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PITT

Pittsburgh 45 at Wake Forest 21

WAKE
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 4, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:33 · Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−4.1Pregame prior−4.4Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:07: Taylor Morin 26 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +4.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:21: Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) — PITT win probability +7.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:47: Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +15.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:57: Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +10.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:42: Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Erick Hallett return for 19 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 4:16PITT 4th & 10 at WAKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:41PITT 4th & 29 at PITT 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:27PITT 4th & 1 at WAKE 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:42WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:13WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:19PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:55WAKE 4th & 20 at PITT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:01WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:19PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:29WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:52PITT 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:33WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−6.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:43PITT 4th & 29 at WAKE 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:59WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:09PITT 4th & 9 at WAKE 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:27WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:56PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 47, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:38WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 17, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:42PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:48WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:37PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:31WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 3:07WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:21PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:47PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:57PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:42PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1662% → 62%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.9%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
38.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
37.9%
Kenny Pickett 58 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4638% → 40%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
38.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Marquis Williams) to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
38.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
38.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
38.1%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
38.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+11
38.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
38.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 6 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+6
38.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
38.5%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (John Morgan III) to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.1%
A.T. Perry 5 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0661% → 63%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
39.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 18 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
39.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 35 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
37.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:0238% → 42%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
38.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
37.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
38.2%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Mathis, Damarri) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
38.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+11
38.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
38.9%
Sam Hartman run for 11 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
39.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+15
39.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
39.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
42.0%
Sam Hartman 11 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1059% → 59%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
40.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 19 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
40.3%
Vincent Davis run for 10 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
40.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 15 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
40.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
40.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
40.4%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
41.5%
Sam Scarton 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:0542% → 48%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
41.8%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
41.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
42.9%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Morin, Taylor, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Hallett, Erick) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
43.3%
Christian Turner run for 16 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
48.1%
Taylor Morin 26 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 2:1953% → 51%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
46.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-8
45.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny PickettSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-13
47.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 24
OWN 22
-5
48.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Vincent Davis) to the Pitt 17Similar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 29
OWN 17
0
49.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1449% → 49%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
49.4%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
49.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
49.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (A.T. Perry) to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+14
48.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
50.2%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 13
50
0
49.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 13
50
0
49.2%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Marquis Williams return for no gain to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5052% → 50%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
48.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
48.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
48.6%
Pickett, Kenny pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the PITTSBURGH37 (Vilain, Luiji), PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Keith, Zion) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
50
+16
47.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 16 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
47.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
47.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
48.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
49.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4052% → 51%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
51.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-10
51.7%
Hartman, Sam rush for 8 yards to the WAKEFOREST30, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Maginn, Sean) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 24
OWN 12
0
51.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 24
OWN 12
+4
51.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 20
OWN 16
+39
51.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 55 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 39 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:1551% → 58%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
49.3%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+20
49.2%
Jared Wayne pass complete to Lucas Krull for 20 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+5
48.8%
Davis, Vincent rush for loss of 1 yard to the WAKEFOREST10, PENALTY WAKEFOREST offside 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.8%
Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:0446% → 46%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.0%
Christian Turner run for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
47.3%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
46.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
46.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
45.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4958% → 54%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.8%
Jordan Addison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-3
41.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-11
42.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 40 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Luiji Vilain, recovered by Pitt Matt Goncalves , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
45.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:1648% → 47%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+33
48.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
50.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
51.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
51.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
51.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+3
50.2%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-8
49.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
46.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:5056% → 64%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
44.4%
Vincent Davis run for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
44.0%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+32
43.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
39.8%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Jacques-Louis, Shocky, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Keith, Zion) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+41
36.5%
Sam Scarton 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:5442% → 40%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
44.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
43.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
42.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
40.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
40.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3660% → 59%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Pitt 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny PickettSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+3
41.3%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+22
42.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 22 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
41.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4642% → 41%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
41.9%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
42.4%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
43.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
43.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
41.7%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
40.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3359% → 61%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
41.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 10 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
39.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
37.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
37.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 2
50
0
37.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 2
50
0
39.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1342% → 39%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
41.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
41.7%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-12
40.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Keyshon Camp for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 4Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 20
OWN 4
0
39.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:4362% → 59%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
38.2%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
39.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
36.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+15
34.9%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Smenda Jr.) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
34.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
34.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
36.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-14
37.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Chase Jones and Jasheen Davis for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 29
OPP 38
0
40.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2842% → 41%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
42.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+5
42.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 5 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
42.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
40.7%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Erick Hallett return for no gain to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:2064% → 81%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
35.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Matt Goncalves) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 15
50
+13
37.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
35.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
34.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
19.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:1522% → 21%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
22.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 17 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
23.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
25.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
24.5%
Taylor Morin run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
23.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-73
21.2%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted A.J. Woods return for 73 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2581% → 94%
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 2 yds to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.7%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-19
2.4%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Erick Hallett return for 19 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:303% → 2%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
2.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
2.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
2.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
2.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:4598% → 99%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
1.9%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
1.7%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
1.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 34
-5
1.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
1.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds, downed at the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:382% → 1%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
1.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+3
1.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 3
OWN 9
-2
1.2%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
1.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
1.0%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+1
1.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+2
0.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
0.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
1.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 5 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
0.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
0.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gavin Thomson at the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:47
Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q4 11:57
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 8:21
Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com