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GASO

Georgia Southern 33 at Arkansas State 38

ARST
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:07 · Khaleb Hood pass incomplete to Shai Werts
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense+14.7Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Pregame prior+1.8Blowout margin+4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Tyler Bass kickoff for 59 yds , Kirk Merritt return for 94 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +11.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:07: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +10.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:52: Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +12.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:51: Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 8 yds for a TD (Shai Werts pass to Mark Michaud for Two-Point Conversion) — GASO win probability +10.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:50: Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GASO win probability +19.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at GASO 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19GASO 4th & 4 at ARST 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54GASO 4th & 2 at ARST 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:57GASO 4th & 17 at GASO 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:07GASO 4th & 3 at ARST 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:22GASO 4th & 3 at ARST 20, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 23, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:43ARST 4th & 2 at GASO 2, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:46ARST 4th & 2 at GASO 30, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:46GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:25ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 16 at GASO 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:06ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:29ARST 4th & 9 at GASO 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51GASO 4th & 11 at ARST 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−4.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:54ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:37ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:11GASO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:07ARST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:52GASO Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51GASO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:50GASO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.0%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
53.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
53.0%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
53.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+14
53.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
53.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
53.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
53.0%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FG
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:4647% → 47%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
53.3%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+56
53.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 56 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
52.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
52.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+2
53.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
53.0%
Tyler Bass 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1753% → 56%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
53.3%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+29
52.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 29 yds to the ARKST 36 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
53.8%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
54.1%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
54.1%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Merritt, Kirk for 1 yard to the GS21, out-of-bounds (;J. Liptrot), PENALTY ASU HL (Isaac, Javonis) 10 yards to the GS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+32
55.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 32 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.2%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
55.5%
Shai Werts run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.5%
Matt LaRoche run for no gain to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
54.7%
Matt LaRoche run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
54.3%
Matt LaRoche run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+13
54.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
54.0%
Gerald Green run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
53.9%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
54.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+1
54.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4456% → 62%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
56.3%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+7
56.9%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
62.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 63 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.6%
Shai Werts pass incomplete, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
61.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32 Matt LaRoche fumbled, forced by B.J. Edmonds, recovered by ArkSt Tukua Ahoia GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
71.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 32 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 6:1930% → 37%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
69.7%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
69.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.5%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
50
+7
69.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 7 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
69.1%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
68.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-10
69.0%
W. Kennedy III rush for no gain to the ASU36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY GS HL (J. Webb) 10 yards to the ASU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+32
74.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 32 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
71.2%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
63.0%
Shai Werts run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
75.0%
S. Werts pass incomplete, PENALTY GS intentional grounding (S. Werts) 7 yards to the GS6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 17
OWN 6
-1
75.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+1
75.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 17
OWN 6
+21
76.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 36 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the GeoSo 42 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
86.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
78.4%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+64
78.9%
Shai Werts run for 64 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
72.4%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
72.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Mark MichaudSimilar
Q2 6:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.6%
Khaleb Hood pass incomplete to Shai WertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4488% → 89%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
87.6%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-3
89.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:4113% → 27%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
86.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to NaJee Thompson for 19 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
86.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
85.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 2 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+5
85.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
86.1%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+7
86.2%
Tyler Bass pass complete to Anthony Beck II for 7 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
85.7%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
73.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.7%
Marcel Murray run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
83.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
50
+12
83.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 12 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
83.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
83.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Rashad Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-7
83.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Randy Wade Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 39 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by GeoSo A.J. Watkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
78.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
78.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-6
78.3%
Shai Werts sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
79.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0481% → 92%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
81.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
81.0%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+21
80.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 21 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
81.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
81.2%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
81.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 25 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
81.8%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
81.8%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.2%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
91.6%
Blake Grupe 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:4412% → 25%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
88.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+64
87.7%
Shai Werts run for 64 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
85.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
85.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
75.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 8 yds for a TD (Shai Werts pass to Mark Michaud for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5680% → 80%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
79.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
80.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Monquavion Brinson) to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
81.0%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Reynard Ellis for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+5
80.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+11
79.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 11 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+47
80.4%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0022% → 19%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
78.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 11 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
77.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
78.2%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
79.7%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
80.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 36 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0582% → 84%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
82.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
81.9%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
84.2%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:1817% → 16%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
82.6%
Gerald Green run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
80.6%
W. Kennedy III rush for 5 yards to the GS43 (Brown, J.), PENALTY GS HL (C. Kelly) 10 yards to the GS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-2
82.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Darreon Jackson and William Bradley-King for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 26
-4
83.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 22
+15
84.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Darreon Jackson) to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.1%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
81.4%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-5
83.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (Shai Werts) to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
84.0%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 41 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
87.7%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-10
88.1%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Tyler, Reed for 13 yards to the ASU49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU HL (Still, Jacob) 10 yards to the ASU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+4
87.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
87.0%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Adams, Jonathan for 40 yards to the GS30, out-of-bounds (K. Hood), PENALTY ASU illegal touching (Adams, Jonathan) 0 yards to the ASU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1011% → 35%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
88.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
-2
89.3%
Shai Werts sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+14
90.0%
S. Werts pass incomplete to M. Michaud, PENALTY ASU roughing passer (Bradley-King, W) 14 yards to the GS36, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
87.7%
Gerald Green run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
86.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
86.1%
S. Werts pass incomplete to M. Michaud, PENALTY ASU targeting (Jackson, Darreo) 15 yards to the ASU25, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Colby RansomSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Mark Michaud, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:2185% → 93%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
84.6%
Jamal Jones run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
86.8%
Jamal Jones run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.6%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
87.6%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
87.8%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
94.2%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+6
93.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 30 Layne Hatcher fumbled, forced by Kenderick Duncan Jr., recovered by ArkSt Ernesto RamirezSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
93.1%
Blake Grupe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:3815% → 11%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
85.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 13 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
84.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to NaJee Thompson for 24 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik MurraySimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
78.3%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik MurraySimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-1
81.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+10
89.0%
Shai Werts run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:50
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.9
TD · Q2 0:52
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 7:57
Tyler Bass kickoff for 59 yds , Kirk Merritt return for 94 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com