Navy

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2685th
  Defense+0.2022nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense50.4%94th
  Defense48.7%7th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1223rd
  Defense+1.0297th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3196th
  Defense+0.1819th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0715th
  Defense+0.2532nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.9%97th
  Defense52.4%11th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.8%49th
  Defense38.2%12th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4698th
  Defense3.415th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.7%96th
  Defense14.7%9th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.5%81st
  Defense1.3%7th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Navy allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   OSU
2. W
   TEM
3. W
   TXST
4. L
   RUTG
5. L
   WKU
6. L
   AF
7. W
   VMI
8. W
   SJSU
9. L
   ND
10. W
    GASO
11. W
    USA
12. W
    ARMY
13. W
    SDSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Navy.

Players, 2014

1. Keenan ReynoldsQB337 plays · +0.331 pts/play · 22nd of 199 QBs
   2.09WAR1.41 to 2.83
2. Noah CopelandFB118 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 74th of 350 RBs
   0.29WAR0.18 to 0.40
3. Chris SwainFB84 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 102nd of 350 RBs
   0.23WAR0.13 to 0.31
4. DeBrandon Sanders?24 plays · +0.134 pts/play
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08
5. Jamir TillmanWR34 plays · +0.069 pts/play · 363rd of 469 WRs
   0.04WAR0.00 to 0.09
6. Austin GrebePK5 plays · +0.444 pts/play · 102nd of 114 kickers
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Navy's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Navy's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ4 6:31 4th & 1 at NAVY 22, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.7 pts
2. vs SJSUQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at SJSU 2, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
3. at TEMQ4 2:08 4th & 1 at TEM 26, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. at TXSTQ3 6:51 4th & 1 at midfield, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at TEMQ4 15:00 4th & 2 at NAVY 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. at AFQ4 12:34 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs NDQ4 0:50 4th & 22 at NAVY 19, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs OSUQ4 6:57 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

46th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Navy's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   OSU
2. W

   TEM
3. W

   TXST
4. L

   RUTG
5. L

   WKU
6. L

   AF
7. W

   VMI
8. W

   SJSU
9. L

   ND
10. W

    GASO
11. W

    USA
12. W

    ARMY
13. W

    SDSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Navy's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.70
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.56

Game by game

• OSUL 17-34 vs OSU8% → 1%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −15
• TEMW 31-24 at TEM56% → 83%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +41, Possession & field position −2
• TXSTW 35-21 at TXST77% → 99%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position +1
• RUTGL 24-31 vs RUTG62% → 6%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• WKUL 27-36 vs WKU65% → 4%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −54, Clock −4
• AFL 21-30 at AF61% → 3%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• VMIW 51-14 vs VMI99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• SJSUW 41-31 vs SJSU75% → 96%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• NDL 39-49 vs ND15% → 4%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −25, Clock −1
• GASOW 52-19 vs GASO59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −1
• USAW 42-40 at USA68% → 91%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +36, Clock +3
• ARMYW 17-10 at ARMY83% → 96%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• SDSUW 17-16 at SDSU37% → 92%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +52, Clock +4

Points of win probability, from Navy's side.

Closest call

NAVY 27-24 TULN (2020) - Navy dropped to a 3.6% win probability before pulling it out.