South Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2276th
  Defense+0.2119th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.0%80th
  Defense48.4%8th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2260th
  Defense+1.1281st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1569th
  Defense+0.2113th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3073rd
  Defense+0.2534th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.7%78th
  Defense52.0%12th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.2%83rd
  Defense39.0%9th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0262nd
  Defense3.308th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.7%34th
  Defense16.6%17th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.4%90th
  Defense2.8%84th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what South Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TA&M
2. W
   ECU
3. W
   UGA
4. W
   VAN
5. L
   MIZ
6. L
   UK
7. W
   FUR
8. L
   AUB
9. L
   TENN
10. W
    FLA
11. W
    USA
12. L
    CLEM
13. W
    MIA

Bars above the line: better than expected for South Carolina.

Players, 2014

1. Dylan ThompsonQB465 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 16th of 199 QBs
   2.35WAR1.59 to 3.04
2. Mike DavisRB213 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 20th of 350 RBs
   0.51WAR0.36 to 0.65
3. Pharoh CooperWR117 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 10th of 469 WRs
   0.40WAR0.23 to 0.54
4. Brandon Wilds?115 plays · +0.116 pts/play
   0.25WAR0.17 to 0.34
5. Nick JonesWR56 plays · +0.141 pts/play · 120th of 469 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.22
6. Elliott FryPK18 plays · +0.412 pts/play · 27th of 114 kickers
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.19
7. Damiere ByrdWR37 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 200th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
8. Shaq RolandWR43 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 297th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares South Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than South Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at AUBQ4 5:28 4th & 14 at AUB 19, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.8 pts
2. vs ECUQ4 1:30 4th & 1 at ECU 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs UGAQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at UGA 14, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. at UKQ2 4:45 4th & 2 at UK 13, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. at AUBQ4 8:34 4th & 8 at SC 38, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
6. vs MIAQ2 1:39 4th & 3 at MIA 14, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at FLAQ1 2:15 4th & 2 at FLA 14, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at AUBQ3 4:30 4th & 6 at SC 40, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

104th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up South Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TA&M
2. W

   ECU
3. W

   UGA
4. W

   VAN
5. L

   MIZ
6. L

   UK
7. W

   FUR
8. L

   AUB
9. L

   TENN
10. W

    FLA
11. W

    USA
12. L

    CLEM
13. W

    MIA

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at South Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.69
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.23

Game by game

• TA&ML 28-52 vs TA&M74% → 0%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −64, Clock −3
• ECUW 33-23 vs ECU83% → 97%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• UGAW 38-35 vs UGA39% → 95%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +3
• VANW 48-34 at VAN92% → 98%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• MIZL 20-21 vs MIZ68% → 16%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −42, Clock −4
• UKL 38-45 at UK68% → 3%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −4
• FURW 41-10 vs FUR99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• AUBL 35-42 at AUB15% → 10%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1
• TENNL 42-45 vs TENN67% → 20%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −20
• FLAW 23-20 at FLA40% → 88%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +19
• USAW 37-12 vs USA96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +8
• CLEML 17-35 at CLEM39% → 2%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts +1
• MIAW 24-21 vs MIA42% → 96%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +3

Points of win probability, from South Carolina's side.

Closest call

SC 23-20 FLA (2014) - South Carolina dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.