West Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1650th
  Defense+0.1170th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.9%56th
  Defense39.6%76th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1639th
  Defense+1.2530th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0739th
  Defense+0.0859th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2767th
  Defense+0.1470th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.5%57th
  Defense44.3%76th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.8%50th
  Defense30.7%69th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0667th
  Defense2.6773rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.7%79th
  Defense22.6%79th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.8%62nd
  Defense1.4%13th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what West Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ALA
2. W
   TOW
3. W
   MD
4. L
   OU
5. W
   KU
6. W
   TTU
7. W
   BAY
8. W
   OKST
9. L
   TCU
10. L
    TEX
11. L
    KSU
12. W
    ISU
13. L
    TA&M

Bars above the line: better than expected for West Virginia.

Players, 2014

1. Clint TrickettQB379 plays · +0.255 pts/play · 40th of 199 QBs
   1.81WAR1.24 to 2.51
2. Skyler HowardQB120 plays · +0.281 pts/play · 134th of 199 QBs
   0.63WAR0.43 to 0.84
3. Kevin WhiteWR128 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 5th of 469 WRs
   0.46WAR0.25 to 0.67
4. Wendell SmallwoodRB164 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 42nd of 350 RBs
   0.38WAR0.25 to 0.51
5. Josh LambertPK36 plays · +0.484 pts/play · 1st of 114 kickers
   0.33WAR0.22 to 0.43
6. Rushel ShellRB166 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 65th of 350 RBs
   0.30WAR0.17 to 0.44
7. Mario AlfordWR97 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 35th of 469 WRs
   0.29WAR0.11 to 0.46
8. Jordan ThompsonWR55 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 71st of 469 WRs
   0.20WAR0.13 to 0.27

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares West Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than West Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MDQ4 4:16 4th & 3 at MD 26, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at TTUQ4 13:43 4th & 2 at TTU 30, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at TEXQ2 4:37 4th & 1 at WVU 34, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. vs OUQ3 10:23 4th & 4 at OU 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at OKSTQ2 10:13 4th & 3 at OKST 46, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at OKSTQ2 0:50 4th & 6 at OKST 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs TA&MQ4 8:09 4th & 6 at TA&M 17, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs TCUQ4 14:56 4th & 4 at TCU 6, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

59th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up West Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ALA
2. W

   TOW
3. W

   MD
4. L

   OU
5. W

   KU
6. W

   TTU
7. W

   BAY
8. W

   OKST
9. L

   TCU
10. L

    TEX
11. L

    KSU
12. W

    ISU
13. L

    TA&M

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at West Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.01
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.12

Game by game

• ALAL 23-33 at ALA7% → 3%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −13
• TOWW 54-0 vs TOW97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• MDW 40-37 at MD38% → 94%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• OUL 33-45 vs OU23% → 2%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −33, Clock −2
• KUW 33-14 vs KU93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +11
• TTUW 37-34 at TTU59% → 95%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +44, Clock +2
• BAYW 41-27 vs BAY24% → 99%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +51, Timeouts +2
• OKSTW 34-10 at OKST42% → 100%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +57, Clock +2
• TCUL 30-31 vs TCU41% → 5%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −43, Clock −2
• TEXL 16-33 at TEX64% → 3%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −47, Possession & field position +2
• KSUL 20-26 vs KSU58% → 4%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• ISUW 37-24 at ISU81% → 98%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• TA&ML 37-45 vs TA&M60% → 3%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −55, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from West Virginia's side.

Closest call

WVU 37-34 TTU (2014) - West Virginia dropped to a 5.1% win probability before pulling it out.