Wake Forest

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2480th
  Defense+0.1638th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.4%71st
  Defense46.5%19th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3372nd
  Defense+1.2076th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1249th
  Defense+0.2022nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3686th
  Defense+0.1375th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.7%51st
  Defense50.6%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.7%91st
  Defense37.2%9th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0748th
  Defense3.3715th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.6%65th
  Defense18.2%60th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.3%57th
  Defense18.2%78th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Wake Forest allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ODU
2. W
   NORF
3. W
   FSU
4. W
   UVA
5. W
   LOU
6. W
   SYR
7. W
   ARMY
8. W
   DUKE
9. L
   UNC
10. W
    NCSU
11. L
    CLEM
12. W
    BC
13. L
    PITT
14. W
    RUTG

Bars above the line: better than expected for Wake Forest.

Players, 2021

1. Sam HartmanQB509 plays · +0.327 pts/play · 4th of 219 QBs
   3.12WAR2.17 to 4.03
2. Christian Beal-SmithRB111 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 119th of 387 RBs
   0.35WAR0.25 to 0.46
3. A.T. PerryWR102 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 16th of 474 WRs
   0.33WAR0.20 to 0.48
4. Jaquarii RobersonWR85 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 17th of 474 WRs
   0.33WAR0.22 to 0.43
5. Justice EllisonRB84 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 164th of 387 RBs
   0.28WAR0.22 to 0.35
6. Christian TurnerRB73 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 213th of 387 RBs
   0.21WAR0.15 to 0.28
7. Taylor MorinWR50 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 115th of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.22
8. Nick ScibaPK20 plays · +0.370 pts/play · 8th of 128 kickers
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.19

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Wake Forest's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58958962nd of 130Roster talent: 589, 62nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17517563rd of 130Recruiting: 175, 63rd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  92%92%20th of 128Returning production: 92%, 20th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +10.1+10.139th of 130SP+ rating: +10.1, 39th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Wake Forest's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs LOUQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. vs NCSUQ3 8:56 4th & 1 at WAKE 28, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
3. at RUTGQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at RUTG 11, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at BCQ3 10:59 4th & 2 at BC 47, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs LOUQ2 0:30 4th & 10 at LOU 41, down 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at SYRQ3 0:17 4th & 3 at WAKE 42, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. at SYRQ4 2:21 4th & 8 at SYR 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs ODUQ2 9:40 4th & 3 at ODU 39, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

15th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Wake Forest's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ODU
2. W

   NORF
3. W

   FSU
4. W

   UVA
5. W

   LOU
6. W

   SYR
7. W

   ARMY
8. W

   DUKE
9. L

   UNC
10. W

    NCSU
11. L

    CLEM
12. W

    BC
13. L

    PITT
14. W

    RUTG

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Wake Forest's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.29
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.14
• Timeouts+0.21
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.43

Game by game

• ODUW 42-10 vs ODU97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• NORFW 41-16 vs NORF99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• FSUW 35-14 vs FSU63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +1
• UVAW 37-17 at UVA36% → 100%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +61, Clock +2
• LOUW 37-34 vs LOU68% → 8%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• SYRW 40-37 at SYR65% → 88%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +16
• ARMYW 70-56 at ARMY59% → 98%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +46, Clock +3
• DUKEW 45-7 vs DUKE87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +16
• UNCL 55-58 at UNC43% → 7%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −35, Possession & field position +1
• NCSUW 45-42 vs NCSU53% → 93%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• CLEML 27-48 at CLEM41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position −1
• BCW 41-10 at BC65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +41, Clock +1
• PITTL 21-45 vs PITT38% → 0%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• RUTGW 38-10 at RUTG85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Wake Forest's side.

Closest call

LOU 34-37 WAKE (2021) - Wake Forest dropped to a 6.8% win probability before pulling it out.