Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 26 at West Virginia 20

WVU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2014 · Milan Puskar Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:47 · Josh Lambert 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−4.9Garbage-time factor−1.8Score differential−1.8Pregame prior+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:12: Tyler Lockett 43 Yd Punt Return (Matthew McCrane Kick) — KSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:24: Skyler Howard pass complete to Kevin White for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +12.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:13: Matthew McCrane 19 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:23: Skyler Howard pass complete to Mario Alford for 53 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +25.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 0:53: Josh Lambert 25 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +17.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:45KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 13, up 7
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:38WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:10WVU 4th & 13 at KSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:47WVU 4th & 11 at KSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:18KSU 4th & 24 at WVU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:12WVU 4th & 22 at WVU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:11KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:29KSU 4th & 13 at WVU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:18KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:13KSU 4th & 2 at WVU 2, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−13.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:20WVU 4th & 3 at KSU 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:19WVU 4th & 7 at KSU 26, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:26KSU 4th & 5 at WVU 5, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−7.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:52KSU 4th & 1 at WVU 16, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%−3.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−11.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53WVU 4th & 5 at KSU 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00KSU 4th & 21 at KSU 46, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:57KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:12KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:24WVU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:23WVU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WVUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5458% → 58%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
58.2%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 12Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
58.2%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Wendell SmallwoodSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+9
58.2%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 9 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.3%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
58.3%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
58.2%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+23
58.2%
Nick O'Toole punt for 44 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 23 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:4042% → 45%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
58.0%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+32
58.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 32 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
57.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Boston Stiverson) to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+15
57.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 15 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
57.7%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+11
57.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the WVirg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
57.6%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 12Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
57.7%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 5 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to DeMarcus Robinson for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FUMBLE
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:5456% → 56%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
56.0%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dakorey Johnson) to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
56.4%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
56.1%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 42Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+16
55.6%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for 16 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
56.3%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-3
56.1%
Clint Trickett sacked by Will Geary for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 40 Clint Trickett fumbled, forced by Will Geary, recovered by WVirg Clint Trickett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-5
55.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Thompson) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+18
55.2%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for 18 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
56.3%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+9
56.3%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 9 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.2%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
56.2%
Trickett, Clint pass incomplete to Alford, Mario, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Burns, Morgan) 15 yards to the KANSASST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
56.2%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 4 Wendell Smallwood fumbled, recovered by KanSt Dylan SchellenbergSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4946% → 46%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
54.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 3Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+5
54.2%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+5
54.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Andre Davis for 5 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
54.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Vernon Davis at the WVirg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5454% → 53%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
54.1%
Dreamius Smith run for 2 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
54.1%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Mario AlfordSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
53.2%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Dreamius Smith for no gain to the WVirg 44Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
52.6%
Nick O'Toole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Lockett at the KanSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3248% → 51%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+49
52.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 49 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
50.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the WVirg 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
50.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 13 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
50.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+15
50.0%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Sexton, Curry, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Dillon, KJ) 15 yards to the WESTVIR10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
49.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 4 yds to the WVirg 6Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
49.6%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 19 Jake Waters fumbled, recovered by KanSt DeMarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
49.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
48.9%
Matthew McCrane 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FUMBLE
15 plays · 44 yds · 4:2648% → 47%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
48.0%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
47.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Marquis Lucas) to the WVirg 21Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+13
47.2%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Rushel Shell for 13 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+7
47.4%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
48.2%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
48.3%
Trickett, Clint pass incomplete to Buie, Andrew, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Truman, Jonathan) 2 yards to the WESTVIR47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
48.3%
Dreamius Smith run for 2 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
48.1%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.4%
Dreamius Smith run for no gain to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
47.6%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 13 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.5%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Mario AlfordSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
48.3%
Dreamius Smith run for 3 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-6
47.1%
Clint Trickett sacked by Marquel Bryant for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
46.9%
Josh Lambert 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1351% → 46%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
50.9%
Clint Trickett sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+5
49.3%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
48.7%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
46.4%
Josh Lambert 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:2154% → 57%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+30
45.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 30 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
43.0%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+9
42.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 9 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
41.5%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
40.9%
Jake Waters run for 4 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-5
41.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Deante Burton) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-15
39.6%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY KANSASST personal foul (Stiverson, Boston) 15 yards to the WESTVIR45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 24
OPP 45
0
41.7%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
42.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT TD
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:5644% → 31%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
43.6%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 18Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-9
43.0%
Trickett, Clint pass complete to White, Kevin for 37 yards to the KANSASST45, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (White, Kevin) 9 yards to the WESTVIR9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 21
OWN 9
-1
42.1%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 8Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 22
OWN 8
0
41.9%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Wendell SmallwoodSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 22
OWN 8
+43
30.9%
Tyler Lockett 43 Yd Punt Return (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:4131% → 32%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
31.4%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Dreamius Smith for 13 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
31.6%
Dreamius Smith run for 4 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
32.1%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Cody Clay for 9 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
32.8%
Clint Trickett pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+21
32.2%
Clint Trickett pass intercepted Randall Evans return for 21 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0373% → 73%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
26.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 10 yds to the WVirg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
26.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4470% → 71%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
30.5%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 18Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+10
30.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 10 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-3
29.4%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
29.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Vernon Davis at the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:5231% → 32%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
30.5%
Wendell Smallwood run for 12 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
31.1%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+18
30.7%
Rushel Shell run for 18 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
31.7%
Clint Trickett pass intercepted Dante Barnett return for no gain to the KanSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:1373% → 79%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+31
26.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 16 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Shaquille Riddick) to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
24.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 12 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
23.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 21 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
23.2%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
21.3%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
21.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
21.0%
Matthew McCrane 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:4221% → 35%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
21.2%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
20.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to KJ Myers for 5 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+29
21.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 29 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
22.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Kevin White for 15 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
23.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 3 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
22.8%
Dreamius Smith run for 1 yd to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+16
22.1%
Skyler Howard run for 16 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Kevin White for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5269% → 70%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
31.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 21 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
29.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
29.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
30.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds , Vernon Davis returns for no gain to the WVirg 16 Vernon Davis fumbled, recovered by KanSt Colborn CouchmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5774% → 83%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
26.1%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+11
25.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
24.8%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the WVirg 1Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.7%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the WVirg 1Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
25.1%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 2Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
17.2%
Matthew McCrane 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19DOWNS
18 plays · 61 yds · 4:2222% → 20%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
21.9%
Skyler Howard run for 9 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+7
22.3%
Dreamius Smith run for 7 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
22.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Kevin White for 6 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
22.2%
Dreamius Smith run for 11 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
22.7%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to KJ MyersSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
21.7%
Dreamius Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
50
+1
22.1%
Dreamius Smith run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+10
20.6%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to Shorts, Daikiel, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Evans, Randall) 10 yards to the KANSASST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
22.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mark Glowinski) to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+17
21.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 17 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
23.9%
Dreamius Smith run for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
22.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Mario AlfordSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+3
20.7%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
23.4%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
22.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+3
20.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to KJ Myers for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 7
OPP 26
0
19.6%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to KJ MyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:3888% → 93%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+54
12.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 54 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
9.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
9.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 18 yds to the WVirg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
8.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 5Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
8.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 10Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
8.2%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the WVirg 5Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
6.7%
Matthew McCrane 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5215% → 38%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
14.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 9 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
14.1%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
12.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 31Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+14
11.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 14 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
12.2%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
37.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Mario Alford for 53 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:0878% → 97%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
22.1%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
20.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for 7 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
19.1%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
18.7%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+28
19.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 28 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
12.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tyler Lockett) to the WVirg 40Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+7
11.7%
Jake Waters run for 7 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+17
10.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 17 yds to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
9.6%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+32
3.1%
Matthew McCrane 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:419% → 23%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
8.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
8.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Dreamius SmithSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
8.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 2 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+17
7.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Mario Alford for 17 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.4%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Mario AlfordSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
10.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 10 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
10.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 12 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
10.8%
Wendell Smallwood run for 4 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-9
8.8%
Skyler Howard sacked by Ryan Mueller for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+10
6.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 10 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
23.3%
Josh Lambert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24INT
8 plays · -11 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 45Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 47Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 16
OPP 49
-5
4.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 21
OWN 46
+5
4.5%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Ricky Rumph return for 5 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:23
Skyler Howard pass complete to Mario Alford for 53 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
+25.4
FG · Q4 0:53
Josh Lambert 25 yd FG GOOD
+17.1
TD · Q3 6:24
Skyler Howard pass complete to Kevin White for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com