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ND

Notre Dame 49 at Navy 39

NAVY
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Northwest Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:53 · Pablo Beltran punt for 51 yds , Cody Riggs returns for no gain to the NDame 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior−31.5Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:29: Geoffrey Whiteside 13 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +15.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 4:09: Chris Swain 4 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +24.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Everett Golson 3 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick) — ND win probability +22.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:22: Tarean Folston 25 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick) — ND win probability +9.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:18: Chris Swain 12 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Keenan Reynolds Pass to Geoffrey Whiteside for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +28.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:53NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:49NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:18NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 7 at ND 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:01NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:21ND 4th & 25 at ND 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−6.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:30NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:45NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:32NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:57ND 4th & 7 at NAVY 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:43ND 4th & 8 at NAVY 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:50NAVY 4th & 22 at NAVY 19, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:08ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:00NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:53ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:06ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:15ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:30NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:29NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:09NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:55ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:22ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:18NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:27ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:4285% → 85%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
14.8%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+78
15.0%
C.J. Prosise 78 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0015% → 19%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
15.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
15.2%
Noah Copeland run for 8 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
15.4%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.5%
Demond Brown run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
15.8%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
16.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
16.2%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
16.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
16.7%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 5 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
17.0%
Dishan Romine run for no gain to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
18.7%
Thomas Wilson 26 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0082% → 83%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
18.0%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
17.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey Robinson, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+19
18.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 19 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
18.0%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
18.1%
Tarean Folston run for 26 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
18.3%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
18.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.8%
Ben Koyack 2 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5717% → 17%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.5%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
17.3%
Pablo Beltran punt for 51 yds , Cody Riggs returns for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:3983% → 86%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
17.5%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
17.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
17.5%
Everett Golson run for 12 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
17.3%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+21
17.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 21 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
17.2%
Cam McDaniel run for 5 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
17.3%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+10
17.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 10 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.4%
Cam McDaniel run for no gain to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.5%
Everett Golson 5 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0615% → 15%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
15.3%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
15.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 10 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
15.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 1 yd to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
15.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-1
15.3%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
14.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 47 yds, downed at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:2186% → 90%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
14.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+8
14.3%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
14.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 14 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
13.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
13.5%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
13.9%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+36
14.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 36 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.8%
William Fuller 4 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:3510% → 15%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan Williams-JenkinsSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+24
10.0%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 24 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
10.8%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 18 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
10.9%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
11.2%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
10.9%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
10.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
10.9%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
10.8%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
15.1%
Demond Brown 18 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:4686% → 88%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
13.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
12.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
12.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for 7 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
11.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
12.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
12.0%
Everett Golson pass intercepted George Jamison return for 14 yds to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:1514% → 18%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
14.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Williams-Jenkins for 42 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
16.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+3
15.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
17.5%
Austin Grebe 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2117% → 34%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
17.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
16.3%
Dishan Romine run for 13 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
17.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
18.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
18.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 12
50
+6
18.1%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
18.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
17.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
17.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
18.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
17.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
18.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 12 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
18.4%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
34.0%
Geoffrey Whiteside 13 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0474% → 71%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.3%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
25.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-15
27.1%
Everett Golson sacked by Obi Uzoma and Bernard Sarra for a loss of 15 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
29.4%
Kyle Brindza punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1229% → 53%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
29.2%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 16
OWN 28
+1
28.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+2
28.1%
Dishan Romine run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+11
26.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 11 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+54
29.1%
Noah Copeland run for 54 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.3%
Chris Swain 4 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0555% → 79%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
45.5%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
44.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 6 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
45.4%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
45.7%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+19
45.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 19 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
42.6%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+9
42.3%
Everett Golson run for 9 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
42.8%
Amir Carlisle run for 5 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+9
43.2%
Everett Golson run for 9 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.6%
Everett Golson 3 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1029% → 29%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.0%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
31.2%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
30.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
29.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
30.2%
Noah Copeland pass incomplete to Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
28.6%
Pablo Beltran punt for 47 yds , Cody Riggs returns for no gain to the NDame 14 Cody Riggs fumbled, recovered by NDame Cody RiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:1879% → 89%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+61
20.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 46 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
11.0%
Tarean Folston 25 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4813% → 10%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
12.8%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
12.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
10.4%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2591% → 90%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
9.3%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
8.7%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
9.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
10.1%
Kyle Brindza 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4611% → 10%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
11.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
10.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
11.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
11.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
10.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted Justin Utupo return for 7 yds to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2293% → 92%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.2%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
7.4%
Cam McDaniel run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
7.3%
Everett Golson run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
7.9%
Kyle Brindza 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Bernard SarraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:178% → 40%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
7.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
7.4%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+33
8.3%
Noah Copeland run for 33 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
11.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 21 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
40.2%
Chris Swain 12 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Keenan Reynolds Pass to Geoffrey Whiteside for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4382% → 96%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
18.2%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
17.5%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
15.5%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+30
10.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 30 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
8.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.0%
Everett Golson 8 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:355% → 4%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
4.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Matthias Farley for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 21
OWN 20
-7
4.3%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Matthias Farley and Nyles Morgan for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 28
OWN 13
+6
4.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 22
OWN 19
0
3.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr., broken up by Matthias FarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4596% → 96%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:18
Chris Swain 12 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Keenan Reynolds Pass to Geoffrey Whiteside for Two-Point Conversion)
+28.9
TD · Q3 4:09
Chris Swain 4 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)
+24.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Everett Golson 3 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)
-22.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com