2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreJXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:57 · Alex Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Glover at the JXST 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +8.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 0:24: Gavin Wimsatt run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +10.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Defense has -3 timeouts left).
- TD · Q3 0:22: Brock Rechsteiner run for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +29.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:19: Tripp Bryant 43 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +10.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:23: OJ Arnold run for 6 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +24.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 1:44GASO 4th & 7 at JXST 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it60.1%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call60.3%79% to makePunt58.5%−1.8average punt
- Q2 10:38JXST 4th & 5 at GASO 13, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call32.3%85% to makePunt27.5%−4.8average punt
- Q2 4:15JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q2 2:57GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q3 9:34JXST 4th & 8 at GASO 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snapGo for it27.3%−1.332% to convertField goalTheir call28.6%81% to makePunt19.7%−8.9average punt
- Q3 7:49GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 43, up 4Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it69.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 5:22JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.7%−2.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q4 11:19GASO 4th & 7 at JXST 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snapGo for it46.7%−1.236% to convertField goalTheir call47.8%66% to makePunt34.4%−13.4average punt
- Q4 9:56JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snapGo for it38.4%−5.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%average punt
- Q4 3:51JXST 4th & 14 at JXST 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:04GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:34JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.6%97% to makeGo for two39.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:22GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.6%97% to makeGo for two62.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:42JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.5%97% to makeGo for two39.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.0%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:54GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.7%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24JXST Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.3%97% to makeGo for two27.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:22JXST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 6:23GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.3%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−1.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:4265% → 67%
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+16
65.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Dylan Gary for 16 yds to the JXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+14
65.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 14 yds to the JXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+12
65.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Terrance Gibbs for 12 yds to the JXST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2334% → 37%
Q1 9:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
66.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 15 yds to the JXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
66.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 8 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+16
66.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 16 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3333% → 37%
Q1 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+56
63.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 56 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4FG11 plays · 15 yds · 1:4566% → 66%
JXSTDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass intercepted Ayden Jackson return for no gain to the JXST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3567% → 76%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
76.3%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7FG11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1230% → 31%
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
50
+32
68.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 32 yds to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
67.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 3 yds to the GASO 15Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
67.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for no gain to the GASO 15Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
69.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 2 yds to the GASO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3674% → 84%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 5 yds to the GASO 30Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
74.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Terrance Gibbs for 3 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
75.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 15 yds to the JXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2723% → 21%
Q2 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Pettway) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1383% → 84%
Q2 2:57
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Alex Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Glover at the JXST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11TD13 plays · 66 yds · 2:2422% → 31%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
78.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 7 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
79.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 8 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+6
79.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Deondre Johnson for 6 yds to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+8
80.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 8 yds to the GASO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13FG13 plays · 49 yds · 5:2128% → 33%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
71.9%
Cam Cook run for 10 yds to the JXST 45 Cam Cook fumbled, recovered by JXST Brock Rechsteiner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
71.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 7 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-5
70.2%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Lando,Khristian rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GASO08 (Tyson,Brandon) PENALTY JSU Illegal Formation (Johnson,Deondre) 5 yards from GASO14 to GASO19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+3
70.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Michael Pettway for 3 yds to the GASO 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3570% → 70%
JXSTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2132% → 29%
Q3 5:22
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
70.6%
Conor Donaghy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the GASO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 36 yds · 1:5871% → 73%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
71.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 13 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+8
74.4%
David Mbadinga run for no gain to the JXST 41 Jacksonville State Penalty, (8 Yards) to the JXST 49Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+19
72.9%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 19 yds Dalen Cobb fumbled, recovered by JXST Chase AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17TD7 plays · 42 yds · 2:4837% → 62%
Q3 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
62.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 5 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+2
65.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 2 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+15
67.4%
Georgia Southern Penalty, (15 Yards) to the GASO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:4148% → 60%
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+11
51.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 11 yds to the GASO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+23
45.7%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 23 yds to the JXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
53.2%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 3 yds to the JXST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1346% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0458% → 90%
Q4 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+9
63.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 9 yds to the JXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
65.5%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Bryan,Weston rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JSU 09 (O'Steen,Walker) PENALTY JSU Offside (Floyd,Tae) 5 yards from JSU 13 to JSU 08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1815% → 13%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
83.3%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Wimsatt,Gavin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JSU 40 (Harrington,Brendan) PENALTY JSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from JSU 37 to JSU 32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-3
85.3%
Caden Creel sacked by Devin Collier for a loss of 3 yards to the JXST 29Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Conor Donaghy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the GASO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22END OF GAME13 plays · 37 yds · 3:4392% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:22
Brock Rechsteiner run for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-29
TD · Q4 6:23
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q2 0:24
Gavin Wimsatt run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
-10.9