2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreME score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:56 · Alex Smith punt for 50 yds , Scott Woods returns for no gain to the ME 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:56: Dalen Cobb run for 3 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +3.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:07: JC French IV pass intercepted Devin Vaught return for 76 yds for a TD (Samuel Tremblay KICK) — ME win probability +5.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:43: Weston Bryan run for 1 yd for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:26: JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 25 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +5.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:01: OJ Arnold pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ME made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 13:56GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snapGo for it91.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q1 8:45ME 4th & 5 at GASO 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.0%42% to convertField goal10.9%−<0.151% to makePunt10.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:46ME 4th & 7 at ME 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 11:24GASO 4th & 4 at ME 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call85.9%−0.193% to makePunt84.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 9:09ME 4th & 9 at ME 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q2 2:01ME 4th & 6 at GASO 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%40% to convertField goal11.1%−0.436% to makePunt11.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:26ME 4th & 9 at ME 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.1%−1.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q3 12:26ME 4th & 10 at ME 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.7%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q3 7:48ME 4th & 2 at ME 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.2%−0.9average punt
- Q3 5:59ME 4th & 6 at GASO 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.538% to convertField goalTheir call11.5%81% to makePunt6.0%−5.5average punt
- Q3 1:14ME 4th & 1 at ME 24, down 14Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:06GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.2%−1.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q4 12:33ME 4th & 3 at ME 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:44ME 4th & 3 at GASO 30, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goal0.1%56% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:31ME 4th & 9 at GASO 9, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.125% to convertField goal0.2%89% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:18GASO 4th & 18 at GASO 12, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ME made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:28ME Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.5%97% to makeGo for two9.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:11GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:56GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07ME Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.1%97% to makeGo for two17.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:43GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:26GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:01GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:50GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2594% → 93%
Q1 13:56
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
93.4%
Alex Smith punt for 50 yds , Scott Woods returns for no gain to the ME 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:207% → 8%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
93.2%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Sincere Baines for 4 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
93.0%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Molayo Irefin for 14 yds to the GASO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Eli Mahan for 3 yds to the GASO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · 22 yds · 0:4192% → 92%
MEDrive 4DOWNS5 plays · 18 yds · 1:468% → 9%
Q1 9:21
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+9
91.5%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scott Woods for 9 yds to the GASO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD15 plays · 68 yds · 6:0491% → 91%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
91.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
90.8%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 8 yds to the ME 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
90.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the ME 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2010% → 11%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
88.7%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Nick Laughlin for 1 yd to the ME 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7FG11 plays · 69 yds · 3:1489% → 89%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
89.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 19 yds to the ME 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
89.5%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 11 yds to the ME 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
89.2%
JC French IV pass complete to Taylor Bradshaw for 12 yds to the ME 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0212% → 12%
Q2 9:09
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
88.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Phillip Gladney at the GASO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD10 plays · 76 yds · 3:0788% → 93%
MEDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3810% → 9%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
90.0%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Declan McKevitt for 15 yds to the ME 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
89.5%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Rashawn Marshall for 11 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-1
89.1%
Carter Peevy sacked by MJ Stroud for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11INT TD8 plays · 34 yds · 0:4692% → 87%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.3%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 2 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
93.0%
PENALTY GASO False Start (Brown,Camden) 5 yards from GASO41 to GASO36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+32
92.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 32 yds to the ME 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-76
87.4%
JC French IV pass intercepted Devin Vaught return for 76 yds for a TD (Samuel Tremblay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12MISSED FG14 plays · 47 yds · 0:5586% → 88%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
86.8%
JC French IV pass complete to OJ Arnold for 12 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
87.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Taylor Bradshaw for 4 yds to the ME 48Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
87.1%
JC French IV pass complete to David Mbadinga for 9 yds to the ME 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2816% → 16%
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
82.8%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Trevin Ewing for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, (10 Yards) to the ME 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
81.6%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Sincere Baines for 3 yds to the ME 43Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+18
83.6%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 36 yds , Peyton Plott returns for 18 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+18
83.7%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 36 yds , Peyton Plott returns for 18 yds to the GASO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:3484% → 91%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
84.3%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 8 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+8
84.7%
JC French IV pass complete to Ahmon Green for 8 yds to the ME 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
84.8%
Dalen Cobb pass complete to Camden Brown for 44 yds to the ME 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15FG12 plays · 59 yds · 4:3611% → 16%
Q3 7:48
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+20
88.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Francisco Pratts III for 5 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, (15 Yards) to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
87.0%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty'ee Stephens for 12 yds to the GASO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2088% → 94%
MEDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:577% → 7%
GASODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0196% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.3%
OJ Arnold pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Trevin Ewing for no gain to the ME 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3599% → 100%
Q4 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+16
99.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 16 yds to the ME 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22INT17 plays · 56 yds · 6:140% → 0%
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Rashawn Marshall for 3 yds to the ME 39Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+24
99.9%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Gianni Rossitto for 24 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Aaron Arteaga for 7 yds to the GASO 30Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Rashawn Marshall for 4 yds to the GASO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+10
99.9%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Drezek,Caden pass incomplete short left to McKevitt,Declan thrown to GASO22 PENALTY GASO Holding (McDowell,Elijah) 10 yards from GASO24 to GASO14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.9%
(02:55) PENALTY MAINE False Start (Smalls,Elijah) 5 yards from GASO04 to GASO09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Caden Drezek pass intercepted, touchback. Elijah McDowell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
99.9%
PENALTY GASO Illegal Substitution 5 yards from GASO21 to GASO16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+1
100.0%
Turner Helton pass complete to Bryce Baker for 1 yd to the GASO 17Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 13
OWN 17
-5
99.9%
(01:21) PENALTY GASO Delay Of Game 5 yards from GASO17 to GASO12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Alex Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aaron Arteaga at the ME 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · -8 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 0:37
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+12
100.0%
Caden Drezek pass complete to Ty'ee Stephens for 12 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:43
Weston Bryan run for 1 yd for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 1:07
JC French IV pass intercepted Devin Vaught return for 76 yds for a TD (Samuel Tremblay KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q3 3:26
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 25 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
+5.6