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MIA

Miami 21 at South Carolina 24

SC
2014 · Duck Commander Independence Bowl · Dec 27, 2014 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:15 · Tyler Hull punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaFl 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+8.1Pregame prior−0.8Garbage-time factor+3.1Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:50: Pharoh Cooper 78 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +11.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:25: Mike Davis 15 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +6.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:43: Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Brad Kaaya Pass to Malcolm Lewis for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +20.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:13: Dylan Thompson 2 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +11.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:16: Phillip Dorsett 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +28.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:02SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56MIA 4th & 8 at SC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59SC 4th & 8 at MIA 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00MIA 4th & 1 at SC 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27MIA 4th & 3 at SC 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30SC 4th & 8 at MIA 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:10MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:58MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:39SC 4th & 3 at MIA 14, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:25MIA 4th & 12 at SC 40, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:06SC 4th & 6 at SC 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30SC 4th & 1 at MIA 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−6.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:52MIA 4th & 9 at SC 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:15SC 4th & 26 at SC 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−11.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 7:50SC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:25SC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:43MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:13SC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4842% → 43%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.2%
Mike Davis run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
42.5%
Mike Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
42.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 4 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
42.7%
Tyler Hull punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:5957% → 56%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
42.9%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
43.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
43.0%
Duke Johnson run for 14 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
42.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 11 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
42.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
43.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-5
43.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 38Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+26
43.5%
Duke Johnson run for 26 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
43.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
43.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-1
43.5%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 10Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
43.7%
Michael Badgley 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3444% → 45%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Jerell Adams for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
44.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
43.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to K.J. Brent for 11 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
44.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 22 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
44.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+9
45.5%
Dylan Thompson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
45.7%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
45.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-3
45.3%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
44.7%
Elliott Fry 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:2456% → 59%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
44.4%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+13
44.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
43.3%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+14
43.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 14 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
43.1%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+3
43.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+4
43.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 4 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+5
44.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+23
43.8%
Duke Johnson run for 23 yds to the SCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
42.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
42.3%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
42.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
40.6%
Michael Badgley 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4343% → 42%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
42.9%
Damiere Byrd run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.9%
Damiere Byrd run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
43.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
43.5%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
42.1%
Tyler Hull punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:0859% → 61%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
41.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
40.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
41.1%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+9
40.6%
Duke Johnson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
39.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Jordan Diggs for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+7
41.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
40.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-3
38.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 26 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 22 Pharoh Cooper fumbled, recovered by SCaro Damiere ByrdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1441% → 53%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.3%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+78
52.7%
Pharoh Cooper 78 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4049% → 47%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
51.1%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
52.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:2855% → 63%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
55.2%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
54.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
55.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 35 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.1%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
57.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
56.6%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
62.8%
Mike Davis 15 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 41%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.1%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Jonathan Walton return for 2 yds to the SCaro 27 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:2164% → 71%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
64.4%
Pharoh Cooper run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
65.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 13 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
66.0%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
65.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+10
64.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-13
66.9%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Anthony Chickillo for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 23
OPP 34
+3
65.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 20
OPP 31
+17
66.5%
Mike Davis run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
70.9%
Elliott Fry 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:1029% → 27%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
71.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+26
71.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 26 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
67.9%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Gerald Dixon Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
70.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
71.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
72.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:1773% → 74%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
73.0%
Mike Davis run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.4%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
73.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+58
73.8%
Elliott Fry 58 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4931% → 30%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.1%
Duke Johnson run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
68.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
68.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
68.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
70.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:4672% → 75%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
71.5%
Mike Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 17Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+4
72.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 4 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
71.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to K.J. Brent for 10 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.5%
Pharoh Cooper run for 1 yd to the SCaro 32Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
73.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 10 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.7%
Pharoh Cooper run for no gain to the SCaro 42 Pharoh Cooper fumbled, recovered by SCaro Cody GibsonSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
76.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 5 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-1
76.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
75.4%
Tyler Hull punt for 47 yds, downed at the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 5:0824% → 45%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
76.0%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
76.4%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+10
77.6%
Gus Edwards run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
77.6%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
77.5%
Duke Johnson run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
77.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+48
78.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 48 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.5%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
75.8%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.3%
Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Brad Kaaya Pass to Malcolm Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0063% → 67%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.4%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
62.3%
Mike Davis run for 9 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
63.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
65.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 8 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
65.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
69.4%
Dylan Thompson run for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-1
67.3%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:3839% → 36%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
60.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 25
OWN 24
-2
63.6%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 27
OWN 22
+16
64.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (16 Yards) to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
61.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
60.2%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
61.7%
Duke Johnson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+16
58.5%
Stacy Coley run for 16 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.9%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the SCaro 34Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
57.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-3
58.8%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+51
63.9%
Michael Badgley 51 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:5870% → 68%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
70.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 4 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
72.3%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 7 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
72.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
70.6%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
70.3%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-11
70.0%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Tyriq McCord for a loss of 11 yards to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 26
OWN 29
0
68.0%
Tyler Hull punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3634% → 34%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
65.7%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
65.9%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 29 Duke Johnson fumbled, recovered by SCaro Gerald DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:4777% → 93%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
77.3%
Mike Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+25
81.0%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 25 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.5%
Dylan Thompson 2 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:399% → 37%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
91.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+8
91.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
91.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+32
92.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 32 yds to the SCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
91.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
63.1%
Phillip Dorsett 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 8 yds · 2:1184% → 96%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
86.3%
Mike Davis run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.5%
Mike Davis run for 3 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.5%
Dylan Thompson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
93.8%
Mike Davis run for 2 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-8
96.3%
Dylan Thompson run for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:16
Phillip Dorsett 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
-28.3
TD · Q3 1:43
Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Brad Kaaya Pass to Malcolm Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.5
TD · Q4 4:13
Dylan Thompson 2 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com