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WAKE

Wake Forest 37 at Virginia 17

UVA
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2021 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:43 · Ivan Mora punt for 35 yds , Antonio Clary returns for 1 yd to the Virg 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−48.8Score differential−26.9Pregame prior+1.3Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:25: Justice Ellison 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +10.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:37: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +12.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:02: Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +16.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:02: B. Armstrong pass,to D. Wicks for 22 yds for a TD, (J. Duenkel KICK), (B. Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +12.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:42: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +13.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 6:27UVA 4th & 5 at WAKE 5, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:34WAKE 4th & 10 at UVA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:07UVA 4th & 2 at WAKE 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:26UVA 4th & 26 at UVA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:31WAKE 4th & 5 at UVA 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−8.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:37WAKE 4th & 1 at UVA 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−2.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−10.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:43UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:56WAKE 4th & 4 at UVA 17, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:14UVA 4th & 18 at WAKE 33, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:25WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 37, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:49UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 23, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:43WAKE 4th & 6 at UVA 46, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:55WAKE 4th & 6 at UVA 43, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:19WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:25WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:37UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:02WAKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:02UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:42WAKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3636% → 38%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
63.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
63.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
63.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Loic Ngassam Nya for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
63.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
50
+9
63.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
63.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
62.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 39 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2DOWNS
20 plays · 67 yds · 5:3563% → 60%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
62.5%
Mike Hollins run for 7 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-5
62.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
62.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 10 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
62.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+14
62.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 14 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
62.2%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Sulaiman Kamara) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
62.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 19
OPP 28
0
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+20
61.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 20 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
61.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 9Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
61.4%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Wicks, Dontayvion, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Taylor, Ja'Sir) 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
61.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 6Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
61.8%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the WFrst 5Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:4440% → 44%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
59.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
59.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
59.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+7
59.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
58.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
57.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Hunter Stewart) to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
57.3%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+20
57.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 20 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
56.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+1
56.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
56.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
56.2%
Nick Sciba 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:1956% → 56%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
55.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 13 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
55.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
55.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
50
+21
55.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 21 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
56.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 9 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+8
56.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
55.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+8
54.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
53.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
55.8%
Justin Duenkel 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2846% → 61%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
54.5%
Justice Ellison run for 63 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
52.1%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-3
51.9%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 11Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+8
52.2%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Nick Grant) to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.4%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
50.3%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.5%
Justice Ellison 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 7 yds · 2:4346% → 42%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jacorey Johns for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
45.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
44.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 14 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
45.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
45.8%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
45.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 16
OWN 42
-10
44.2%
Armstrong, Brennan pass complete to Thompson, Keytaon for 25 yards to the WAKEFOREST33, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding (Bissinger, Joe) 10 yards to the VIRGINIA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 26
OWN 32
0
42.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 26
OWN 32
0
41.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Mike HollinsSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
42.0%
Jacob Finn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 4:5162% → 77%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
38.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
38.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 15 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
36.5%
Christian Turner run for 9 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
35.7%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
35.4%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
34.2%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
35.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mandy Alonso) to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
33.3%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
32.7%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
32.1%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+5
31.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 5 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
28.8%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
22.9%
Nick Sciba 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8END OF HALF
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2542% → 40%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
42.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Luke Masterson for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+13
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 13 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
35.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 3 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
41.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Traveon Redd for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
40.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+1
39.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:1530% → 43%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
28.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 9 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+7
29.0%
Mike Hollins run for 7 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
28.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 21 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
30.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 31 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
30.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:2161% → 80%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
38.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
37.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
38.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+44
37.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 44 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
35.5%
Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
36.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
36.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
19.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:3222% → 36%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
22.2%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+11
22.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
22.0%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Armstead, Iraken, PENALTY WAKEFOREST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the VIRGINIA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 5
OWN 26
-6
22.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Luke Masterson for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+15
21.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr.Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+32
20.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
23.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Devin Darrington for 7 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
23.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 4 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
36.4%
B. Armstrong pass,to D. Wicks for 22 yds for a TD, (J. Duenkel KICK), (B. Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0670% → 89%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.4%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
29.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.9%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
28.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 31 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
26.2%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
25.8%
Ellison, Justice rush for 3 yards to the VIRGINIA21, PENALTY VIRGINIA offside (Smiley III, Ben) 5 yards to the VIRGINIA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
25.5%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+8
25.1%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY VIRGINIA personal foul (Smiley III, Ben) 8 yards to the VIRGINIA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
25.1%
Turner, Christian rush for 4 yards to the VIRGINIA3, PENALTY WAKEFOREST illegal formation 5 yards to the VIRGINIA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
24.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
24.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
11.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2215% → 14%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
15.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Devin Darrington for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
15.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
15.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dontayvion Wicks) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+8
14.1%
Jacob Finn punt for 42 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 8 yds to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0490% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
10.0%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-10
10.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Loic Ngassam Nya) to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 18
OWN 48
0
9.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+29
9.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 29 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
8.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-2
8.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
8.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn Williams WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Donald Stewart) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
4.4%
Nick Sciba 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 2:354% → 3%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
3.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 23 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
4.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
4.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
4.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+11
3.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 11 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
4.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 7 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-15
4.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ra'Shaun Henry) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 18
OPP 33
0
3.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
3.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 18
OPP 33
0
3.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
2.8%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
2.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
2.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 44 yds, downed at the Virg 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:303% → 2%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-7
2.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 12Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+11
2.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 11 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+27
2.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 27 yds Billy Kemp IV fumbled, forced by Ryan Smenda Jr., recovered by WFrst Malik Mustapha , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
50
+5
1.8%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-2
1.6%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+1
1.5%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+1
1.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 35 yds , Antonio Clary returns for 1 yd to the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
1.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Coby Davis return for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
1.2%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
1.2%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
0.9%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
0.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
15 plays · 93 yds · 2:481% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
0.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
0.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
0.8%
Mike Hollins run for 12 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
0.7%
Armstrong, Brennan rush for 1 yard to the VIRGINIA39, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding (Leech, Jonathan) 10 yards to the VIRGINIA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
0.7%
Devin Darrington run for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+19
0.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
0.7%
Devin Darrington run for 12 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
0.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+11
0.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 11 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
0.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 10 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the WFrst 5 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mike Hollins) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:02
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 1:42
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q3 5:02
B. Armstrong pass,to D. Wicks for 22 yds for a TD, (J. Duenkel KICK), (B. Farrell KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com