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WAKE

Wake Forest 55 at North Carolina 58

UNC
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 204Home team on offense+8.5Pregame prior+0.2Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:38: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 66 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:22: Ty Chandler run for 13 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +18.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:29: Ty Chandler run for 21 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +27.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:12: Grayson Atkins 25 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +26.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +27.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:42WAKE 4th & 9 at UNC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:11WAKE 4th & 1 at UNC 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:01UNC 4th & 7 at WAKE 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:07UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:51UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:16WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:24UNC 4th & 6 at WAKE 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−11.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:05UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:01WAKE 4th & 6 at UNC 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:58WAKE 4th & 2 at UNC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−4.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−21.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:12UNC 4th & 3 at WAKE 7, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−4.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−35.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:22WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:47UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:46WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:29UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:53WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:41UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:25WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:09WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:29WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:38WAKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:54UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:22UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:29UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:12UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:37WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
57.0%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 Ty Chandler fumbled, forced by Ryan Smenda Jr., recovered by WFrst Traveon ReddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0443% → 43%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
57.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
56.9%
Sam Hartman run for 23 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-4
56.8%
Beal-Smith, Christian rush for 1 yard to the UNC0, PENALTY WAKEFOREST illegal formation 4 yards to the UNC5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
56.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
56.9%
Nick Sciba 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:4457% → 59%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
56.9%
Ty Chandler run for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.9%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+13
57.2%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
57.3%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Holmes, Gavin) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
57.3%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
57.5%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
57.3%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
57.5%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
58.5%
Sam Howell run for 18 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5542% → 44%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (DeVonte Gordon) to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+24
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 24 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
57.8%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
57.3%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+16
57.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 16 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
57.4%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
57.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 4 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
55.8%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4556% → 56%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.4%
D.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
57.0%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
56.3%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:4144% → 43%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
56.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 16
OWN 25
-1
56.7%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Cam'Ron Kelly return for 1 yd to the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:3557% → 61%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
57.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 30 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
57.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
60.5%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:2941% → 47%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Turner for 12 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
58.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 12 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
58.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Turner for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-6
57.6%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Jurgens) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 9
50
+1
57.8%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
58.3%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
58.6%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
57.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+19
58.0%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Gemmel) to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
53.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0755% → 63%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.4%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY WAKEFOREST face mask (Keith, Zion) 15 yards to the UNC40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
56.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Miles Fox and Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+11
55.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+11
56.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
57.2%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
57.3%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-2
57.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+15
55.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
58.0%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+19
57.7%
Ty Chandler run for 19 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0940% → 49%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
59.1%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Williams, Ke'Shawn, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Fox, Tomari) 15 yards to the UNC47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
57.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+7
57.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
51.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 32 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:0453% → 51%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
53.2%
Howell, Sam pass complete to Downs, Josh for 13 yards to the UNC36, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass (Johnson, Quiron) 5 yards to the UNC18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
52.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 15
OWN 18
-1
52.7%
Sam Howell sacked by DJ Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 16
OWN 17
-2
51.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Jasheen Davis and Luiji Vilain for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 18
OWN 15
-11
50.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Taylor Morin returns for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 29 Taylor Morin fumbled, recovered by WFrst Taylor Morin , return for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:1048% → 47%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
51.9%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
51.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
51.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 7 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
50.3%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
50.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
51.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
53.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5253% → 50%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
52.7%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
52.8%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
51.9%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+41
50.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the UNC 48 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3750% → 63%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
49.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
48.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
47.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
47.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
47.1%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
36.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 37 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 61 yds · 0:5638% → 48%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
38.7%
Sam Howell run for 19 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
40.2%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Wingfield, Isaiah) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
41.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
41.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+31
47.7%
Grayson Atkins 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4059% → 58%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
41.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+22
42.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds , Josh Downs returns for 22 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:4645% → 51%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.0%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+45
45.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 45 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.1%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the WFrst 6Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
50.8%
Grayson Atkins 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5152% → 71%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
47.1%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.0%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.1%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
46.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
46.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kaimon Rucker) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+29
44.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 29 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
42.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
28.9%
Sam Hartman run for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1931% → 30%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
30.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
29.2%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:2770% → 85%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
30.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Desmond Evans) to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+6
29.5%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
14.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 66 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3718% → 33%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
17.6%
Ty Chandler run for 17 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
18.8%
Ty Chandler run for 15 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
19.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
18.3%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+11
17.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 29 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
33.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Quiron Johnson) to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:4573% → 85%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
25.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 7 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
24.9%
Sam Hartman run for 10 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
23.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
23.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
22.8%
Sam Hartman run for 11 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
21.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-10
21.5%
Beal-Smith, Christian rush for 6 yards to the UNC19, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Jurgens, Michael) 10 yards to the UNC35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+11
21.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
21.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
15.0%
Nick Sciba 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3216% → 36%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.9%
D.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
16.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
16.4%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
16.8%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
17.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
17.0%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
16.6%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+18
16.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Luiji Vilain) to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
16.9%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+11
16.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
34.5%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-15
36.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Tucker) to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3775% → 74%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.0%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-20
25.6%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Cam'Ron Kelly return for 20 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0636% → 64%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
64.1%
Ty Chandler run for 21 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2448% → 52%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 13 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
49.4%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dion Bergan Jr.) to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 19
OWN 29
+35
52.4%
Justice Ellison run for 35 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
46.5%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
43.7%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
45.9%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
48.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:4258% → 87%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
57.7%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
57.4%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
56.3%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
60.9%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
59.8%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zion Keith) to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
63.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 13 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
63.6%
Ty Chandler run for 22 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
65.0%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
65.1%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
62.9%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
86.6%
Grayson Atkins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:4627% → 24%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
72.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
76.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
76.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:1089% → 98%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
89.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Myles Murphy) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
50
+50
98.2%
Ty Chandler run for 50 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
98.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (William Barnes) to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:228% → 34%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
92.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 26 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
91.2%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
66.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0395% → 93%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-2
94.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-2
93.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:29
Ty Chandler run for 21 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+27.8
TD · Q4 0:37
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
-27
FG · Q4 2:12
Grayson Atkins 25 yd FG GOOD
+26.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com