West Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1548th
  Defense+0.1355th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.2%50th
  Defense42.4%49th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2437th
  Defense+1.1983rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1457th
  Defense+0.0858th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2043rd
  Defense+0.2437th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.5%59th
  Defense48.8%39th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.3%42nd
  Defense28.6%67th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9534th
  Defense3.0449th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.4%72nd
  Defense18.8%68th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.4%29th
  Defense16.1%38th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what West Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MD
2. W
   LIU
3. W
   VT
4. L
   OU
5. L
   TTU
6. L
   BAY
7. W
   TCU
8. W
   ISU
9. L
   OKST
10. L
    KSU
11. W
    TEX
12. W
    KU
13. L
    MINN

Bars above the line: better than expected for West Virginia.

Players, 2021

1. Jarret DoegeQB437 plays · +0.191 pts/play · 57th of 219 QBs
   1.56WAR0.82 to 2.33
2. Leddie BrownRB235 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 20th of 387 RBs
   0.80WAR0.59 to 1.05
3. Tony Mathis Jr.RB64 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 205th of 387 RBs
   0.22WAR0.18 to 0.26
4. Winston Wright Jr.WR68 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 56th of 474 WRs
   0.22WAR0.13 to 0.30
5. Bryce Ford-WheatonWR46 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 137th of 474 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.20
6. Casey LeggPK21 plays · +0.277 pts/play · 24th of 128 kickers
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.16
7. Sam JamesWR42 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 232nd of 474 WRs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.16
8. Isaiah EsdaleWR29 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 234th of 474 WRs
   0.10WAR0.08 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares West Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  61161156th of 130Roster talent: 611, 56th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19919941st of 130Recruiting: 199, 41st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  91%91%23rd of 128Returning production: 91%, 23rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.8+1.871st of 130SP+ rating: +1.8, 71st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than West Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TEXQ2 0:03 4th & 2 at TEX 31, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
2. at OUQ3 5:21 4th & 4 at OU 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at KSUQ2 10:27 4th & 3 at KSU 30, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at TCUQ4 5:39 4th & 2 at TCU 21, up 12Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. at TCUQ3 11:49 4th & 4 at TCU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs VTQ2 1:41 4th & 4 at VT 4, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at MINNQ4 14:53 4th & 4 at WVU 47, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at KUQ4 2:45 4th & 2 at WVU 28, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

87th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up West Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MD
2. W

   LIU
3. W

   VT
4. L

   OU
5. L

   TTU
6. L

   BAY
7. W

   TCU
8. W

   ISU
9. L

   OKST
10. L

    KSU
11. W

    TEX
12. W

    KU
13. L

    MINN

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at West Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.70
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.01

Game by game

• MDL 24-30 at MD57% → 3%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• LIUW 66-0 vs LIU100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• VTW 27-21 vs VT62% → 96%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +1
• OUL 13-16 at OU13% → 3%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1
• TTUL 20-23 vs TTU73% → 15%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −42, Clock −3
• BAYL 20-45 at BAY50% → 1%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −41, Clock −2
• TCUW 29-17 at TCU39% → 99%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +57, Clock +2
• ISUW 38-31 vs ISU30% → 90%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• OKSTL 3-24 vs OKST44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −48, Clock −2
• KSUL 17-34 at KSU35% → 1%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −2
• TEXW 31-23 vs TEX60% → 96%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +3
• KUW 34-28 at KU85% → 94%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +27, Clock +2
• MINNL 6-18 at MINN34% → 2%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from West Virginia's side.

Closest call

WVU 37-34 TTU (2014) - West Virginia dropped to a 5.1% win probability before pulling it out.