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LIB

Liberty 23 at Georgia Southern 16

GASO
2019 · FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl · Dec 21, 2019 · Orlando City Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:06 · Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:31: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 57 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +4.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:53: Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +4.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:22: Joshua Mack run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Probert PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +4.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:01: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Alex Probert KICK) — LIB win probability +16.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:44: Tyler Bass 35 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +11.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 9 of 12LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:51GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:35LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:28GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:22GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:02LIB 4th & 6 at GASO 30, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:02GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:15LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:52GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:00LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:02LIB 4th & 11 at GASO 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:01GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:20GASO 4th & 4 at LIB 11, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−8.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49GASO 4th & 6 at LIB 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:49LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 18 at GASO 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:06LIB 4th & 2 at midfield, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:00GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:02LIB 4th & 3 at GASO 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−10.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:44GASO 4th & 8 at LIB 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:31LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:22LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:01LIB Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.3%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
60.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
60.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
60.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 47 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 21 DJ Stubbs fumbled, forced by NaJee Thompson, recovered by Liber DJ StubbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
60.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
60.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
60.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley, broken up by Darrell Baker Jr.Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
60.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
60.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
60.4%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-7
60.4%
Shai Werts sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 11
OWN 32
-2
60.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 53 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
60.2%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 11Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+15
60.3%
CALVERT, S. screen pass complete to MACK, J. for loss of 1 yard to the LIBERTY10 (J. Bowdry), PENALTY GS face mask (J. Bowdry) 15 yards to the LIBERTY26, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
60.2%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
60.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 8 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
60.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-4
60.4%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Dillon Springer for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
60.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
60.2%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
60.3%
Matt LaRoche run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
60.0%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 53 yds, downed at the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:4840% → 46%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
60.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
60.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+15
60.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 15 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
59.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
59.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, offside defense (Ty Phillips) to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
59.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+57
54.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 57 yds for a TD (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:3856% → 62%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
55.7%
S. Werts deep out pass incomplete to J. Liptrot, QB hurry by CLARK, T., QB hurry by LEMONIER, J., PENALTY LIBERTY holding (BENTON, E.) 10 yards to the GS31, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
55.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+35
55.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 35 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
57.6%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
57.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 8 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
57.6%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
57.6%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the Liber 10Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
61.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3141% → 48%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.1%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
59.0%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
59.6%
CALVERT, S. post pass incomplete to DOUGLAS, D., PENALTY GS pass interference (M. Brinson) 15 yards to the LIBERTY42, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
58.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Demario Douglas for 7 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+30
57.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 30 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
57.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Demario Douglas for 18 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.2%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Probert PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.2%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
55.5%
J.D. King run for no gain to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.9%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:0147% → 48%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
53.3%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 19 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
52.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
51.5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
51.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
52.4%
Alex Probert 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
54.6%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
54.6%
J.D. King run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
54.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
54.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
52.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah Frith, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
52.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+18
52.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Joshua Mack for 18 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
51.1%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Demario Douglas, broken up by Ty PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
51.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
52.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.2%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
52.2%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
51.7%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-5
51.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 58 yds, downed at the Liber 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5950% → 52%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
50.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
49.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+10
50.2%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
48.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-1
48.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Stephen Calvert run for no gain to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15INT
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
47.4%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-20
49.3%
S. Werts deep out pass incomplete to D. Anderson, PENALTY GS illegal block (J. Edwards) 20 yards to the GS17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 21
OWN 17
0
46.8%
Shai Werts pass intercepted Javon Scruggs return for no gain to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:3457% → 59%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
43.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 33 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah Frith, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
42.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+4
42.7%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
43.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah Frith, broken up by Kenderick Duncan Jr.Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
41.0%
Alex Probert 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17END OF HALF
12 plays · 21 yds · 1:0143% → 40%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.0%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
43.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
43.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 5 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
44.2%
Shai Werts sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 17
OWN 31
0
41.4%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+15
40.7%
S. Werts SO pass incomplete to M. Michaud (DONALDSON, K.), QB hurry by LEMONIER, J., PENALTY LIBERTY personal foul (LEMONIER, J.) 15 yards to the GS46, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik MurraySimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
42.6%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
39.6%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to NaJee Thompson, broken up by Benjamin AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5959% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
39.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
39.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+35
39.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 35 yds to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
38.4%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
21.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Alex Probert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.1%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
27.4%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
27.9%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
27.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-6
26.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
21.8%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Java'n Singletary return for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:2928% → 28%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
28.0%
Shai Werts run for 13 yds to the Liber 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
25.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 40 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
26.2%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
26.2%
Malik Murray run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 19Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+8
25.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 8 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
28.4%
Tyler Bass 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.3%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
21.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 5 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-52
21.5%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Kindle Vildor return for a loss of 52 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23FG
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2825% → 28%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+60
25.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 45 yds to the GASOUTHERN 31 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Tre'Shaun Clark) to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
29.5%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the Liber 15Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
29.5%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+2
25.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
28.2%
Tyler Bass 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
26.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
26.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
26.3%
Stephen Calvert run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 yds, downed at the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:2425% → 22%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
25.0%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
24.2%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-7
23.2%
Shai Werts sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
22.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
23.9%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
23.8%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 2
50
0
24.2%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 2
50
0
26.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
21.2%
W. Kennedy III rush over right end for 33 yards to the LIBERTY40 (ALEXANDER, B.), PENALTY GS holding (C. Kelly) 10 yards to the GS17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+2
20.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+3
20.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 3 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
19.8%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
19.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 53 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
15.7%
CALVERT, S. post pass incomplete to STUBBS, DJ, QB hurry by R. Ellis, PENALTY GS pass interference (T. Bradley) 15 yards to the LIBERTY44, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
14.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+19
14.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 19 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
14.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
13.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
14.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-2
16.3%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29FG
22 plays · 0 yds · 6:2913% → 5%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
13.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 12 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
14.6%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
15.4%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
16.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
16.2%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
15.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
17.7%
Justin Tomlin run for 3 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+11
16.5%
Shai Werts run for 11 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
18.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 2 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
18.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Peyton Backer) to the Liber 23Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
16.9%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik Murray, broken up by Benjamin AlexanderSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+5
15.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 5 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
16.7%
Tyler Bass 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-6
13.2%
T. Bass kickoff 6 yards to the GS41, on-side kick, recovered by GS K. Duncan Jr. on GS41, PENALTY GS illegal touching (M. Brinson) 6 yards to the GS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 41
-2
4.8%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 43
-12
4.8%
Team run for a loss of 12 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & GOAL
OWN 45
+12
5.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 43
0
5.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:01
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 14 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Alex Probert KICK)
-16.6
FG · Q4 1:44
Tyler Bass 35 yd FG GOOD
+11.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com