Georgia Southern

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0937th
  Defense+0.1247th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.7%26th
  Defense41.9%58th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1947th
  Defense+1.2628th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1269th
  Defense−0.0170th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0116th
  Defense+0.2622nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.9%30th
  Defense45.8%70th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.7%17th
  Defense34.4%35th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9250th
  Defense2.5982nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%49th
  Defense22.7%79th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.5%81st
  Defense22.2%78th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia Southern allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   LSU
2. W
   ME
3. L
   MINN
4. L
   UL
5. W
   USA
6. W
   CCU
7. W
   NMSU
8. W
   APP
9. L
   TROY
10. W
    ULM
11. L
    ARST
12. W
    GAST
13. L
    LIB

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia Southern.

Players, 2019

1. Wesley Kennedy IIIRB119 plays · +0.250 pts/play · 40th of 349 RBs
   0.56WAR0.44 to 0.68
2. J.D. KingRB138 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 102nd of 349 RBs
   0.39WAR0.28 to 0.50
3. Shai WertsWR133 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 7th of 439 WRs
   0.38WAR0.16 to 0.58
4. Tyler BassPK20 plays · +0.540 pts/play · 10th of 114 kickers
   0.20WAR0.15 to 0.26
5. Anthony Beck IIP51 plays · +0.191 pts/play · 1st of 100 punters
   0.18WAR0.09 to 0.30
6. Matt LaRocheRB41 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 259th of 349 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
7. Logan WrightRB26 plays · +0.209 pts/play · 264th of 349 RBs
   0.10WAR0.09 to 0.12
8. Justin TomlinQB21 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 215th of 228 QBs
   0.06WAR−0.02 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia Southern's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  412412102nd of 130Roster talent: 412, 102nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13513591st of 130Recruiting: 135, 91st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  75%75%30th of 130Returning production: 75%, 30th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.5−4.586th of 130SP+ rating: −4.5, 86th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia Southern's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USAQ3 3:42 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. vs MEQ3 7:41 4th & 3 at ME 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. vs ULQ2 8:05 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. at TROYQ4 9:37 4th & 12 at TROY 30, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs MEQ3 3:01 4th & 2 at ME 14, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at APPQ2 1:48 4th & 2 at APP 47, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs LIBQ2 10:02 4th & 2 at GASO 38, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at USAQ3 6:23 4th & 6 at USA 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

53rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia Southern's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   LSU
2. W

   ME
3. L

   MINN
4. L

   UL
5. W

   USA
6. W

   CCU
7. W

   NMSU
8. W

   APP
9. L

   TROY
10. W

    ULM
11. L

    ARST
12. W

    GAST
13. L

    LIB

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Georgia Southern's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.97
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.10
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04

Game by game

• LSUL 3-55 at LSU4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• MEW 26-18 vs ME76% → 97%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• MINNL 32-35 at MINN10% → 98%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +88: Scoreboard +63, Clock +3
• ULL 24-37 vs UL36% → 2%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• USAW 20-17 at USA76% → 72%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +32, Clock −18
• CCUW 30-27 vs CCU67% → 86%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts −19
• NMSUW 41-7 vs NMSU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +23, Possession & field position −1
• APPW 24-21 at APP16% → 82%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• TROYL 28-49 at TROY55% → 0%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −50, Timeouts +1
• ULMW 51-29 vs ULM67% → 99%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +34, Clock +1
• ARSTL 33-38 at ARST47% → 5%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −2
• GASTW 38-10 vs GAST65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +35, Possession & field position +1
• LIBL 16-23 vs LIB60% → 5%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Georgia Southern's side.

Closest call

LT 3-38 GASO (2020) - Georgia Southern dropped to a 0.4% win probability before pulling it out.