Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 21 at South Carolina 20

SC
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:12 · Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick Jones
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 197Pregame prior+0.4Home team on offense−5.3Garbage-time factor−4.4Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:36: Mike Davis run for 17 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +10.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:25: Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 23 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:49: Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +21.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:36: Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +50.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:12: MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aarion Penton) to the SCaro 40 — MIZ win probability +21.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 12MIZ made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:10SC 4th & 1 at SC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17SC 4th & 4 at MIZ 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37MIZ 4th & 1 at SC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48MIZ 4th & 4 at SC 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:07SC 4th & 3 at MIZ 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:40MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:45SC 4th & 15 at SC 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:46SC 4th & 17 at SC 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:25MIZ 4th & 10 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:37SC 4th & 14 at MIZ 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:57MIZ 4th & 20 at MIZ 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:55MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:14SC 4th & 6 at SC 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:32MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:40SC 4th & 9 at SC 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:47MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:40MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:06SC 4th & 5 at midfield, up 6
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:39MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:17SC 4th & 4 at SC 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:38MIZ 4th & 16 at MIZ 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:40SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:58MIZ 4th & 1 at SC 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−8.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−9.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:36MIZ 4th & 1 at SC 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−21.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−28.8
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:12SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:06MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:36SC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:25SC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:49MIZ Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:36MIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−4.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4568% → 68%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
68.0%
Mike Davis run for 4 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
67.9%
Damiere Byrd run for 1 yd to the SCaro 38Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
67.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 4 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
67.8%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:4933% → 34%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
67.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 15 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
67.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SCaro 22Similar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 5
OPP 22
0
67.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Gavin OtteSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
67.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 4 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
66.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4167% → 66%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.6%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
66.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kentrell Brothers) to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Damiere ByrdSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
66.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 7 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-1
66.4%
Mike Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
65.9%
Tyler Hull punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:0634% → 38%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
65.6%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+14
65.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 14 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
65.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 16 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
64.3%
Maty Mauk run for 10 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
63.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-1
63.4%
Maty Mauk sacked by J.T. Surratt for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
63.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Lawrence Lee for 8 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
63.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
62.6%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+7
62.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 7 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
62.4%
Andrew Baggett 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2863% → 65%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
62.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 27 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
63.8%
Mike Davis run for 6 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+14
63.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
63.9%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
63.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+2
62.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 2 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
64.5%
Elliott Fry 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2136% → 36%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
63.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
64.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
64.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4364% → 62%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.6%
Brandon Wilds run for 5 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
63.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 4 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-4
63.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-12
62.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jerell Adams) to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+3
62.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 3 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+23
62.0%
Tyler Hull punt for 49 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 23 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4138% → 38%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 9 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+1
60.9%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
61.0%
Marcus Murphy run for 8 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
60.8%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-25
62.5%
Maty Mauk sacked by Gerald Dixon for a loss of 25 yards to the SOCAROLINA 48 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Maty Mauk) to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 28
OWN 48
0
62.1%
Christian Brinser punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0262% → 60%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
62.3%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Matt Hoch for a loss of 12 yards to the SCaro 8Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+10
61.8%
Mike Davis run for 10 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-5
60.8%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 13Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
60.3%
Tyler Hull punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1740% → 38%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
50
0
59.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
50
0
59.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
50
0
60.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 10
50
0
61.8%
Christian Brinser punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:4262% → 57%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
61.5%
Mike Davis run for 2 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
60.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
59.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 15 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
61.7%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
62.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
61.8%
Dylan Thompson run for 5 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Damiere ByrdSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
61.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 9 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
61.5%
Dylan Thompson run for 3 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
61.7%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+5
59.9%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
58.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
57.3%
Tyler Hull punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:3442% → 42%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
58.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (T.J. Gurley) to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
56.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 15 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
55.2%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-15
55.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Lawrence Lee) to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
56.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+24
57.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 24 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:1260% → 72%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
60.3%
Mike Davis run for 3 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
60.3%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
60.0%
Mike Davis run for 11 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
60.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 24 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
71.6%
Mike Davis run for 17 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3831% → 30%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
69.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
69.7%
Christian Brinser punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:3768% → 67%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
67.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 11 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
68.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 9 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
69.7%
Pharoh Cooper run for no gain to the SCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-5
69.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Shaq Roland) to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
67.1%
Tyler Hull punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
69.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2233% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
65.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Gavin Otte for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.7%
Christian Brinser punt for 33 yds, downed at the SCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4670% → 66%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
68.8%
Mike Davis run for 1 yd to the SCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
66.1%
Tyler Hull punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4533% → 32%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
66.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-5
66.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Connor McGovern) to the Misso 9Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+17
67.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 17 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
66.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
66.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
66.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0068% → 75%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
67.7%
Mike Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 28Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
67.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 8 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
68.6%
Mike Davis run for 9 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
70.3%
Mike Davis run for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+47
70.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 47 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.1%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
72.1%
Dylan Thompson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-11
70.6%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Harold Brantley for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+41
74.8%
Elliott Fry 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5828% → 26%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (Maty Mauk) to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
71.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
73.6%
Christian Brinser punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 5:1674% → 78%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.4%
Mike Davis run for 7 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
75.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
75.0%
Dylan Thompson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
75.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 6 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-3
77.3%
Pharoh Cooper run for 7 yds to the SCaro 46 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shaq Roland) to the SCaro 36Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
78.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 6 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
78.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.4%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 5
50
+4
80.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shaq Roland for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-4
80.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Rory Anderson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 5
50
0
79.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 5
50
0
78.4%
Tyler Hull punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bud Sasser at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2227% → 25%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
72.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 3 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
72.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
73.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
74.7%
Christian Brinser punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0880% → 78%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
79.8%
Mike Davis run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
80.7%
Mike Davis run for 4 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
80.1%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+1
78.4%
Tyler Hull punt for 45 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 1 yd to the Misso 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2527% → 23%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
72.7%
Maty Mauk run for 25 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
70.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
72.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-1
72.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
76.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+9
76.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 40 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 9 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:5484% → 96%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
83.6%
Brandon Wilds run for 9 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
85.7%
Brandon Wilds run for 9 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.1%
Dylan Thompson run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
86.3%
Mike Davis run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
86.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 6 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
87.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 11 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
87.4%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+23
95.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 23 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:228% → 31%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+41
92.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 41 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
91.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 26 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0186% → 86%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
86.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
86.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 2 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+22
85.7%
Tyler Hull punt for 48 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 22 yds to the Misso 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29TD
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:0026% → 71%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
75.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
77.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
81.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 3 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
79.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Harris Jr.) to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
77.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 22 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
78.7%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 2Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1548% → 41%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.1%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.5%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -20 yds · 0:4681% → 84%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
19.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aarion Penton) to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 25
OPP 40
-2
21.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 27
OPP 42
-3
16.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:36
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
-50.8
TD · Q4 6:49
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
-21.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:12
MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aarion Penton) to the SCaro 40
-21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com