2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:57 · Tyler Hull punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:26: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 53 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:14: Wayne Gallman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:55: Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:30: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 70 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:49: Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +8.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:16SC 4th & 9 at CLEM 37, tiedClose callPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it37.0%32% to convertField goal36.9%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call36.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:00CLEM 4th & 8 at SC 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snapGo for it63.1%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call63.1%58% to makePunt62.4%−0.8average punt
- Q1 1:02SC 4th & 11 at CLEM 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.0%−0.227% to convertField goal37.8%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 12:49CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 44, tiedClose callPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 9:54SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.5%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q2 3:57SC 4th & 15 at SC 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it19.8%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q2 0:22SC 4th & 1 at CLEM 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.5%71% to convertField goal20.5%−<0.151% to makePunt19.1%−1.4average punt
- Q3 13:21CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, up 11Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snapGo for it78.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%−0.9average punt
- Q3 9:56SC 4th & 20 at SC 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it17.2%−2.99% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q3 8:38CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 26, up 11Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it81.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:42SC 4th & 13 at CLEM 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snapGo for it15.6%−1.120% to convertField goalTheir call16.7%56% to makePunt15.6%−1.1average punt
- Q3 1:14SC 4th & 3 at CLEM 3, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%44% to convertField goal6.3%−1.193% to makePunt0.4%−7.0average punt
- Q4 14:05CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 8, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 12:32SC 4th & 1 at CLEM 30, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%71% to convertField goal3.4%−1.656% to makePunt2.3%−2.6average punt
- Q4 10:24CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 44, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:41SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:26CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:14CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:55CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:30CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:49SC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:35CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 3:1739% → 39%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 5 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
60.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 9 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
60.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 1 yd to the Clem 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2MISSED FG8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4861% → 61%
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+19
60.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
61.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 26 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-3
61.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5840% → 45%
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
60.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shaq Roland for 12 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
59.5%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Tony Steward for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 49Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+24
60.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 24 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
59.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shaq Roland for 7 yds to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD5 plays · 80 yds · 0:5856% → 62%
SCDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5641% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4261% → 61%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+15
59.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 15 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
60.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 15 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
60.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 10 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
61.0%
Bradley Pinion punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 15 yds · 0:4341% → 42%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
59.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 17 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-4
58.3%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 36 Dylan Thompson fumbled, recovered by Clem Ben Boulware , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD3 plays · 36 yds · 0:2763% → 69%
SCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0534% → 32%
CLEMDrive 10TD11 plays · 61 yds · 4:4769% → 77%
Q2 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
68.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 15 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
70.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
71.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 2 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2825% → 23%
Q2 3:57
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
76.9%
Tyler Hull punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1377% → 80%
SCDrive 13FG8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0925% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2977% → 76%
SCDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:5423% → 21%
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0279% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18MISSED FG9 plays · 33 yds · 3:5122% → 18%
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
78.1%
Pharoh Cooper pass complete to K.J. Brent for 20 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+7
77.4%
Pharoh Cooper pass complete to Shaq Roland for 7 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+11
77.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Jerell Adams for 11 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
75.1%
Dylan Thompson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 33 Dylan Thompson fumbled, recovered by SCaro Dylan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+3
77.3%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to David Williams for 3 yds to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
92.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 70 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 72 yds · 3:019% → 9%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+46
92.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 46 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
90.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 1 yd to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+15
91.0%
Thompson, Dylan pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul 15 yards to the CLEMSON14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4593% → 95%
Q4 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+13
94.5%
Bradley Pinion punt for 44 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 13 yds to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:086% → 6%
CLEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0297% → 97%
SCDrive 24TD10 plays · 88 yds · 2:214% → 13%
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+59
96.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to David Williams for 59 yds to the Clem 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
95.3%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shon Carson for 9 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+9
95.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (9 Yards) to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
87.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4593% → 99%
Q4 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
95.6%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (1 yards) (1 Yards) to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 30 yds · 2:052% → 2%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Jerell Adams for 5 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
97.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to David Williams for 3 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+10
97.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shon Carson for 10 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:30
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 70 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q4 7:49
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q1 2:26
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 53 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+6.3