:30
Toa Taua run for 15 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 6:54
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 5:32
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com