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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:10 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:08: Gary Nova run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +10.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:50: Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Justin Goodwin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +12.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:20: Gary Nova run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +20.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:26: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 13:47RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 7Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it34.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:15NAVY 4th & 4 at RUTG 23, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it67.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call67.8%−0.170% to makePunt66.7%−1.2average punt
- Q1 3:45RUTG 4th & 2 at NAVY 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.1%57% to convertField goal31.7%−0.538% to makePunt31.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:53RUTG 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call37.1%−0.593% to makePunt34.3%−3.3average punt
- Q2 14:53NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.3%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q3 12:52NAVY 4th & 5 at RUTG 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it39.6%−0.640% to convertField goalTheir call40.2%80% to makePunt33.6%−6.5average punt
- Q3 6:20NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.6%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q3 5:40RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it77.6%−1.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 46, down 14Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:11RUTG 4th & 1 at NAVY 25, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.4%71% to convertField goalTheir call91.8%−1.666% to makePunt87.6%−5.8average punt
- Q4 4:40RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it85.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:47NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:45RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.8%97% to makeGo for two34.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:08RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:50NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.7%97% to makeGo for two56.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:20RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:26NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call14.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two14.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
61.9%
Paul James run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 25 Paul James fumbled, forced by Jordan Drake, recovered by Navy Quincy AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD3 plays · 25 yds · 1:0062% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
62.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Desmon Peoples for 4 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.3%
Tim Gleeson punt for 45 yds , Parrish Gaines returns for no gain to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4MISSED FG13 plays · 56 yds · 4:2963% → 65%
RUTGDrive 5TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:3036% → 39%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
64.0%
Paul James run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 44 Paul James fumbled, forced by Chris Johnson, recovered by Rutgr N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
61.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, forced by Darius Hamilton, recovered by Rutgr Quanzell LambertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7FG7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3941% → 42%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
59.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 19 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-15
59.0%
Reynolds, K rush for 2 yards to the NAVY36 (Longa, Steve), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (Binns, E.K.) 15 yards to the NAVY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+17
57.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 17 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:5342% → 55%
NAVYDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1846% → 61%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Brendan Dudeck, broken up by Gareef GlashenSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
45.8%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 13 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+17
45.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Williams-Jenkins for 17 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+27
48.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 27 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD11 plays · 91 yds · 3:2343% → 65%
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0840% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
39.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 53 yds to the Rutgr 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-7
43.6%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by David Milewski for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 31
+14
41.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for 14 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14TD13 plays · 63 yds · 6:3259% → 82%
Q3 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+27
42.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Desmon Peoples for 27 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
RUTGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
NAVYDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 3:0519% → 18%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
19.6%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 10 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
21.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 8 yds to the Navy 48 RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-1
22.6%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 47 Ryan Williams-Jenkins fumbled, forced by Lorenzo Waters, recovered by Navy Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
18.3%
Pablo Beltran punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18MISSED FG15 plays · 57 yds · 7:4286% → 94%
NAVYDrive 19TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:456% → 26%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
6.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
6.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+39
7.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Noah Copeland for 39 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
26.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4686% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS13 plays · 55 yds · 2:5521% → 18%
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+15
26.9%
Reynolds, K sacked for loss of 7 yards to the RU47 (Hamilton, Dariu), PENALTY RU personal foul (Hamilton, Dariu) 15 yards to the RU25, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
28.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by David Milewski for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 33 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan Reynolds , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+17
24.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 17 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
28.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Gareef GlashenSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
28.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Andre Hunt for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 0
OPP 16
-3
24.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Kemoko Turay and Quentin Gause for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:20
Gary Nova run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-20.4
TD · Q4 5:26
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q2 0:27
Justin Goodwin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-12.1