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DUKE

Duke 7 at Wake Forest 45

WAKE
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:37 · Nick Sciba 26 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+21.6Home team on offense+26.2Score differential+19.9Blowout margin+7.8Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:29: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 38 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:03: Sam Hartman run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:57: Sam Hartman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:38: Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:29: Christian Beal-Smith run for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:57DUKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:23DUKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:48DUKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37WAKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 8, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:52DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 35, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14WAKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 7, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:33DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:02DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:27DUKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 22, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:02WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 26, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:29WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:57WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:38WAKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:29WAKE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52WAKE Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:17DUKE Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2787% → 87%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
86.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
86.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
86.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
86.5%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY DUKE holding (Johnson, Leonard) 10 yards to the DUKE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
86.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 38 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:2413% → 14%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
86.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
86.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-5
86.6%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jalon Calhoun) to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+23
86.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 23 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
86.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 18 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
86.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
86.3%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
86.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
86.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4287% → 86%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
86.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
86.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
86.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 52 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for no gain to the Duke 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4814% → 14%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
86.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+14
86.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 14 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+13
86.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
86.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-1
85.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+6
86.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 56 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 48 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Block (Trey Boll) to the WFrst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 3:1086% → 89%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
86.0%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
85.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+16
85.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 16 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+37
85.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 37 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
86.3%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
86.3%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
86.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
86.3%
Hartman, Sam rush for 10 yards to the DUKE17, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding 10 yards to the DUKE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+11
86.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
88.5%
Sam Hartman run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6DOWNS
16 plays · 71 yds · 5:0613% → 12%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
87.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
87.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+30
87.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
50
-1
87.3%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
87.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+15
87.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 15 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
86.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
86.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
87.0%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
87.1%
Jordan Moore run for 2 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
86.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
86.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
86.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 4 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 2
OPP 13
0
87.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:4689% → 94%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
89.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+11
89.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 11 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+17
89.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 17 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+42
89.5%
Sam Hartman run for 42 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
89.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.0%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.4%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:576% → 6%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
93.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 23 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
93.4%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+35
93.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 35 yds to the WFrst 31 Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Gavin Holmes, recovered by WFrst Traveon Redd , return for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:0295% → 97%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
94.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+13
94.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
94.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 33 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
94.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Reese) to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
94.9%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:482% → 2%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
98.1%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
98.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0398% → 99%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
98.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 3 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Christian Rorie) to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.1%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
50
+39
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 39 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
98.3%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+10
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 10 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Christian TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-5
98.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Zach Tom) to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
98.8%
Nick Sciba 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
98.8%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
98.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+2
98.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
98.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:054% → 1%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.1%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 14:29
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
98.5%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
99.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+9
99.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+36
99.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 36 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
99.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
99.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 6 yds Darrell Harding Jr. fumbled, forced by Malik Mustapha, recovered by Duke Carson Van LynnSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+1
99.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 55 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18FG
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:2299% → 100%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
99.4%
Ellison, Justice rush for 57 yards to the DUKE32, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Maginn, Sean) 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+48
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 48 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+14
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
99.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Dorian Mausi and Nate Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+13
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.6%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+26
99.7%
Nick Sciba 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.7%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+19
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 19 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+37
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 37 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+56
99.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, downed at the WAKEFOREST 26 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Cater) to the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Cameron Hite for 9 yds Cameron Hite fumbled, forced by Ryan Smith, recovered by Duke Tony DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
Leonard, Riley rush for 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST20, PENALTY DUKE holding (Monk, Jacob) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
99.9%
Charlie Ham 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
99.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dion Bergan Jr.) to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Michael Kern pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Zach Murphy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 17 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jarett Garner for 6 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+39
99.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 39 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF GAME
13 plays · 50 yds · 6:46100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 14 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Christian GreeneSimilar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 8 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
100.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 6 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
100.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:57
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q1 4:03
Sam Hartman run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 6:38
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com