Georgia Southern

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1878th
  Defense+0.237th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.5%74th
  Defense49.0%2nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2133rd
  Defense+1.2551st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1576th
  Defense+0.251st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2771st
  Defense+0.2721st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.1%59th
  Defense54.0%2nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.6%89th
  Defense36.8%2nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2286th
  Defense3.401st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.6%70th
  Defense16.1%17th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.6%69th
  Defense15.0%39th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia Southern allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   FRES
2. L
   USC
3. W
   JXST
4. W
   ME
5. L
   JMU
6. L
   USM
7. W
   GAST
8. L
   ARST
9. W
   APP
10. W
    CCU
11. L
    ODU
12. W
    MRSH
13. W
    APP

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia Southern.

Players, 2025

1. JC French IVQB389 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 59th of 231 QBs
   1.27WAR0.60 to 1.92
2. Camden BrownWR76 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 24th of 451 WRs
   0.30WAR0.15 to 0.46
3. OJ ArnoldRB130 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 67th of 365 RBs
   0.26WAR0.18 to 0.34
4. Marcus Sanders Jr.WR58 plays · +0.200 pts/play · 55th of 451 WRs
   0.22WAR0.11 to 0.35
5. Tripp BryantPK16 plays · +0.294 pts/play · 50th of 112 kickers
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
6. Dalen CobbWR66 plays · +0.048 pts/play · 281st of 451 WRs
   0.06WAR−0.03 to 0.15
7. David MbadingaRB28 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 279th of 365 RBs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.06
8. Ahmon GreenTE16 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 157th of 213 TEs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia Southern's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  57457493rd of 134Roster talent: 574, 93rd of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14214292nd of 134Recruiting: 142, 92nd of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  66%66%17th of 132Returning production: 66%, 17th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.4−9.4101st of 134SP+ rating: −9.4, 101st of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia Southern's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at APPQ4 5:24 4th & 1 at GASO 10, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.5 pts
2. at APPQ4 9:05 4th & 2 at APP 7, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. at ARSTQ4 1:56 4th & 3 at ARST 3, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
4. vs CCUQ4 14:57 4th & 2 at CCU 10, up 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at APPQ2 0:01 4th & 2 at APP 18, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs USMQ4 3:53 4th & 15 at USM 49, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at MRSHQ2 11:33 4th & 3 at GASO 39, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at APPQ1 4:11 4th & 3 at APP 3, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

53rd of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia Southern's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   FRES
2. L

   USC
3. W

   JXST
4. W

   ME
5. L

   JMU
6. L

   USM
7. W

   GAST
8. L

   ARST
9. W

   APP
10. W

    CCU
11. L

    ODU
12. W

    MRSH
13. W

    APP

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Georgia Southern's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.69
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts−0.15
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.04

Game by game

• FRESL 14-42 at FRES52% → 0%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −50, Timeouts +2
• USCL 20-59 at USC3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• JXSTW 41-34 vs JXST65% → 98%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +33, Clock +1
• MEW 45-17 vs ME94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• JMUL 10-35 at JMU16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts +1
• USML 35-38 vs USM48% → 5%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• GASTW 41-24 vs GAST68% → 99%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts −4
• ARSTL 24-34 at ARST49% → 3%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −37, Possession & field position −1
• APPW 25-23 at APP43% → 93%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• CCUW 45-40 vs CCU63% → 91%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −11
• ODUL 10-45 vs ODU27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −34, Clock −2
• MRSHW 24-19 at MRSH32% → 97%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +58, Clock +2
• APPW 29-10 at APP79% → 99%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +30, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Georgia Southern's side.

Closest call

LT 3-38 GASO (2020) - Georgia Southern dropped to a 0.4% win probability before pulling it out.