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GASO

Georgia Southern 24 at App State 21

APP
2019 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2019 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:48 · Anthony Beck II punt for 39 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+19.2Home team on offense−9.8Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +13.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 10:35: Shai Werts run for 55 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +16.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:22: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +14.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:47: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +29.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:13: Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47 — GASO win probability +18.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:54APP 4th & 9 at APP 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30GASO 4th & 2 at APP 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36APP 4th & 6 at APP 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15APP 4th & 2 at APP 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45GASO 4th & 4 at APP 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38APP 4th & 17 at APP 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:29GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:16APP 4th & 2 at APP 26, down 10
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:48GASO 4th & 2 at APP 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:54APP 4th & 11 at APP 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:23APP 4th & 8 at GASO 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:29GASO 4th & 4 at APP 24, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:41APP 4th & 10 at APP 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:38GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:05GASO 4th & 3 at APP 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−2.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:45GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−4.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:16APP 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−7.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:10GASO 4th & 7 at APP 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:20APP 4th & 2 at APP 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:03GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:06APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:22GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:35GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:22APP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:47APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0184% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 14 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
83.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
83.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
83.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 47 yds, downed at the GeoSo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:1017% → 18%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
83.2%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
83.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
83.1%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
82.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.5%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
82.1%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
50
+1
82.0%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
81.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4982% → 81%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
82.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
81.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 11
-2
81.3%
Zac Thomas sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
80.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2519% → 24%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
50
+17
80.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 17 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
80.4%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-2
80.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+16
80.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 16 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
79.5%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-1
79.4%
J.D. King run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+8
79.5%
Werts, Shai pass incomplete to Michaud, Mark, PENALTY APPALCHAN pass interference (Jean-Charles, Shemar) 8 yards to the APPALCHAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GASOUTHERN.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4577% → 75%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
76.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 12 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
76.7%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
76.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
76.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
75.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
74.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 28 yds, downed at the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1626% → 30%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
73.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
73.4%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
72.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 11 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
71.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
71.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
70.7%
J.D. King run for no gain to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
70.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik Murray, broken up by Josh ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
70.4%
Tyler Bass 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:0269% → 65%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
67.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 12 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
68.8%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 14
OWN 42
-4
67.9%
Raykwon Anderson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Hannon) to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
66.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+1
65.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 1 yd to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+15
64.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 46 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 15 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5633% → 36%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
66.7%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
64.9%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
63.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
63.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0563% → 61%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Donald Rutledge Jr.Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
62.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
60.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jessie Liptrot at the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1839% → 43%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
61.3%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
60.3%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
59.7%
J.D. King run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Colby RansomSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
57.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 9 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
57.4%
J.D. King run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
57.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 39 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 1:3956% → 71%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
55.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 16 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
55.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 11 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
55.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 9 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+10
56.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
57.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+8
56.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
57.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
57.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
70.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3334% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.8%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
65.0%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
53.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 68 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2151% → 47%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
48.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
47.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 34 yds, downed at the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:0952% → 70%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
48.3%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 2
50
-5
47.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Jarrod Leeds) to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+55
30.5%
Shai Werts run for 55 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:5633% → 28%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
33.2%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
32.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+29
31.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 29 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
34.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
34.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
33.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
33.6%
Jalen Virgil run for no gain to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+19
31.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
31.6%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+3
30.1%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
29.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
28.3%
Chandler Staton 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 6:4177% → 88%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
23.0%
J.D. King run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
21.1%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
18.8%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
18.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 7 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
16.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
14.5%
J.D. King run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
14.4%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+9
13.5%
Matt LaRoche run for 9 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
12.4%
Matt LaRoche run for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
12.3%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+2
10.8%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
11.9%
Tyler Bass 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4413% → 12%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
12.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 22 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
13.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
13.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
12.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Jessie LiptrotSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
12.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5990% → 91%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
10.4%
Malik Murray run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
9.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 23 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Peyton Backer) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
9.1%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
9.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 39 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 33 Thomas Hennigan fumbled, recovered by AppStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:138% → 24%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
8.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+20
8.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 20 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
8.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lane Ecton) to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
9.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
9.4%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
9.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
9.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
23.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5584% → 86%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
15.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 1 yd to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
15.1%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
14.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+2
14.0%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:1315% → 49%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
14.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
14.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Jessie LiptrotSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
13.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
14.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+22
13.2%
Zac Thomas run for 22 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
18.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5571% → 70%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
28.9%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
26.3%
J.D. King run for no gain to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
28.2%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+1
30.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 37 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2439% → 36%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
38.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 16 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
42.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
39.8%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 4
50
0
39.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
50
0
35.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0382% → 88%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
50
+3
17.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
16.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
13.5%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
11.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 31 yds, downed at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26Uncategorized
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:5725% → 18%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
24.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
23.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 12 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
22.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
20.9%
Thomas, Zac rush for 5 yards to the APPALCHAN33, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Hodges, Cooper) 10 yards to the APPALCHAN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+9
20.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+9
16.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 9 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+5
18.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 5 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
18.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:47
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+29.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:13
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47
-18.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com