2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:19 · Casey Legg 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:24: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +8.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:32: Leddie Brown run for 44 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +12.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:53: Casey Legg 37 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:43: Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +24.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 11:14KU 4th & 2 at WVU 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snapGo for it18.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call18.8%−0.160% to makePunt18.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:18KU 4th & 3 at WVU 4, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.0%45% to convertField goal20.8%−0.293% to makePunt19.7%−1.2average punt
- Q1 2:07KU 4th & 7 at WVU 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call22.2%80% to makePunt20.1%−2.1average punt
- Q1 0:46WVU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt76.4%−0.7average punt
- Q2 2:19WVU 4th & 20 at KU 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it67.5%−2.210% to convertField goalTheir call69.7%62% to makePunt65.4%−4.2average punt
- Q2 1:40KU 4th & 18 at KU 19, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it27.0%−2.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.6%average punt
- Q3 13:33WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 30, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.7%average punt
- Q3 12:42KU 4th & 7 at WVU 43, down 8Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.8%37% to convertField goal20.8%−1.028% to makePuntTheir call21.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:06WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt63.5%−2.6average punt
- Q3 4:42KU 4th & 1 at WVU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.3%−3.2average punt
- Q3 0:31WVU 4th & 6 at KU 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.0%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call78.3%74% to makePunt71.8%−6.5average punt
- Q4 12:16KU 4th & 3 at WVU 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.9%52% to convertField goal15.2%−2.725% to makePunt16.7%−1.2average punt
- Q4 8:17WVU 4th & 1 at KU 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.4%71% to convertField goal84.7%−2.664% to makePunt78.5%−8.8average punt
- Q4 5:53WVU 4th & 5 at KU 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.4%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call88.7%75% to makePunt82.5%−6.2average punt
- Q4 3:06KU 4th & 11 at WVU 17, down 13Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−2.024% to convertField goal7.0%80% to makePunt3.5%−3.5average punt
- Q4 2:45WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 28, up 13Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:28WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:24KU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.7%97% to makeGo for two27.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17WVU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.1%97% to makeGo for two79.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:32WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:43KU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call9.5%−0.397% to makeGo for two9.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:3415% → 17%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Saint McLeod) to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
15.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 2 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+13
16.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 13 yds Kwamie Lassiter II fumbled, forced by Josh Chandler-Semedo, recovered by Kans Luke Grimm for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
16.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Steven McBride for 1 yd to the WVirg 37Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+9
16.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 9 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 2:3918% → 19%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
17.6%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 13 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:4181% → 82%
Q1 7:36
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+38
19.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 38 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
19.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kaden Prather for 21 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
18.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5FG9 plays · 61 yds · 2:5819% → 22%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
18.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 5 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+40
19.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 40 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
20.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 13 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
21.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 2 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5679% → 82%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
20.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 16 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
21.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 1 yd to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
21.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 4 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+5
21.5%
(14:26) Brown,Leddie rush for 4 yards gain to the KAN37 (Potter,Gavin) PENALTY KAN Offside (Burt,Sam) 5 yards from KAN41 to KAN36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
21.5%
Jarret Doege sacked by Zion DeBose for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+10
22.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 10 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+9
22.3%
(11:17) Doege,Jarret pass incomplete to Wright,Winston PENALTY KAN Roughing The Passer (Sampson,Caleb) 9 yards from KAN18 to KAN09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
22.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
18.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1520% → 30%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
19.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Steven McBride for 2 yds Steven McBride fumbled, forced by Saint McLeod, recovered by Kans Luke GrimmSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+20
19.1%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 20 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
20.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 36 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
29.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8MISSED FG12 plays · 48 yds · 4:5175% → 71%
Q2 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-14
24.8%
Jarret Doege sacked by Rich Miller for a loss of 14 yards to the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:2630% → 29%
WVUDrive 10TD7 plays · 59 yds · 1:0974% → 84%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
25.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 16 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+5
24.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 5 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
24.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 3 yds to the Kans 7Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
16.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11Uncategorized2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1982% → 80%
Q3 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+21
19.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 21 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4722% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0280% → 71%
WVUDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5668% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3623% → 25%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
23.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 4 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
24.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Steven McBride for 6 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
25.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 7 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-5
26.4%
(06:41) PENALTY KAN False Start (Ford Jr.,Michael) 5 yards from KAN49 to KAN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
25.0%
PENALTY WVU Offside (Alston,Taijh) 5 yards from KAN46 to WVU49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17FG9 plays · 30 yds · 4:0181% → 83%
KUDrive 18INT11 plays · 52 yds · 4:4718% → 18%
Q4 12:16
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+20
16.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 20 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19FG9 plays · 60 yds · 4:2787% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20INT10 plays · 17 yds · 2:2612% → 6%
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+8
11.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Malik Johnson for 8 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
8.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 5 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-15
7.8%
(04:02) Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete to Grimm,Luke PENALTY KAN Personal Foul (Pesek-Hickson,Amauri) 15 yards from WVU11 to WVU26. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2197% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22TD6 plays · 68 yds · 0:492% → 26%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
2.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 6 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+13
2.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
2.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 43 yds to the WVirg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
2.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 3 yds to the WVirg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23Uncategorized4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0695% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:43
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q3 8:32
Leddie Brown run for 44 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 0:17
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds for a TD KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined (Casey Legg KICK)
-8.6