2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Trey Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:16: Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +17.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:08: Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +11.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:33: Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +15.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:06: Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +11.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:38: Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +15.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
- Q1 9:42SC 4th & 9 at SC 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q1 5:02TA&M 4th & 3 at SC 15, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call31.3%−0.183% to makePunt29.5%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:50TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 48, up 3Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it30.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:18SC 4th & 12 at SC 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it68.0%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.7%average punt
- Q2 3:35SC 4th & 14 at TA&M 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it50.7%−0.519% to convertField goal51.0%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call51.1%average punt
- Q2 0:05SC 4th & 21 at TA&M 36, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snapGo for it34.7%−1.89% to convertField goalTheir call36.4%−0.142% to makePunt36.5%average punt
- Q3 14:23SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it33.4%−1.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.0%average punt
- Q3 1:14TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, up 17Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it87.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:05SC 4th & 10 at TA&M 27, down 24Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%−0.129% to convertField goal2.9%62% to makePunt1.6%−1.3average punt
- Q4 3:10TA&M 4th & 1 at SC 18, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goal99.0%−0.279% to makePunt98.6%−0.6average punt
- Q4 0:00TA&M 4th & 1 at SC 6, up 24Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%−0.169% to convertField goal99.6%91% to makePunt99.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:27TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.8%97% to makeGo for two26.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:44SC Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:56TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.2%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:47SC Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.8%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:07TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.0%97% to makeGo for two42.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:16TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:08TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:33SC Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.0%97% to makeGo for two20.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:06TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:38SC Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.3%97% to makeGo for two12.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:09TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%−0.297% to makeGo for two97.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1TD10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1326% → 28%
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
74.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Brandon Williams for 13 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+12
73.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cameron Clear for 12 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
73.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 2 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+22
73.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 22 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 1:3572% → 71%
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
72.3%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Armani WattsSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+14
72.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deshazor Everett) to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
71.2%
Tyler Hull punt for 47 yds , Speedy Noil returns for no gain to the TexAM 20 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FG13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3329% → 32%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
70.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+18
68.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 18 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
68.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 3 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5669% → 71%
TA&MDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4629% → 30%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 15 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+47
69.8%
Drew Kaser punt for 52 yds for a touchback TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Motion (5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2270% → 69%
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
69.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 7 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-2
69.4%
Dylan Thompson sacked by A.J. Hilliard for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Tyler Hull punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD10 plays · 85 yds · 2:1531% → 40%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
68.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 13 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
67.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 6 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+21
67.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 21 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
66.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 15 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+9
65.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 9 yds to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian Holmes, broken up by T.J. GurleySimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5460% → 68%
TA&MDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2634% → 47%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
64.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 19 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
62.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Tra Carson for 16 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
60.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 13 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
53.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT15 plays · 34 yds · 3:3255% → 50%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Corey Robinson) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
54.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 1 yd to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+16
52.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Donnie Baggs) to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
50
-2
54.9%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Donnie Baggs for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+15
53.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Victor Davis) to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD12 plays · 80 yds · 2:0949% → 71%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
51.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Trey Williams for no gain to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
51.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 21 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
50
+8
47.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 8 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
46.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 9 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+9
45.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 9 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
45.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 11 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
45.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Harris Jr.) to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12MISSED FG7 plays · 39 yds · 1:0046% → 46%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
46.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 24 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
48.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 26 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
48.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick Jones, broken up by Armani WattsSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-11
47.3%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 11 yards to the TexAM 36 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dylan Thompson) to the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3035% → 33%
TA&MDrive 15TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0268% → 86%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
32.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 21 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
30.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-9
28.0%
Kenny Hill sacked by Skai Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD11 plays · 81 yds · 3:1516% → 28%
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
15.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 6 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
14.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 11 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
13.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+17
13.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 17 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+15
12.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devonta Burns) to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD9 plays · 42 yds · 2:2179% → 94%
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
21.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 14 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
20.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 3 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
19.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:188% → 23%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
7.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Jerell Adams for 27 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+27
7.3%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 27 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0887% → 87%
Q3 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
13.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 6 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20INT4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0218% → 17%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
17.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 16 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
16.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shon Carson for 9 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
17.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Devonta BurnsSimilar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
17.2%
Dylan Thompson pass intercepted Armani Watts return for no gain to the TexAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD10 plays · 83 yds · 2:5189% → 98%
Q4 14:44
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+10
11.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 10 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
10.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 17 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
8.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 2 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+33
8.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 33 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+15
7.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 15 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 56 yds · 1:553% → 3%
Q4 11:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
3.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to K.J. Brent for 13 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
3.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 29 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+8
2.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 8 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23END OF GAME19 plays · 78 yds · 9:5598% → 100%
Q4 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+31
1.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 31 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
1.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Edward Pope) to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
1.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
1.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
50
+5
1.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 5 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+9
0.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 9 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+10
0.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 10 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:16
Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 7:33
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q3 2:38
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+15.5